Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[jlauderdal]

The forecasted track of the GFS's low shifted westward in the 06 run to SE Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

rule of thumb is you want to be in the cone 5 days and beyond because your chances of getting hit are minimal

[Meso]

As for the BOC,I`m not sure about other factors but I remember seeing the SSTs there being about 2 degrees above average

[wxman57]

Could something develop in the BOC then if the voricity does eventually reach there and also what role would Alma's remains have on any such chances wxman57?

Remnants of Alma (the vorticity) would be the main cause of storms over the BoC. Chances of development there are about as good as any time storms develop over the area. Maybe in the 10% to possibly 20% range.

Here's a west Caribbean satellite shot with surface obs. Clearly shows pressures a bit on the high side. No circulation evident, just some weak northwesterly sea breeze winds on the islands.

[KWT]

Ok fair enough thanks wxman57, so the exact track that Alma's remains takes could be quite key to watch, esp if a good chunk of the higher voricity with the remains can get back over the warm waters.

Also whilst its not got circulation it does look good, sure not expecting anything from it but it has a nice shape even if that is all by chance.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks to me like there is some low or middle level circulation under or near that convection, but that is with my untrained eyes.

Curious to how you were detecting any circulation with so few visible shots?

[gatorcane]

The GFS is breaking down the Texas-GOM ridge gradually over the next 96 hours which would allow something to enter the GOM. Since the GFS has not even picked up on any cyclogenesis where the deep convection is at future movement is not certain yet.

[KWT]

Yeah the models seem uuncertain as to whether to weaken the ridge or not. I suspect we will see slow weakening of the ridge but to what extent will obviously be key. To be fair Gatorcane the GFS does have fairly heavy precip where the deep convection is presently so I do think it knows it there.

[boca]

I think we'll break a record for the latest start of rainy season ever. So far were 10 days late.No relief from Alma or its moisture its too bad because those fires will just start up again.

[gatorcane]

I think we'll break a record for the latest start of rainy season ever. So far were 10 days late.No relief from Alma or its moisture its too bad because those fires will just start up again.

Boca I suspectecd this May would be below normal, it's why I started the Lushine May Theory thread where Lushine increases the likelyhood of a South Florida hurricane strike later in the season if May rainfall is below 5 inches which we are. It will be interesting to see how this season pans out for Florida.

[boca]

I think we'll break a record for the latest start of rainy season ever. So far were 10 days late.No relief from Alma or its moisture its too bad because those fires will just start up again.

Boca I suspectecd this May would be below normal, it's why I started the Lushine May Theory thread where Lushine increases the likelyhood of a South Florida hurricane strike later in the season if May rainfall is below 5 inches which we are. It will be interesting to see how this season pans out for Florida.

During the 42 complete years, the earliest date for the beginning of the summer season was April 16 and the latest was June 3. This is a variation of 49 days. the median date for the onset of the summer season during these 42 years was May 21st.

That record will be smashed this year.

[Vortex]

Interesting stats regarding the onset to the rainy season here in sunny SFL. However, mother nature always balances herself out so I look for the potential for several flooding rain threats this summer. Possibly in June, late August-Mid September or October.

[wxman57]

I plotted a 400-700mb streamline forecast for 10am Sunday. That high builds over west Texas through the weekend then slips southward early next week. Anything remaining in the BOC should be pushed south or southwest into Mexico:

[gatorcane]

how about Nicaragua, it seems to be a hurricane magnet picking up where it left off last year..

[NDG]

Definitely a broad circulation now in the SW corner of the GOH this morning, surface pressures on the coast of Honduras are around 1008mb.

[Chacor]

From the final Alma discussion just issued:

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...
ASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...PREVAILS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

[Blown Away]

Following a June track if Alma were a typical NW Caribbean storm.

[Frank2]

Per the map provided by wxman57, it looks like the remnants of Alma and anything else will be moved southwest - that's a fairly strong high to the north...

I might be wrong, but, this sounds very similar to last season...

[HouTXmetro]

May be nothing there, but the convection in the Carribean appears to be getting somewhat organized.

[ColdFusion]

So we're not ready for Dr McCoy to call this thread yet? I thought WXMAN57 would have posted his graphic by now!

[Aric Dunn]

true from wxman the surface winds are hard to find. as the mountains of done a good job disrupting the circulation closest to the surface but visible satellite clearly shows the remnant circulation over the waver where i have circled in red .. i wold not be surprised to see a center reform farther east . also the broad circulation is not moving very fast right now.. by no means is this over yet lol..




and run this loop .. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html