2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hurricaneman]

That big blob in west Africa the 0zGFS wants to develop it in the western Caribbean so it will have to be watched as it seems off and on on the GFS the last few days

This wave may be the start of the crazy to come

[Steve]

ICON is pretty aggressive for next weekend (7 1/2 days). I haven't been following Josephine or Kyle and probably won't unless they become threats. But it appears to move Kyle out and replace it with another mid-ocean system which is Josephine coming up and then looping back while 2 storms spin and move west in the tropics. Could be on Nana by Saturday with only Josephine with a shot at becoming a hurricane in that time-frame per the ICON. As we have been discussing the last several storms, it has had some recent successes in both track and placement of future low pressure. Like I said, I've been watching it since Levi put it out to see if I'm going to nix it and not waste my time with it (ala NAVGEM) or if I will put a little bit of trust in it. I'm still up in the air and will be for a while. But it's been getting a passing grade recently for some of what it has shown. I still think the resolution it runs in it may be helping it with some of the weaker systems. I don't know that for sure of course. But it has been tending to show things 5-7 days in advance that end up being near where it had them. We'll see if we get a M and N or not this week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 500&fh=180

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Euro operational is now showing a TD in the MDR in the last few frames of its 00z run.


Also EPS is starting to light up quite a bit. Three significant clusters:
1. MDR
2. Caribbean
3. Bay of Campeche

[AxaltaRacing24]

Euro operational is now showing a TD in the MDR in the last few frames of its 00z run.
https://i.ibb.co/7W8Qq1g/ecmwf-uv850-vort-eatl-fh144-240.gif

Also EPS is starting to light up quite a bit. Three significant clusters:
1. MDR
2. Caribbean
3. Bay of Campeche
https://i.ibb.co/MnL1SQZ/ecens-2020-08-15-00-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

the riding that the euro is showing is also borderline scary if that were to ever play out.

[Cpv17]

ICON is pretty aggressive for next weekend (7 1/2 days). I haven't been following Josephine or Kyle and probably won't unless they become threats. But it appears to move Kyle out and replace it with another mid-ocean system which is Josephine coming up and then looping back while 2 storms spin and move west in the tropics. Could be on Nana by Saturday with only Josephine with a shot at becoming a hurricane in that time-frame per the ICON. As we have been discussing the last several storms, it has had some recent successes in both track and placement of future low pressure. Like I said, I've been watching it since Levi put it out to see if I'm going to nix it and not waste my time with it (ala NAVGEM) or if I will put a little bit of trust in it. I'm still up in the air and will be for a while. But it's been getting a passing grade recently for some of what it has shown. I still think the resolution it runs in it may be helping it with some of the weaker systems. I don't know that for sure of course. But it has been tending to show things 5-7 days in advance that end up being near where it had them. We'll see if we get a M and N or not this week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 500&fh=180

Aren’t you forgetting the L storm?

[Steve]

Yeah. It showed the possible L storm as weak tropical or subtropical originating behind Kyle off the SC Coast in 3 days but ahead of Josephine (from the 00z run). I forgot to put that part in the post. That feature shows up again in the 06z run but it’s more of a coastal low though it shows up better in the lower levels. It brushes Nova Scotia. It was late night for me.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1294615596978655237

[NDG]

http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1294615596978655237?s=20

So in another words, the GFS's forecast past 5-7 days needs to be dismissed especially on the sypnotic set up.

[Hurricaneman]

http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1294615596978655237?s=20

So in another words, the GFS's forecast past 5-7 days needs to be dismissed especially on the sypnotic set up.

Basically, it shows the CCKW and MJO going west after day 7 so it’s forecast guidance is basically garbage in garbage out

[toad strangler]

http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1294615596978655237?s=20

So in another words, the GFS's forecast past 5-7 days needs to be dismissed especially on the sypnotic set up.

I don't see any other way to look at it.

[BYG Jacob]

Can we bring back the CLIPPR?

[SFLcane]

http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1294615596978655237?s=20

So in another words, the GFS's forecast past 5-7 days needs to be dismissed especially on the sypnotic set up.

Looks more long range Day 7-10.

[NDG]

http://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1294615596978655237?s=20

So in another words, the GFS's forecast past 5-7 days needs to be dismissed especially on the sypnotic set up.

Looks more long range Day 7-10.

Well, I still don't trust anything from the GFS past its 5-7 day range

[Steve]

ICON shows a spin heading into the Yucatán Channel and another south of the DR next Saturday at 7pm CDT. Whether these are L&M or M&N is unclear. We will see shortly if GFS and Canadian 12z will show anything similar.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=180

[Steve]

^^ Running it at 500mb shows a weakness in the north central gulf splitting back toward the SW and an upper ridge north of the spins.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=180

[aspen]

ICON shows a spin heading into the Yucatán Channel and another south of the DR next Saturday at 7pm CDT. Whether these are L&M or M&N is unclear. We will see shortly if GFS and Canadian 12z will show anything similar.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=180

The first disturbance is likely from the AEW currently in the middle of the MDR, while the second is the massive wave still over Africa.

[lsuhurricane]

Appears that the 12z GFS is picking up on the same wave that ICON is developing, albeit slightly less developed. Looks like we got something to track ladies and gents! (and within 200 hrs!)

Main differences are how the EPAC storm is modeled. GFS intensifies the EPAC storm into a hurricane while the ICON has very little development. No doubt the shear from storm is the main culprit in the final output.

ETA: One more add, Canadian output is going bananas and mirroring the ICON output. Hurricane in Eastern GOM at 190 hrs. Hurrricane also crossing the Leeward/Windward Islands.

[aspen]

12z CMC develops both the central MDR wave and the African coast wave, and has Laura and Marco by August 23rd. The first wave remains undeveloped for most of the run, but curves into the Gulf and becomes Laura. The second wave becomes Marco by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

[EquusStorm]

And this, this is your regularly scheduled yearly sudden global model activity explosion right on time on August 15th.

[sma10]

And this, this is your regularly scheduled yearly sudden global model activity explosion right on time on August 15th.

And also a reminder that the CMC has vastly outperformed the GFS in terms of genesis this year