TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[DESTRUCTION5]

Any thoughts on what Stewart mentioned in the discussion re: possible center being down at 21N?

If you look at the loop, there appears to be a definite spin down at 21N.

Har to Discern but thier making it sound like they are not buying any N Component over the next 3 days...Any further left will put FL back in the Picture...

[gatorcane]

Any thoughts on what Stewart mentioned in the discussion re: possible center being down at 21N?

If you look at the loop, there appears to be a definite spin down at 21N.

It's still difficult to make out a center but I think its in the southern part of the wave, where the convection is boiling...if that is true and it moves west today...look for another left shift today possibly moving it into the FL east coast.

[du1st]

I thought flordia was in the picture.

[ALhurricane]

Based on the latest visible imagery, it appears the center may be just to the north and east of where the NHC has it. I don't see anything down at 21N.

[feederband]

Tell you what definitely looks like a whole different animal today....Irene still could become one of those infamous I storms....

[Patrick99]

Tell you what definitely looks like a whole different animal today....Irene still could become one of those infamous I storms....

Yeah, it looks great - especially considering how pathetic it looked yesterday evening.

[krisj]

I just need to say that I am so darn frustrated with this storm/depression. I feel like one minute it is FLorida, next a fish, then NC or Va. Then there is it is dying then no, it may strenghten.

I don't know what to think anymore. I guess there is no use worrying until this weekend. By then it will probably be going to Maine.

[Skyline]

Well, well, well . . .

Irene has made it another day.

She still has good outflow to the north, and is continuing to improve east and west of the rather undefined circulation. She's starting to get a more classic TC shape and banding evident to the north and west of the cyclone, and a some what buzz saw shape to her this morning. The dry air is being squeezed out and shear is relaxing SLOOOOWWWLY. A couple more coughs and Irene might start behaving like a real TS.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... /WV/20.jpg

However, she still has some midlevel shear from the north and compared to our EPAC friend looks sickly. Still to early to tell if this is just a temporary intensification or a steady state. Hopefully, for Irene, any high cloud tops she forms today might actually stick around.

[Skyline]

BTW,

Where oh where are are great vis. close-up loops for the day?

[x-y-no]

Based on the latest visible imagery, it appears the center may be just to the north and east of where the NHC has it. I don't see anything down at 21N.

The NHC fix looks pretty good to me, but yeah, if anything the center is just slightly northeast of there.

Motion still looks to be west, but it could be just barely north of west.

[ncbird]

Do you think she'll pull an Andrew and fake the models out and head towards S FL or is New Bern North Carolina the target.

NO NO.... that is quite ok.. New Bern NC does not want her.

NCBird

[storms in NC]

I just looked and she seem to be going west of wnw now

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS run, which is still rolling out, loses the surface feature (not uncommon) but keeps a feature in the 850, 700 and 500 mb levels tracking pretty far south - not far NE of the northern Bahamas in 96 hours with very strong mid-level ridging above it.

[Hyperstorm]

I don't see anything down at 21N like Stewart stated in the discussion. The center appears to be near 23N 57W. It is gradually consolidating today and I fully expect tropical storm status by tonight. I also expect hurricane status within the next 48 hours, that is by Friday. This is based on past storms that have had similar setups and looked similar on satellite. Such storms include Hurricane Erin in 2001. It is increasingly likely that Irene will strengthen more than currently forecast.

Irene also appears to be starting the much anticipated turn toward the WNW...

[DESTRUCTION5]

She's getting that BuzSAw look to her now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Meso]

Wow, that was weird, My cookies from that loop don't want to update, will have to go delete manually... Got a bit of a shock when I clicked and saw Emily and Dennis remnants :o

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z GFS run, which is still rolling out, loses the surface feature (not uncommon) but keeps a feature in the 850, 700 and 500 mb levels tracking pretty far south - not far NE of the northern Bahamas in 96 hours with very strong mid-level ridging above it.

Keep us in the loop as it come out

THKU!

[Derecho]

Motion still looks to be west, but it could be just barely north of west.

I fear I'll be starting another famous motion flamewar but it appears to me that right at the moment Irene began to get better organized it gained a noticeable N of due W component of motion; it's not due NW or anything, but it looks to have jumped right on to the model consensus track (which ends up a tad N of the 11AM NHC advisory track.)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS run, which is still rolling out, loses the surface feature (not uncommon) but keeps a feature in the 850, 700 and 500 mb levels tracking pretty far south - not far NE of the northern Bahamas in 96 hours with very strong mid-level ridging above it.

FL

[Derecho]

12Z NOGAPS clips Cape Hatteras and then is heading N..slowly....