Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Aric Dunn]

this is from the nhc discussion

"THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS N
FROM THE PACIFIC AND POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION OF ALMA OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS OR A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE WAKE OF ALMA."

[KWT]

Yep it appears that the remains, which is by now just the voricity is nearly back over water again and probably has 18hrs to get any sorts of organisation. I suspect that any development will come from it when its get into BOC. As the map Wxman57 shows any track should eventually be west/SW, maybe a touch like Bret 05 IF anything does come from it, that is by no means any certainty and we may end up with nothing occuring but an area of convection and unsettled weather.

As for the GoH, yep that may be another area just to keep a close eye, esp over the next 36hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

12z gfs. 12hrs

[Aric Dunn]

24hrs

[xironman]

Aric,

If you embed the lat/lon if the get you can have it zoom in where you want it http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-85.5&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis

[Aric Dunn]

42 hrs

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

If you embed the lat/lon if the get you can have it zoom in where you want it http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-85.5&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis

thankyou

[KWT]

You can clearly see the area of convection on the 12z GFS run near Cuba which eventually becomes part of that little low in the GoH which slowly drifts off to the west towards central America.

[Aric Dunn]

54 hrs

[KWT]

Well looking at the 12z GFS so far it really is touch or go as to whether the low will make it to the BOC at all, I think thats going to be the best hope for any development in the Atlantic basin for this entire week, will have to keep an eye on Alma's remains, it may not reform over the GoH like the GFS appears to suggest but who knows we shall see!

[NDG]

Definitely low pressure center at the surface trying to get better organized near 17.3N & 87.2W by looking at this surface observations:

[wxman57]

Yeah, broad weak low just offshore Belize. No convergence into the center and winds only 5-15 kts so chances of it doing anything before moving inland into the Yucatan are quite remote. May cause some rough conditions in the southern BoC later this weekend and into early next week, though. But anything moving into the BoC will have to track west or southwest into Mexico.

Bones says he's not ready to make any statements at this time.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah rotan island off the coast of honduras has a wsw wind

pressure 1009

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

[Vortex]

Yeah, broad weak low just offshore Belize. No convergence into the center and winds only 5-15 kts so chances of it doing anything before moving inland into the Yucatan are quite remote. May cause some rough conditions in the southern BoC later this weekend and into early next week, though. But anything moving into the BoC will have to track west or southwest into Mexico.

Bones says he's not ready to make any statements at this time.

Wxman,

Was waiting for a Jim, its dead

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, broad weak low just offshore Belize. No convergence into the center and winds only 5-15 kts so chances of it doing anything before moving inland into the Yucatan are quite remote. May cause some rough conditions in the southern BoC later this weekend and into early next week, though. But anything moving into the BoC will have to track west or southwest into Mexico.

Bones says he's not ready to make any statements at this time.

"THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STEADY STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS N
FROM THE PACIFIC AND POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION OF ALMA OVER THE GULF
OF HONDURAS OR A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE WAKE OF ALMA."

[KWT]

Yep it doesn't appear to have time to do anything before moving into central America however the exact track of the voricity and any rotation is going to be key for the chance sof any development in the BOC. if it ends up a little further south then forget it, if it ends up a little further north then progged then it may well have the time and space to develop.

[NDG]

If something is going to try to form or reform better do it quick, because the UL environment is going to be going downhill in 2-3 days in the NW Caribbean & parts of BOC.

[KWT]

Mind you NDG given how far south this area would emerge I'm not sure how much the shear would really effect any system that tries to develop, still you are right abbout the shear increasing further north.

[Aric Dunn]

the center looks to be trying to become a little better organized just a tad farther north and east..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

there is something that is interesting the 12z ukmet brings a fairly large trough down in about 3 days .. if it can move slowly over the southern BOC i guess you never know..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation