TD 10...Back Again

[WeatherEmperor]

Is the twisting under the CDO. I can't tell.

CDO? are u serious?

<RICKY>

[boca]

no just joking WeatherEmperor.

[Stratosphere747]

The long range loop at of San Juan looks harmless as of now.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

I wish the experimental long range loop was working, the short range is just out of reach...

[ronjon]

i do have to say...this is the best ive seen xtd10 in a while, could mean something, maybe not, but it does look better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Since the diurnal convection kicks in at night, it should maintain or increase till tomorrow morning. It also looks to be moving again after a pause today, a drift toward the W-NW. Looks like a large anticyclone has built over the system, hence the favorable conditions. Ain't gonna predict this one - I've already had it Jose about 4 times now.

[Ivanhater]

i do have to say...this is the best ive seen xtd10 in a while, could mean something, maybe not, but it does look better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Since the diurnal convection kicks in at night, it should maintain or increase till tomorrow morning. It also looks to be moving again after a pause today, a drift toward the W-NW. Looks like a large anticyclone has built over the system, hence the favorable conditions. Ain't gonna predict this one - I've already had it Jose about 4 times now.

ya, im done trying to figure it out....but even with all the climaxes its had...this one looks the best

[WeatherEmperor]

Ill check back at it in the morning to see if all that convection has persisted because at night this thing over its history has blown up only to start dying down during the day.

<RICKY>

[superfly]

Since the diurnal convection kicks in at night, it should maintain or increase till tomorrow morning. It also looks to be moving again after a pause today, a drift toward the W-NW. Looks like a large anticyclone has built over the system, hence the favorable conditions. Ain't gonna predict this one - I've already had it Jose about 4 times now.

Non-tropical systems lose convection at night while tropical systems gain convection at night. This is not a tropical system hence it will likely lose convection overnight.

[jkt21787]

Since the diurnal convection kicks in at night, it should maintain or increase till tomorrow morning. It also looks to be moving again after a pause today, a drift toward the W-NW. Looks like a large anticyclone has built over the system, hence the favorable conditions. Ain't gonna predict this one - I've already had it Jose about 4 times now.

Non-tropical systems lose convection at night while tropical systems gain convection at night. This is not a tropical system hence it will likely lose convection overnight.

Where do you get its a non-tropical system? Thats the first I've heard that mentioned. Have I missed an important point?

[WeatherEmperor]

Since the diurnal convection kicks in at night, it should maintain or increase till tomorrow morning. It also looks to be moving again after a pause today, a drift toward the W-NW. Looks like a large anticyclone has built over the system, hence the favorable conditions. Ain't gonna predict this one - I've already had it Jose about 4 times now.

Non-tropical systems lose convection at night while tropical systems gain convection at night. This is not a tropical system hence it will likely lose convection overnight.

Where do you get its a non-tropical system? Thats the first I've heard that mentioned. Have I missed an important point?

You took the words right out of my mouth. What does he think we have been tracking for the past 4-5 days?

<RICKY>

[superfly]

Where do you get its a non-tropical system? Thats the first I've heard that mentioned. Have I missed an important point?

There is no closed surface circulation. It's a wave right now. By tropical system, I meant tropical cyclone if I caused confusion there.

[WeatherEmperor]

Where do you get its a non-tropical system? Thats the first I've heard that mentioned. Have I missed an important point?

There is no closed surface circulation. It's a wave right now. By tropical system, I meant tropical cyclone if I caused confusion there.

that doesnt mean its a non-tropical system. Remember this thing was once Tropical Depression 10. Since then it has been downgraded to a tropical wave(some might say tropical low)

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

Where do you get its a non-tropical system? Thats the first I've heard that mentioned. Have I missed an important point?

There is no closed surface circulation. It's a wave right now. By tropical system, I meant tropical cyclone if I caused confusion there.

it doesnt need a closed low to be tropical, hence "tropical wave"

[Ivanhater]

forget last post, just read you other post

[jkt21787]

Where do you get its a non-tropical system? Thats the first I've heard that mentioned. Have I missed an important point?

There is no closed surface circulation. It's a wave right now. By tropical system, I meant tropical cyclone if I caused confusion there.

OK, just when you said "non-tropical", I thought you were inferring this was a subtropical or extratropical entity. I wasn't buyin that!

[superfly]

From the responses, it appears I am probably wrong, but I've been under the impression that a system had to be a TC to have their convective maxima at night rather than during the day.

[WeatherEmperor]

From the responses, it appears I am probably wrong, but I've been under the impression that a system had to be a TC to have their convective maxima at night rather than during the day.

You are correct. This system has been firing up at night and dying down during the day for the past 4-5 days now, it was never the other way around.

<RICKY>

[artist]

from the 8:00 TWD -

THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

[WindRunner]

But this seems promising, north of PR:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER
PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

[WeatherEmperor]

Whats the difference between TWO(tropical weather outlook) and TWD(tropical weather discussion). Look like the exact same to me.

<RICKY>

[Frank P]

from the 8:00 TWD -

THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

good point.... and that's what some of us have been observing this afternoon with this area N of PR, rotation, building convection, high pressure aloft....... its disturbed weather, its August, it's something to watch... yeah its aggrevating because its been struggling quite a bit and having a really hard time developing but its still there, and we're still watching it.... August has been the month of the "tease"...