Rita Recon Reports

[jhamps10]

Pressure falling, all I can say is YIKES! I hope people in Houston, Galveston, and Beaumont see this and decide to get out. She may become a cat 5 again.

[jpigott]

This is real confusing ... the ERC sure isn't done yet, so how can the pressure be levelling off?

Very strange.

yea, great question. Any of our professional mets want to try to explain the inner core dymanics Rita is going thru right now. It's kind of hard to comphrend what's going on for us amatuers. We appear to have a collapsing inner eyewall 15 mi in diameter, a 50 mi wide outer wall (which will presumably be contracting and form the new inner eyewall) and the pressure rise appears to have stopped and in fact is going back down (albeit only 1mb). I thought the pressure would keep rising until ERWC was complete. Maybe this isn't an ERWC, maybe Rita is setting up shop having a tight 15mi diameter eye

[soonertwister]

From a stabilized 20 nm eye to a 50 mile eye replacement. I definitely see the windfield increasing by more than 20%, quite possibly more than 30%.

There's a lot of wind-up room there. While I've never thought that Rita has looked quite as impressive as Katrina was, things may be about to change.

I also predict a pressure drop to below 895 before we are done.

[jpigott]

From a stabilized 20 nm eye to a 50 mile eye replacement. I definitely see the windfield increasing by more than 20%, quite possibly more than 30%.

There's a lot of wind-up room there. While I've never thought that Rita has looked quite as impressive as Katrina was, things may be about to change.

I also predict a pressure drop to below 895 before we are done.

i'm not sure the 50 mile "eye" is really a replacement just yet b/c there still is a 15mile wide inner eyewall. If the next vortex keeps on showing a collapsing 15 mile wide eye and this really is an ERWC, then watch out b/c skys the limit, with this more Nward track over hot SSTs

[canegrl04]

I'm afraid the levees are going to break again in NO. Still don't know if Dallas area is safe from Rita. Will we get hammered with rain, and TS force winds?

[drezee]

Higher Heat Content in the way

[drezee]

Higher Heat Content in the way

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 221921
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 15 KNHC
1910. 2606N 08836W 03658 5064 143 088 076 064 089 03600 0000000000
1911 2605N 08837W 03656 5073 145 091 080 052 092 03588 0000000000
1911. 2604N 08839W 03658 5082 145 092 080 050 093 03582 0000000000
1912 2603N 08840W 03659 5092 143 095 084 048 096 03572 0000000000
1912. 2602N 08842W 03656 5102 142 096 080 058 097 03560 0000000000
1913 2601N 08843W 03659 5114 143 100 080 058 101 03551 0000000000
1913. 2600N 08845W 03655 5128 144 103 080 050 105 03533 0000000000
1914 2559N 08846W 03659 5142 144 109 088 048 110 03522 0000000000
1914. 2558N 08848W 03658 5162 144 113 088 046 114 03502 0000000000
1915 2557N 08849W 03660 5175 143 112 074 054 114 03490 0000000000
1915. 2556N 08851W 03659 5200 143 112 064 064 113 03465 0000000000
1916 2555N 08852W 03666 5220 144 107 070 070 111 03451 0000000000
1916. 2554N 08854W 03646 5240 149 102 070 070 105 03411 0000000000
1917 2553N 08855W 03659 5258 149 102 100 082 103 03406 0000000000
1917. 2552N 08857W 03661 5281 148 105 104 076 106 03385 0000000000
1918 2551N 08858W 03654 5307 149 109 104 076 109 03352 0000000000
1918. 2551N 08859W 03660 5337 148 111 104 080 112 03328 0000000000
1919 2550N 08901W 03660 5376 148 114 108 078 114 03288 0000000000
1919. 2549N 08903W 03656 5429 150 120 114 080 122 03233 0000000000
1920 2549N 08905W 03660 5489 147 115 116 092 120 03175 0000000000



122kts

[Hurrilurker]

According to that heat content map, there will also be a larger area of low heat content offshore before it makes landfall though. Could be a good thing in the long run. Also not having the Galveston/Houston area in the right side should be a positive. I am getting a bit worried about rain in N.O. though. It looks like it going to get quite a bit now. Also, there was talk of a stall after landfall. Could she stall and wander back towards N.O.?

[cycloneye]

901
URNT12 KNHC 221939
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/19:22:40Z
B. 25 deg 44 min N
089 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 149 deg 122 kt
G. 062 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 914 mb
I. 9 C/ 3658 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. C16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z

[cycloneye]

901
URNT12 KNHC 221939
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/19:22:40Z
B. 25 deg 44 min N
089 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 149 deg 122 kt
G. 062 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 914 mb
I. 9 C/ 3658 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. C16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z




Pressure stayed the same from last vortex.

[x-y-no]

They dropped the mention of the outer eyewall in the new vortex msg ...

Color me even more confused. Can an ERC be interrupted? I've never seen anything like it.

[feederband]

IR starting to look much better now...

[jpigott]

They dropped the mention of the outer eyewall in the new vortex msg ...

Color me even more confused. Can an ERC be interrupted? I've never seen anything like it.

also it looks like inner eyewall has expanded from 15 miles to 16 miles, maybe it didn't go thru an ERC

[tallywx]

Here's my take on all of this. I think the ERC was interrupted by Rita encountering more favorable conditions (as evidenced by her general appearance on satellite and halting of central pressure rise). This allowed the dying inner eyewall to restrengthen such that it remains a dominant feature. The outer eyewall, which had been forming, ceased to continue to form. Instead, transfer of energy between this outer eyewall and the continuing predominant eyewall has caused an expansion of the windfield. So now we have a looser pressure gradient (which is why max winds around the storm are probably 140-145 mph at best right now). What we could see over the next 24 hours is a gradual retightening of this pressure gradient without a classic "inner eyewall collapse" with the outer eyewall taking over.

Instead, we have more "diffusion" of energy in which the entire inner core serves to build up a "new" eyewall. Think "expansion and contraction" instead of "replacement."

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I expect the pressure to start droping with a increase in winds...It is starting to get its shape back.

[cjrciadt]

000
URNT12 KNHC 221948Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1913Z
B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N
89 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2329 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 43 DEG 133 KT
G. 309 DEG 10 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 13 C/ 3059 M
J. 20 C/ 3044 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. C018-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
this looks better higher winds and lower pressure.

[txwatcher91]

000
URNT12 KNHC 221948Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1913Z
B. 25 DEG 44 MIN N
89 DEG 13 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2329 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 43 DEG 133 KT
G. 309 DEG 10 NM
H. 913 MB
I. 13 C/ 3059 M
J. 20 C/ 3044 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. C018-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
this looks better higher winds and lower pressure.

Yeah, now the confusing thing is the now have C018-48 when the vortex before this one said C16

[Brent]

That fix was made BEFORE the other one...



Still, that does look more realistic.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 222021
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 21 KNHC
2010. 2522N 08854W 03658 5088 220 082 088 060 082 03575 0000000000
2011 2524N 08856W 03652 5102 222 087 088 054 090 03556 0000000000
2011. 2525N 08858W 03647 5126 224 094 086 054 095 03526 0000000000
2012 2527N 08859W 03652 5150 223 096 094 052 097 03508 0000000000
2012. 2528N 08900W 03658 5167 222 098 092 070 098 03496 0000000000
2013 2529N 08902W 03663 5187 222 101 074 074 103 03482 0000000000
2013. 2531N 08903W 03660 5210 220 094 074 074 100 03455 0000000000
2014 2532N 08904W 03657 5238 218 087 076 076 092 03424 0000000000
2014. 2533N 08906W 03651 5260 215 087 074 074 090 03396 0000000000
2015 2535N 08907W 03660 5277 218 087 084 084 089 03389 0000000000
2015. 2536N 08908W 03657 5299 220 092 110 080 094 03363 0000000000
2016 2538N 08910W 03658 5326 219 095 118 076 097 03337 0000000000
2016. 2539N 08911W 03660 5360 221 101 118 084 105 03305 0000000000
2017 2540N 08912W 03659 5402 220 105 120 084 105 03262 0000000000
2017. 2542N 08914W 03658 5455 219 109 122 094 111 03208 0000000000
2018 2543N 08915W 03656 5523 221 100 118 112 109 03138 0000000000
2018. 2544N 08916W 03657 5571 220 069 148 106 076 03091 0000000000
2019 2546N 08918W 03656 5600 219 047 162 104 053 03060 0000000000
2019. 2547N 08919W 03658 5616 214 023 162 106 031 03047 0000000000
2020 2548N 08921W 03655 5622 227 010 162 110 014 03037 0000000000


Here comes another vortex.Let's see how will be the pressure and how the eye shows.