2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

The MDR will be primed with a favorable environment and extremely warm ssts come August.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/VWeatherWatcher/status/1280136523069997056



 https://twitter.com/VWeatherWatcher/status/1280184829712228353



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1280136634915344384



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1280138377833189378



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1280189266103021569

[Shell Mound]

As always caution with the exact details of these forecasts (these are 14-21 day forecasts), but the CFS has been progressively getting more aggressive towards the end of July with some type of AEW finding its way into the GOM:

https://i.imgur.com/LngkwMB.png

https://i.imgur.com/KL1Xmjh.png

Do you know why the CFSv2 is showing a fairly strong TUTT over/near the Leeward Islands during ASO?

[USTropics]

As always caution with the exact details of these forecasts (these are 14-21 day forecasts), but the CFS has been progressively getting more aggressive towards the end of July with some type of AEW finding its way into the GOM:

https://i.imgur.com/LngkwMB.png

https://i.imgur.com/KL1Xmjh.png

Do you know why the CFSv2 is showing a fairly strong TUTT over/near the Leeward Islands during ASO?

I'm not seeing a strong TUTT for ASO. If you're basing it off the ASO bulk shear forecast, I'd caution against that. It doesn't really encompass the entire picture (i.e. strong TUTT in October skews the forecast), and is also one of the most difficult parameters to forecast. 200mb zonal wind anomaly would lend more forecast skill, albeit still low. I'm really not seeing anything that says this won't be a very active-hyperactive season in the CFS or CANSIPS forecasts. Here are some comparisons of the latest CFS/CANSIPS forecasts and a reanalysis of hyperactive seasons (using ACE) in the past 30 years (I'll also show a subset of least active seasons in the past 30 years in terms of ACE). These are all for ASO:

200mb Zonal Wind:





SSTA:





500mb heights:





Precipitation

[SFLcane]

Thanks for the informative post UStropics now let’s move past this Tutt idea there is no such thing on the models. I am expecting things to go gangbusters in a few weeks.

[SFLcane]

Well TBH this look ought to be giving us a TC, even in July. So I'm thinking there are definitely some hidden problems. Again, stability and dry air. We'll see if those are overcome at some point.

[Hammy]

Well TBH this look ought to be giving us a TC, even in July. So I'm thinking there are definitely some hidden problems. Again, stability and dry air. We'll see if those are overcome at some point.

https://i.imgur.com/g1bustC.png

Monsoon trough is still too far north for anything to develop in the tropical Atlantic, and we're still in SAL season along with some easterly shear present (which has been shown in the seasonal models for awhile.)

[USTropics]

This is climo July. The number of named systems that have formed to the east of the Caribbean since 1851 in the first 3 weeks of July is 10. If we wanted to compare to even an extreme year (i.e. 2005), it was really the Caribbean that was favorable early that season (in particular the western Caribbean). A reanalysis shows Dennis and Emily struggled in the MDR until they reached the Caribbean:

Dennis formed from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 29 June. A broad low pressure area with two embedded swirls of low clouds formed on 2 July. Convection increased near both low-level centers on 3 July. The western system moved through the southern Windward Islands on 4 July and lost organization over the southeastern Caribbean. The eastern system continued to develop, becoming a tropical depression over the southern Windward Islands near 1800 UTC 4 July (Fig. 1).

Initial development was slow because of modest easterly shear and a relatively dry environment. Although the circulation remained broad and somewhat ill defined, the system became a tropical storm at 0000 UTC 12 July about 800 n mi east of the southern Windward Islands. Emily accelerated westward on 12 July due to a low-level easterly surge. This surge enhanced the dry environment and produced some westerly shear that appeared to prevent further convective organization.

Current


2005 (Dennis on the far left in the Caribbean and the AEW that spawned Emily coming off Africa - dust dominates MDR)

[BYG Jacob]

If something can stick in the ITCZ pocket it can form

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1280254485064015873

[Kingarabian]

[url]http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1280254485064015873?s=21[url]

I'm sure the control is just one solution out of all the EPS members. The EPS mean calls for the Atlantic to be in business by August 1.

[CyclonicFury]

Not all hyperactive seasons have pre-August MDR development east of the Caribbean. 2004 and 2010 are examples of this. 1999 also was a high ACE year, and nothing formed in the MDR before August 19.

[abajan]

http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1280254485064015873?s=21

"... the Atlantic switch should definitely flip by August probably." What contradictory language!

[SFLcane]

Once August rolls around look out!

 https://twitter.com/MPalmerTWC/status/1280289378888298496

[CyclonicFury]

It's pretty telling that last year at this time, the Indicators thread only had 21 pages. This year, we're at 70.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/KyleNoel15/status/1280318212241010695

[storminabox]

It's pretty telling that last year at this time, the Indicators thread only had 21 pages. This year, we're at 70.

WOW!! That's one way to put things into perspective. I think the fact that the entirety of the Pacific Ocean has had very little activity up to this point is as good of an indicator as any that the Atlantic will be heavily favored this year from a tropical standpoint. Imagine if the Atlantic beats out the WPAC this year?!

[gatorcane]

It's pretty telling that last year at this time, the Indicators thread only had 21 pages. This year, we're at 70.

WOW!! That's one way to put things into perspective. I think the fact that the entirety of the Pacific Ocean has had very little activity up to this point is as good of an indicator as any that the Atlantic will be heavily favored this year from a tropical standpoint. Imagine if the Atlantic beats out the WPAC this year?!

Or could it be an indicator tropical cyclone activity may end up below normal world-wide, even the Atlantic?

[CyclonicFury]

It's pretty telling that last year at this time, the Indicators thread only had 21 pages. This year, we're at 70.

WOW!! That's one way to put things into perspective. I think the fact that the entirety of the Pacific Ocean has had very little activity up to this point is as good of an indicator as any that the Atlantic will be heavily favored this year from a tropical standpoint. Imagine if the Atlantic beats out the WPAC this year?!

Or could it be an indicator tropical cyclone activity may end up below normal world-wide, even the Atlantic?

I doubt that, global TC activity was well below normal at this time in 2010 and 2017 as well.

[SFLcane]

Atlantic hurricanes could get driven into the Southeast if things don’t change.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 99168?s=21