We'll get to see what the models think from 7.5 days (ICON) through 16 (GFS) and what they end up saying. I'll probably stay up for a while, but as usual, I'll let someone else post about the ECMWF. What we know coming into tonight is that we're starting from just inside the circle at Phase 7 (some models had us crossing the top of the circle to get back to 8-1 from early last week). But we knew we'd be in 8 by Sunday or Monday. What's a little
off to me is that almost none of the MJO aspects of the globals do much more than just get tied up close to enhanced phases. I'm not sure why. The CMC does sort of bleed toward Phases 2 and 3 (
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cmet.shtml ). The rest either get tied up, rotate or sort of just stay like they are or end up doubling back. Even on Dr. Ventrice's site, the MJO does now move into the W ATL basin in week 2. But it's losing punch. That's not irregular for MJO as it moves eastward, but just based on its strength, you don't expect to see it that much less enhanced in week 2. We were discussing early this week that the GFS should begin to trend toward weaker EPAC systems overall than it had been advertising as well as adjust the MJO toward the western Atlantic from where it was concentrating that. It still isn't right - I don't think. But with it and all the other models getting tangled up (mostly except the CMC and JMA), I guess they will have telegraphed it if activity toward the end of next week and the week after isn't up yet. I'll repeat that I don't personally agree. But again, we can continue to see if the models are sometimes flipped on their heads this year. Who would ever take a bet that you'd want to maybe see what the ICON and CMC say and give that similar weight as to what you might ordinarily afford the GFS or ECMWF. IDK. We'll see. ICON shoudl be mostly in by now, so I'll go run it and see if I feel it's got anything of note.
