2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Iceresistance]

Idalia looks to be a factor on the future outcome of these TWs from Africa.

That 960mb run from the Euro is very unusual and concerning.

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.postimg.cc/GhPT5zrt/jjjjjnnn.gif

Looks like peak hurricane season...when do the fish posts start on this one?

EPS looks fishy.

Certified S2k moment

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This storm's track looks like it'll be heavily dependent on whatever future Idalia has. If Idalia's still hanging around by Bermuda, the window for recurvature is greater.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/GhPT5zrt/jjjjjnnn.gif

Looks like peak hurricane season...when do the fish posts start on this one?

EPS looks fishy.

Certified S2k moment

I had too

[Ianswfl]

Idalia looks to be a factor on the future outcome of these TWs from Africa.

That 960mb run from the Euro is very unusual and concerning.

So either we want idalia possibly coming back this way, or the new, more powerful system.

[Cpv17]

Idalia looks to be a factor on the future outcome of these TWs from Africa.

That 960mb run from the Euro is very unusual and concerning.

So either we want idalia possibly coming back this way, or the new, more powerful system.

We need something in Texas. Florida has had enough rain. Currently in a D3 extreme drought here.

[IcyTundra]

Idalia looks to be a factor on the future outcome of these TWs from Africa.

That 960mb run from the Euro is very unusual and concerning.

So either we want idalia possibly coming back this way, or the new, more powerful system.

Idk why you want another storm to come to SWFL after what Ian did last year.

[mantis83]

EPS looks fishy.

yup, that weakness isn't going anywhere, looks up and out for now....

[IcyTundra]

Maybe we should wait until something actually develops until we declare a “fish” storm. Lesser Antilles and PR might be threatened by this wave.

[zzzh]

It is there.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree nothing has formed some are already say fish!

[Stratton23]

Declaring a fish storm before something has even developed yet is extremely ignorant, lets wait and see if something develops first

[Category5Kaiju]

Declaring a fish storm before something has even developed yet is extremely ignorant, lets wait and see if something develops first

Ever since Irma and Florence, I typically refrain myself from declaring "fish" until the storm actually forms and we get a better idea on steering patterns.

One thing we do know; considering Idalia is expected to take this weird SE dive after exiting the Eastern Seaboard, the ridging (at least in the near future) may not be that wimpy.

[Blown Away]

Declaring a fish storm before something has even developed yet is extremely ignorant, lets wait and see if something develops first

Models continue showing TW’s coming off Africa pretty high @15 degrees and many of those will recurve OTS with Bermuda being a potential target.

[IcyTundra]

Declaring a fish storm before something has even developed yet is extremely ignorant, lets wait and see if something develops first

Models continue showing TW’s coming off Africa pretty high @15 degrees and many of those will recurve OTS with Bermuda being a potential target.

The TW coming off of Africa on Saturday will be a pretty low latitude might have a decent chance of making it to the islands.

[Teban54]

0z GFS now on board

[IcyTundra]

0z GFS now on board
https://i.postimg.cc/N0gzqz8F/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh96-384.gif

I think that might be the 2nd wave that the 12Z Euro has developing. Looks like the GFS doesn’t do anything with the 1st wave but I could be wrong.

[mantis83]

whatever forms looks to recurve safely out to sea.....

[Ianswfl]

Eure ensembles members some have shifted pretty far south compared to 12z. A lot of strong members too.

[Iceresistance]

0z EPS less clustered compared to 12z, but further west.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCVC.gif