TD 10...Back Again

[WeatherEmperor]

from the 8:00 TWD -

THE REMNANTS OF TD 10 ARE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH NEAR TURKS/CAICOS ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT ARE
WEAKENING WITH TIME. A MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE
THE LOW/MID-LEVEL ROTATION N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR A TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS DISTURBED AREA OF WEATHER HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE
OVER IT WITH SCATTERED TSTMS. A FEW OF THE COMPUTER MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOPMENT THIS AREA.. BRINGING IT TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION HAS TO BE CONSIDERED HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

good point.... and that's what some of us have been observing this afternoon with this area N of PR, rotation, building convection, high pressure aloft....... its disturbed weather, its August, it's something to watch... yeah its aggrevating because its been struggling quite a bit and having a really hard time developing but its still there, and we're still watching it.... August has been the month of the "tease"...

Yeah you are right. Your argument is very reasonable.

<RICKY>

[southerngale]

TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.

Look at the outflow!!

It is not strengthening rapidly and there isn't any outflow. You're trolling and disrupting this thread. Check your email shortly.

[jkt21787]

TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.

Look at the outflow!!

It is not strengthening rapidly and there isn't any outflow. You're trolling and disrupting this thread. Check your email shortly.

THANK YOU!!!

I know I can always count on you guys!

[Frank P]

There's NOTHING there but rain--give it up!!! Why are ppl still fixated on former TD 10, when the NHC has completely written it off? Things like that destroy credibility in meteorology. The wave coming off Cape Verde looks far more worthy of watching--that looks like a real possibility.

THANKS

The TWD is actually confirming what some of us have been observing all afternoon... we were actually posting the information and data observations real time before the NHC delineated it in their discussions, but I'm sure they were just as aware of what is going on as us, perhaps even more... now the NHC is basically saying the same thing that we were saying... bottom line, lets watch and see what happens... I guess I'm still a little miffed at the quote from above....

[WeatherEmperor]

There's NOTHING there but rain--give it up!!! Why are ppl still fixated on former TD 10, when the NHC has completely written it off? Things like that destroy credibility in meteorology. The wave coming off Cape Verde looks far more worthy of watching--that looks like a real possibility.

THANKS

The TWD is actually confirming what some of us have been observing all afternoon... we were actually posting the information and data observations real time before the NHC delineated it in their discussions, but I'm sure they were just as aware of what is going on as us, perhaps even more... now the NHC is basically saying the same thing that we were saying... bottom line, lets watch and see what happens... I guess I'm still a little miffed at the quote from above....

I guess we should just wait until the morning hours and see if the convection is still there or will die off yet again like it always does during the day.

<RICKY>

[Frank P]

Yeah Ricky, nothing would surprise me about this system, early this morning NHC said conditions were unfavorable, then changed their tune somewhat this evening... who know what tomorrow will bring.. I certainly don't even want to speculation... don't you hate prematurely speculating on TCs... and end up looking for some crow to eat... I know I do ... hehe...... heck it could be long gone before morning.... all I know to do is watch it to see what happens... but IMO it is something legimate to watch from a TC perspective...

[jabber]

Just to fuel the fire from the 8:05 discussion:



CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER
PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO
THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

[WeatherEmperor]

Just to fuel the fire from the 8:05 discussion:



CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IS NEAR AND
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 63W-68W. HOWEVER
PUERTO RICO RADAR IS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NEAR 20.5N67W
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AT LOWER-LEVELS CYCLONICALLY TURNING INTO
THE CENTER. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST.

thats what makes us come back for more in the tropics

<RICKY>

[MWatkins]

CSU Alum Eric Blake wrote the 805TWD...and always...he does a tremendous job going into details that most of the other TAFB forecasters tend to overlook (of course...except Mr Rhome).

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... XNT20.KNHC

It looks like this general area of disturbed weather hasn't moved much since last night. If some new thunderstorm activity starts to fire up where the MLC appears to be then we may be on to something...upper winds have improved significantly in the last 36 hours...

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

CSU Alum Eric Blake wrote the 805TWD...and always...he does a tremendous job going into details that most of the other TAFB forecasters tend to overlook (of course...except Mr Rhome).

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... XNT20.KNHC

It looks like this general area of disturbed weather hasn't moved much since last night. If some new thunderstorm activity starts to fire up where the MLC appears to be then we may be on to something...upper winds have improved significantly in the last 36 hours...

MW

whats your take on potential redevelopment of this system Mike?

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

very tenacious waves weve had in this unfavorable phase...makes you think what they will be like when it becomes favorable again

[ConvergenceZone]

Ely.... you posed the following.... ""TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.""

sometimes its hard to take you serious or even give you the benefit of the doubt with statements such as this... perhaps that is your goal.... I'm not bashing you just trying to understand your thought process and opinion, of which you are certainly entitled to.... sometimes it just doesn't make much sense to me.... then again, maybe its just me....

elysium has been wrong sooo many times I can't even count them anymore. Just best to ignore the posts and whatever you do, don't take ANYTHING he says seriously. If he says one thing, it will more than likely do the opposite. I'm hoping people realize when you miss BADLY as he does on so many storms, people will just stop reading his posts altogether.

[Air Force Met]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.

I thought you had promised no more forecasts? Please quit trolling...nobody is this bad at prediction...so the only reason to post this stuff is if you are trolling...especially after you said you would stop. Go back to some of the boards that tolerate this kind of stuff if you can't be sensible. Have I asked how old you are yet? You are giving teenagers a bad name...even if you aren't one.

[jkt21787]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.

I thought you had promised no more forecasts? Please quit trolling...nobody is this bad at prediction...so the only reason to post this stuff is if you are trolling...especially after you said you would stop. Go back to some of the boards that tolerate this kind of stuff if you can't be sensible. Have I asked how old you are yet? You are giving teenagers a bad name...even if you aren't one.

SouthernGale's post above is a good sign to me that we may not be dealing with him much longer, if ever again.

[Sanibel]

The only valid observation I can attach to this thing is persistence...

[jabber]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be treated as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may NOT be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional organization, including storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD 10 is in full fledged regeneration and strengthening rapidly. This will unquestionably be upgraded to a tropical storm very soon; possibly in the 11 pm advisory. TD 10 will very likely become a hurricane within the next 24 hrs.

I thought you had promised no more forecasts? Please quit trolling...nobody is this bad at prediction...so the only reason to post this stuff is if you are trolling...especially after you said you would stop. Go back to some of the boards that tolerate this kind of stuff if you can't be sensible. Have I asked how old you are yet? You are giving teenagers a bad name...even if you aren't one.

SouthernGale's post above is a good sign to me that we may not be dealing with him much longer, if ever again.

Yeah..I see a big Time Out coming...

[jabber]

The only valid observation I can attach to this thing is persistence...

I will add one, it favors the night.

[Rainband]

Good Job kelly!!

[george_r_1961]

Since the diurnal convection kicks in at night, it should maintain or increase till tomorrow morning. It also looks to be moving again after a pause today, a drift toward the W-NW. Looks like a large anticyclone has built over the system, hence the favorable conditions. Ain't gonna predict this one - I've already had it Jose about 4 times now.

Non-tropical systems lose convection at night while tropical systems gain convection at night. This is not a tropical system hence it will likely lose convection overnight.

Huh? The reason why convection increases at nite over tropical waters is because while the air cools after sunset the water doesnt. This causes a steeper lapse rate leading to increased convection. Doesnt matter if its a tropical or "non tropical" system. By the way what gives you the idea this is non tropical?

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it just me or does it look like that trough that was supposed to come down to the east coast not appear to be moving all that much?

EDIT: Never mind. I can see the trough now.

<RICKY>