Rita Recon Reports

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cycloneye
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#1381 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:37 pm

URNT12 KNHC 222032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z



Umm Closed eyewall again.And pressure has not gone up in a few hours.
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#1382 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:37 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 222032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z
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#1383 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:38 pm

URNT12 KNHC 222032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z



Umm Closed eyewall again.And pressure has not gone up in a few hours.
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#1384 Postby ALhurricane » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:43 pm

I am honestly confused between the NOAA3 and Air Force vortex messages. Either it has conecentric eyewalls or it doesn't. That needs to be cleared up.

What I do take away from it is that the pressure has not only leveled off but gone back down a few ticks. This combined with the impressive satellite imagery leads me to believe that Rita will make it back to a Cat 5.
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#1385 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:45 pm

Why is the pressure extrapolated? If they're in the eye, why can't they take a direct reading?
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#1386 Postby x-y-no » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:08 pm

ALhurricane wrote:I am honestly confused between the NOAA3 and Air Force vortex messages. Either it has conecentric eyewalls or it doesn't. That needs to be cleared up.

What I do take away from it is that the pressure has not only leveled off but gone back down a few ticks. This combined with the impressive satellite imagery leads me to believe that Rita will make it back to a Cat 5.


I'm glad I'm not the only one who's confused. :D

The NOAA message that had 18/48 concentric and the AF message that had a single 16nm eye were only 7 minutes apart. Certainly not enough time for a major structural change.
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#1387 Postby Solaris » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:11 pm

601
URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
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#1388 Postby Windy » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:11 pm

Hurrilurker wrote:Why is the pressure extrapolated? If they're in the eye, why can't they take a direct reading?


The probe they dropped probably didn't land exactly inside the eye, and so they had to extrapolate.
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#1389 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:14 pm

Still falling 911 now :eek:
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#1390 Postby Windy » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:15 pm

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot -- NOAA finds an outer eyewall again, and the pressure DROPS 3mb? Is thing about to bomb or something?
Last edited by Windy on Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#1391 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:15 pm

wow..911.....looks like another burst of strengthening.....and a warm eddy coming up.....

its time to really hope the shear materializes....imo.
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#1392 Postby LTHLBLU » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:15 pm

something just seems weird...
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#1393 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:17 pm

CRAP
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#1394 Postby Greg D » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:20 pm

I really wish the weakening had happened 24 hours later. :(
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#1395 Postby djtil » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:21 pm

luckily...in theory....there is still time for another peak and weakening before landfall.
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#1396 Postby mvtrucking » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:28 pm

Is it even possible for Rita to get back to a Cat 5 status once it has come down to a 4?
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#1397 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:29 pm

mvtrucking wrote:Is it even possible for Rita to get back to a Cat 5 status once it has come down to a 4?


Possible? Yes. It may happen tonigh if the pressure continues to go down.
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#1398 Postby Dave C » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:29 pm

I wonder if Derek and John Can. are on these flights out there now, what an awesome sight it must be in a record breaking storms eye.
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#1399 Postby Tertius » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:30 pm

mvtrucking wrote:Is it even possible for Rita to get back to a Cat 5 status once it has come down to a 4?


Of course. Just as it originally went from a Cat 4 to a 5, so it can again. Given the dropping pressure I'd say it's about 60/40 in favor of doing so.
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#1400 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:30 pm

Ivan became a Cat 5 THREE times.
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