Large Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

[jhamps10]

The water is a little warmer down around 10N and this is getting to be the end of July.
What are the odds it will become 98L?

I will say 100% it will become an invest. will it become a depression or a storm.... I won't go 100% on that of course, but it sure looks a whole lot better than 97L

[cycloneye]

Not yet:

612
ABNT20 KNHC 242359
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY...CENTERED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF EAGLE
PASS TEXAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON DOLLY CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT4 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT.



$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[gatorcane]

Not yet:

612
ABNT20 KNHC 242359
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY...CENTERED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF EAGLE
PASS TEXAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FUTURE INFORMATION ON DOLLY CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT4 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT.



$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

No not yet but give it 12 more hours -- if I wake up tomorrow morning and it still has a nice convection envelope as it does now, for sure it will become an invest sometime tomorrow. I think the NHC is counting on it fizzling overnight so have decided to not pull the trigger...not to mention its headed for open waters and not a landmass anytime soon.

[Weatherfreak14]

If it holds, Im sure we will have an invest by tommorrow... I think it will maintain convection but wouldn't be suprised if it did decrease.

[bob rulz]

I mean, I understand that they don't want to jump the gun as much as they did with 97L when it was over Africa, but they've gone from being "too trigger-happy" to "too cautious". They've mentioned tiny swirls of cirrus clouds in the middle of the Atlantic in the TWO before, and yet this isn't mentioned at all?

[gatorcane]

I mean, I understand that they don't want to jump the gun as much as they did with 97L when it was over Africa, but they've gone from being "too trigger-happy" to "too cautious". They've mentioned tiny swirls of cirrus clouds in the middle of the Atlantic in the TWO before, and yet this isn't mentioned at all?

Latest shot shows convection is on the decrease some but alot of moisture surrounds the wave:


Looks like it is just south of the SAL:


But is there enough convergence? It may be nothing but a swirl by tomorrow AM.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N19W 10N27W 10N33W 9N39W
6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W
AFRICAN COAST FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 13W-17W AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING OFF THE COAST. FURTHERMORE
THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM HAS DEPICTED THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THESE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

$$
HUFFMAN


Surface analysis has the low well to the north of the possible wave. Its not a threat to develop in the next 24 hours and very unlikely in the next 72. Just give it some time. It has a long trip in front of it to develop.

[Jason_B]

The road ahead looks a little more unfavorable for this one than what Dolly(94L) had to deal with.

[blp]

Seems to be leaving that favorable area of convergence it had 12hrs ago.

12hrs ago
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... onv-4.html

Current
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 7conv.html

[cycloneye]

We may be for a lull until mid August as the unfavorable MJO kicks into the Atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree that this wave that just exited may be the last potential storm for awhile anyway...It should develop, but then it will probably be quite for a couple of weeks after that...

[Sanibel]

Major SAL dropping on top of this one.

[Wx_Warrior]

No models develop anything until 2nd week of Aug or so...

[RL3AO]

Poof. Wasn't even mentioned in the ITCZ part of the TWD.

[Meso]

Poof may be the wrong word.While the size has decreased there is still a decent blob of convection which can be seen on this 08z large image

As well as here on this new large infrared image http://www.weatherphotos.co.za/internat ... hotos.html

Though the models dont really do anything with it, still looks better than I thought it would

[cycloneye]

Here is another MJO graphic that shows Atlantic not favorable until the second week of August.The blue color is the favorable MJO.

[Gustywind]

Hummm? convection has decreased a bit on this, whereas the little bob is always there ...But note that it's the second wave in less than 5 days experiencing the SAL , so SAL is maybe stronger and very persistent than predicted. Honestly tkanks for the SAL, we might see see much more features ( TD or more...) if the SAL would not be so present...

[Gustywind]

Here is another MJO graphic that shows Atlantic not favorable until the second week of August.The blue color is the favorable MJO.

Nice graphic Cycloneye, maybe a little break and breath before the peak of the season ???, because for a beginning no time out was called, let's see if this verfies ( MJO); whereas we should not let our guard down in the Carib and ours US friends too:flag:. See you on the board, .

[littlevince]

Is really there that strong relation between MJO and tropical cyclogenesis ? What is the mechanism ? Convection inhibition or stronger shear ? Does anybody know any site with correlation data in past seasons ?

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye has put a nice thread on that
Littlevince go to viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101575&hilit=