Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[Category 5]

I don't see any invest or tropical depression or tropical storm or hurricane yet so I think some of you'll are getting excited over nothing yet.

When you have this much model support so early then it's something to really watch. However I think people need to calm down. It's almost 2 weeks away from the U.S.

[cycloneye]

I know I will have looong days ahead but I will stay up until the 2 AM TWO is released to see if NHC starts to mention it.

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_288l.gif

Second system runs over me literaly.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_324l.gif

Hey Gomers,you are also on bulls eye.

Well, I guess what we can hope for is that IF these all do develop that they will be close enough to each other and steal one another's energy and keep each other from getting too strong. I know we've seen that in the past, especially when it comes to outflow disruptions with storms in close proximity.

[Duddy]

Oh my God!

Jesus Christ, with this much model support I fear August/September will be hardcore.

[ConvergenceZone]

I sure hope this is fantasyland!!! I am not liking this.

Well, I'm sure there will be many changes with the models in the upcoming days. There could be some flip flopping, but I agree that at least at the moment it's a bit scary....

[vbhoutex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_360l.gif

Makes landfall in the same area where Edouard did.

Interesting that it looks like(I didn't look at all of the run) it keeps this one as a TS all the way to landfall. Normally, unless there are some strong inhibiting factors, which I didn't notice, long trackers like that will be stronger. Definitely going to be watching this one as it makes its' journey, but not getting too worried yet.

[Derek Ortt]

its "weak" due to the low model resolution at that time frame.

999mb at that time period is a de facto hurricane.

[blp]

Here come the twins....

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see any invest or tropical depression or tropical storm or hurricane yet so I think some of you'll are getting excited over nothing yet.

I think everyone is being realistic, it's just that since there isn't really anything active to talk about tropic wise, that we are all just hooked on the waves and what the models are forecasting, that's all.......We know that conditions can change to more or less favorable down the road, but it's not often that we see this.

[cycloneye]

Here come the twins....

Image doesnt work.

[blp]

Here come the twins....

Image doesnt work.

Sorry fixed that...

[Wx_Warrior]

Sure glad it's fantasy land...GFS 0z - 348

[cycloneye]

Oh Canada! Canadian 00z run.

[ConvergenceZone]

Sure glad it's fantasy land...GFS 0z - 348

You mean we're just HOPING it's fantasy land...

[jhamps10]

its "weak" due to the low model resolution at that time frame.

999mb at that time period is a de facto hurricane.

yep, and one must remember that the models showed other storms as open waves when in fact they were very strong major hurricanes.

and seeing the 0z, sure it's in fanatsyland but it's really got to get people a wee bit concerned. I know it does me just seeing that, and looking at the current state of affairs with not 1 but two possible waves to form this, going to be a long few days that's for sure.

[cycloneye]

And here is the conservative UKMET also in the bandwagon at its 00z run:

Code: Select all

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.1N  20.2W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.08.2008  12.1N  20.2W     WEAK

 12UTC 11.08.2008  12.3N  23.1W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.08.2008  13.5N  23.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.08.2008  14.6N  27.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.08.2008  14.6N  29.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 13.08.2008  14.8N  31.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 14.08.2008  14.9N  32.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.08.2008  15.3N  33.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 15.08.2008  15.7N  35.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

[Ivanhater]

well I believe I read JB was saying something about a "track race", so looking like Africa will be spitting them out perhaps like 95 but without an eastcoast trough this go round

[vbhoutex]

its "weak" due to the low model resolution at that time frame.

999mb at that time period is a de facto hurricane.

Gee thanks for the uplift Derek!!!LOL!!! As we all know many things can change in this time frame, but there sure seems to be quite a bit of model support for a long tracker.

[blp]

I know I will have looong days ahead but I will stay up until the 2 AM TWO is released to see if NHC starts to mention it.

Cycloneye, if this run verifies you would get a double whammy.

First strike...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif

Second strike...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif

I guess it is only one run so no need to worry just yet, but I bet you will up for the 06Z run.

[cycloneye]

NHC didnt mention it,but I suspect sometime on Saturday they will.


ABNT20 KNHC 090532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/