Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

[lonelymike]

[quote="lonelymike"]The ratings...er Weather channel is already pushing this as the first major depression of 2009. If it even hints of bleeding it leads [/quote

And Stephanie Abrahms will be bringing us live updates tomorrow nite from a dinghy in the middle of the Atlantic charting those 20mph gusts:)

FYI just having some fun at the expense of NBC Universal don't mean anything by it before someone gets offended.

[lester]

The ratings...er Weather channel is already pushing this as the first major depression of 2009. If it even hints of bleeding it leads [/quote

And Stephanie Abrahms will be bringing us live updates tomorrow nite from a dinghy in the middle of the Atlantic charting those 20mph gusts:)

FYI just having some fun at the expense of NBC Universal don't mean anything by it before someone gets offended.

lol it was pretty funny to me

[HURAKAN]

910
ABNT20 KNHC 142340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[lester]

910
ABNT20 KNHC 142340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

guess we're going to have to wait and see if the wave hangs tough during the next day or two..

[floridasun78]

it like nhc want to see it like this by getting to 50 west or 55 west their want to see if shear or dry air donot kill all those storm by wed morning

[cycloneye]

It has some low level convergence to work with.

[Derek Ortt]

we also do not expect development of anything in the E Atl through the next several days

[BigA]

I guarantee that if this system was identical, but was located 100 miles off the Florida coast the tropical outlook would not say "tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday." I can't really blame the Hurricane Center for this, as they have far better access to information closer to the United States.

That said, its a purely academic matter unless it actually has the potential to become a strong system or threaten land

[gatorcane]

Huge blob of convection is about ready to exit Africa...If anything these huge blobs are going to put a dent in that SAL out in the MDR, possibly allowing for a low SAL environment down the road.

Also if you put this loop in motion, you will see some good cyclonic turning already west of this big blob over Africa..yet another wave about ready to emerge...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-avn.html

I see 4 areas of interest in that one image. Pretty decent for July. But only about a 5-10% chance of any of them developing though. In fact I don't think any of them will be the first named storm. If it were about 1 month later, things could be different.

[Tropics Guy]

Even though the East Atlantic wave looks like it may be organizing at the moment, they (NHC) will probably wait til tomorrow until mentioning it in the TWO, IF it is still intact.
TG

[wxman57]

I guarantee that if this system was identical, but was located 100 miles off the Florida coast the tropical outlook would not say "tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday." I can't really blame the Hurricane Center for this, as they have far better access to information closer to the United States.

That said, its a purely academic matter unless it actually has the potential to become a strong system or threaten land

The difference is that systems typically move off the coast of Africa and weaken within the first 24-48 hours in July, whereas that's not necessarily the case near Florida. And a system near land has the potential to be a threat very quickly. So a system that looks like this near Florida would warrant much greater attention.

Oh, and the convection is decreasing quite rapidly now. I still think it'll be another few weeks before Ana forms. I keep thinking August 8th for some reason...

[dixiebreeze]

A little spin going on? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Still has a good blob.

[GeneratorPower]

cycloneye, where did you get that infrared loop with the 30 minute updates on the east Atlantic? Can you post the link to the site?

[cycloneye]

cycloneye, where did you get that infrared loop with the 30 minute updates on the east Atlantic? Can you post the link to the site?

Tropical Ramsdis site.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[OuterBanker]

Wow, how pretty. All to no avail for awhile I'm afraid. Don't think it has a chance with all the dry air and easterlies ahead. Look at anything from 0 to 15 N nada. Unless this gets above 20N I don't think it has a chance. But for now it looks good.

[GeneratorPower]

cycloneye, where did you get that infrared loop with the 30 minute updates on the east Atlantic? Can you post the link to the site?

Tropical Ramsdis site.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

Thanks, cycloneye. However, it looks like the useful products are all password protected. Which link are you using?

[cycloneye]

The loops are restricted so you have to aquire them through the image URL which is in a sequence, then download them and then animate them.

[GeneratorPower]

The loops are restricted so you have to aquire them through the image URL which is in a sequence, then download them and then animate them.

That is epic awesome, cycloneye. Excellent. And thank you!

[floridasun78]

The loops are restricted so you have to aquire them through the image URL which is in a sequence, then download them and then animate them.

how you do that????