EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[Texas Snowman]

Uh....we're STILL talking about 144-196 hours out? hmmm.

I'm not biting.

I'm not biting yet either...but my curiosity is definitely piqued.

[Texas Snowman]

Yep thats a sure sign that this may not be a real signal, that being said I wouldn't be surprised to see something develop in that area eventually, esp given the way the models have been trying to develop something down there for a while.

That's what I'm saying...

[jinftl]

The TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential...essentially a measure of how much heat energy is available in the ocean...reads more like we are in summer already and not just mid-May.

Compared to this time last year, the tchp is much higher in the western carribean....if this continues to stay high all season....and this area typically has the highest tchp of the entire basin...it would not be surprising to once again learn why this area is the typical breeding ground of Cat 5's (Gilbert, Mitch, Wilma to name a few).

TCHP 5/21/10:




TCHP 5/21/09:

[somethingfunny]

Yeah I think we can definitely book the Western Caribbean for at least one major hurricane this season...but I don't believe anything will organize within the next week or two. I'm not a professional so I could be wrong.

[Texas Snowman]

The TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential...essentially a measure of how much heat energy is available in the ocean...reads more like we are in summer already and not just mid-May.

Compared to this time last year, the tchp is much higher in the western carribean....if this continues to stay high all season....and this area typically has the highest tchp of the entire basin...it would not be surprising to once again learn why this area is the typical breeding ground of Cat 5's (Gilbert, Mitch, Wilma to name a few).

TCHP 5/21/10:

WHOA!!!

I surely don't like that hot patch extending south away from Jamaica. That is a prime area for TC travel, especially later in the season. That tongue of warm/hot water would probably super-size any strong TC traveling through there.

[Texas Snowman]

...it would not be surprising to once again learn why this area is the typical breeding ground of Cat 5's (Gilbert, Mitch, Wilma to name a few).

Don't forget Ivan...he came right through that area too.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows nothing more than a surface low with some scattered convection around it forming in the SW Caribbean within the next few days (likely coming from the area of convection starting to blow-up now). However -- it amounts to nothing more than just a low that gets dragged NNE to NE towards the weakness that the 90L system will open up. That's in line with my forecast from last week. Checked out the shear as progged by the GFS....looks quite hostile all across the Caribbean except in a few days where in the extreme SW Caribbean, an upper-high begins to build.

Looks to me like 90L is also on life-support and if this SW Caribbean low forms, is also going to be on life support. BTW - 90L is helping to create alot of subsidence across FL. Forecast of 20% POPS from my thinking last week looks to verify as Florida indeed looks like it will stay on the dry side of the low. This is just typical May stuff folks....

[HURAKAN]

GFS is back!

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the wheels have been put into motion

[CourierPR]

Are any other models jumping on board?

[HURAKAN]

Are any other models jumping on board?

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters:

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

[HURAKAN]

Video Link - http://www.accuweather.com/video/245282 ... -coast.asp

Joe Bastardi talks about 90L and a possible disturbance in the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

12z CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

12z NAM



12z GFS

[cycloneye]

From the latest model guidance at 12z,it looks like this if it develops will be a crossover from the EPAC.The exception is the EURO that doesn't have the crossover.

[KWT]

Very interesting to see the models are starting to jump onboard for possible development in the EPAC, some decent convection there so its quite possible that we do see something develop out there, esp given the time of year.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF

Has a small cyclone in the EPAC.

Loop

[cycloneye]

Broad Low Pressure forming?

[xcool22]

yeah ...




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