Wave in Central Caribbean

[bvigal]

"17N49W 11N53W 4N55W" at 8am TWD

49W or 55W? For waves tilted, you do need latitude. Renaming threads can cause some confusion, sometimes have to open a couple to figure out which one I was reading last. Over the course of a few days, what seems simplest to me is to stick as close to TWD designation as possible, with time stamp, regardless of how many times it's renamed, i.e.

"Wave 19N27W 0727-06z" becomes "Wave 17N49W 0729-12z"

That way, if things get busy and the mods can't keep the renaming updated, title still identifies which wave.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity increasing

[rockyman]

Is that an upper anticyclone sitting right over Trinidad?

[HURAKAN]

Looks like that

[Air Force Met]

A least NHC should mention this wave as they have done with past ones to warn for heavy rains and gusty winds for the areas affected but no mention on the 8 AM TWO.

I agree. I've seen them mention a lot less. Also surprised they didn't mention the wave near 30 W. Does someone need to call and wake them up?

[HURAKAN]

A least NHC should mention this wave as they have done with past ones to warn for heavy rains and gusty winds for the areas affected but no mention on the 8 AM TWO.

I agree. I've seen them mention a lot less. Also surprised they didn't mention the wave near 30 W. Does someone need to call and wake them up?

It's not over land yet!!! jk lol

[expat2carib]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

Approaching land.

[TheBurn]

[knotimpaired]

Many on the island are still having DMAX and telephone issues so I will make this brief because I am now on a aircard.

Hopefully Luis will pick this up and post it on the Carib site.

FEMA gauges their response funding on the total rainfall as when then un-named Bonnie was when she dumped all of the rain on Vieques. (we are a municipality under consideration of a State of Disaster area) Mind you I am speaking below about a rain event, not wind.

Unfortunately we have the only weather station on the island that is up and running. Camp Garcia's was washed out during Jeanne.

Truth be told, since we own a private weather station we are not recognized as official therefore CNN, Weather Channel, ABC, etc. is reporting we have had only 8+ inches when in reality we have had 14.73" at our house.

This is a Weatherhawk system that small airports, universities and major entities use to track weather. What I am trying to say this is not a system you go to Walmart to buy.

Hence, we will get screwed since we are not official and our island municipality has no interest in providing accurate data.

Go figure.

PS Helicopters are flying over the island..That usually means a major drug bust

[hurricaneCW]

This one should be mentioned in the TWO, but it's not looking too good structurally. The linear convection suggest a good amount of shear with this wave. I'd say the current shear is around 20 knots and it only gets stronger further west into the zone of death. I think the only wave that has a chance in the next 7 days is the one that just emerged off of Africa. The SAL is just far away from it and the shear is just favorable enough to allow for some development. Plus, it's got model support. This one probably won't develop until maybe it reaches the Western Caribbean.

[Frank2]

Not sure if it's as much of a wave as it is that monsoon-type trough that sets up sometimes northeast of Brazil - similar to the thunderstorm complex that seemed to cause the Air France accident a year or two ago...

[bvigal]

A least NHC should mention this wave as they have done with past ones to warn for heavy rains and gusty winds for the areas affected but no mention on the 8 AM TWO.

I agree. I've seen them mention a lot less. Also surprised they didn't mention the wave near 30 W. Does someone need to call and wake them up?

Yes, I agree also. This season the surface maps raised questions for me more frequently than usual, and I found myself daily checking the author to try and gain some additional understanding of the thought process on displaying certain features. (Each analyst has their own style.) What I found was, surface maps and many of the discussions are being done daily (except during actual storms) by interns Walton and Garcia, and have also found initials of two of the student helpers. During development, have also noted the "/" with senior analyst's initial as assisting the intern. No doubt these young people are very bright and talented, and this task is rapidly adding to their experience. We just may not always see what we are accustomed to reading.

[cycloneye]

Many on the island are still having DMAX and telephone issues so I will make this brief because I am now on a aircard.

Hopefully Luis will pick this up and post it on the Carib site.

FEMA gauges their response funding on the total rainfall as when then un-named Bonnie was when she dumped all of the rain on Vieques. (we are a municipality under consideration of a State of Disaster area) Mind you I am speaking below about a rain event, not wind.

Unfortunately we have the only weather station on the island that is up and running. Camp Garcia's was washed out during Jeanne.

Truth be told, since we own a private weather station we are not recognized as official therefore CNN, Weather Channel, ABC, etc. is reporting we have had only 8+ inches when in reality we have had 14.73" at our house.

This is a Weatherhawk system that small airports, universities and major entities use to track weather. What I am trying to say this is not a system you go to Walmart to buy.

Hence, we will get screwed since we are not official and our island municipality has no interest in providing accurate data.

Go figure.

PS Helicopters are flying over the island..That usually means a major drug bust

I reposted this at our Caribbean - Central America thread.

[expat2carib]

It's dark gray, heavy rain and potent wind gusts here on St. Lucia at this moment.

So the wave is over land.

[Weatherfreak000]

The inconsistency of the NHC is quickly becoming an annoyance to us storm enthusiasts. Especially when you consider how many un-named storms we are having with post-season analysis.

This wave is looking above and beyond my any expectations this morning. Next invest potential.

[FireBird]

A least NHC should mention this wave as they have done with past ones to warn for heavy rains and gusty winds for the areas affected but no mention on the 8 AM TWO.

I agree. I've seen them mention a lot less. Also surprised they didn't mention the wave near 30 W. Does someone need to call and wake them up?

It's not over land yet!!! jk lol

I must say I feel the same concern. Can't help but feel that the small islands get forgotten sometimes in terms of how waves or even ITCZ weather can have tremendous impact on us. I now check NHC as a passing glance after I have gathered my data from numerous sources, and then make the judgement call for myself. Once I see a significant rain event, I share the need for caution with friends and family.

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity continues to deepen

[KWT]

The inconsistency of the NHC is quickly becoming an annoyance to us storm enthusiasts. Especially when you consider how many un-named storms we are having with post-season analysis.

This wave is looking above and beyond my any expectations this morning. Next invest potential.

This one is no where near being considered for upgrade and its got some way to go before it can even be considered for consideration

Its getting even more convectivly active now, should be a code yellow really as should the wave to the east of it...I'm getting a little annoyed at the NHC for putting percentages on systems that really have no hope but ignoring those that do have at least a chance. I know the NHC do a good job though!

[Sanibel]

Some were saying to watch this wave to see if it reconvected. It almost looks like an MJO pulse flashed both these waves on. Both have potential IMO.

[Weatherfreak000]

The inconsistency of the NHC is quickly becoming an annoyance to us storm enthusiasts. Especially when you consider how many un-named storms we are having with post-season analysis.

This wave is looking above and beyond my any expectations this morning. Next invest potential.

This one is no where near being considered for upgrade and its got some way to go before it can even be considered for consideration

Its getting even more convectivly active now, should be a code yellow really as should the wave to the east of it...I'm getting a little annoyed at the NHC for putting percentages on systems that really have no hope but ignoring those that do have at least a chance. I know the NHC do a good job though!

Haha. That argument is COMPLETELY invalid this month KWT. They invested and 0% highlighted an inland low. I mean come on, even random blobs around the ATL like the one at 30W get way more credit than that


Leave it to the NHC to invalidate the argument. I would like to point out that I mean no disrespect to the finest group of professionals around, they have just been very inconsistent with this sort of thing. Its been the case for years, it's no big surprise.

Edit: I would love to see the NHC come out with a FAQ or something about this sort of thing so we have a better idea of what exactly they are looking for. I was not looking at 99L. I would really love to know, perhaps I shall email them.