Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[Wx_Warrior]

stall ball

[KFDM Meteorologist]

UGLY....FLOOD

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 HR NAM moving it slowly North..

[Wx_Warrior]

About the 3rd run of the NAM that it's hinted....if the NAM is right.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

May not be far off

[Wx_Warrior]

[Wx_Warrior]

84H....12z CMC also had something.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NAM brings Low to Sabine Pass

[KFDM Meteorologist]

UGLY

[BigA]

NAM solution looks pretty reasonable. West Gulf spin ups around this time of year are pretty common, and ECMWF and CMC basically agree. It remains to be seen where(if) the low develops. My guess would be south of Louisiana, at the end of the front.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Should move NW then north....UGLY...

[StormClouds63]

KFDM:

Is this system the remnants of the frontal system that has moved into the GOM?

Are we looking more at at TD or TS ? Seems right now there's a lot of dry air in place after the frontal passage.

No chance of an Alicia scenario (I hope) ... nor Allison either!

Any estimate on rainfall around Lake Charles, since we might be on the east side of whatever develops?

Thanks again.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Developing along a Surface Trough. NAM may be on to this. Conditions aloft very favorable and if the system develops it will be a slow mover. TD or TS is possible. Want to see 0Z Model runs first but this is interesting and would certainly bring heavy rains to Texas and Louisiana.

[HouTXmetro]

Hypothetically let's say something forms. How much time will it generally have over water to spin up?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Plenty according to NAM...

[JenBayles]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
251 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...
AT LONG LAST...THE NEVER ENDING HEAT ADVISORY SAGA IS COMING TO AN
END! CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND FILTER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SFC DEW PTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.

LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY COUPLED WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES HAS ALLOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AN INVERTED V SOUNDING STILL SUPPORTS
WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK VERY NICE WITH
SEASONAL AUGUST TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE.

A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND A RATHER POTENT TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP FETCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO TAKE AIM ON THE TEXAS COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALSO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
SAT/SUN. THE ECMWF...GFS AND CAN SHOW THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOICATED
WEAKNESS ALOFT. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF/CAN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OF DISPLACING THE PRECIP TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHILE
THE GFS PLACES THE GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST. THE
ECMWF/CAN HAVE NOT SHOWN MUCH CONSISTENCY AND PREFER THE MORE
STABLE GFS. THE GFS SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.4 TO 2.6 INCHES AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THR COAST. IF THE GFS PANS OUT...
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH A SHARP QPF
GRADIENT. COULD SEE EXCESSIVE RAIN AT THE COAST AND LESS THAN AN
INCH OF RAIN WELL INLAND. WHICHEVER SUITE OF MODELS IS
CORRECT...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND LOWER HEIGHTS TRANSLATING INTO LOWER TEMPERATURES. 43

[Bailey1777]

kfdm do you see this as a signifigant rain event around the houston area

[Steve]

>>UGLY....FLOOD

Solution +/- (maybe a bit more north) reminiscent of Tropical Storm Frances 1998 (analog year).

[Bailey1777]

kfdm do you see this as a signifigant rain event around the houston area

[KFDM Meteorologist]

kfdm do you see this as a signifigant rain event around the houston area

certainly...If all evolves like it could.