2011 WPAC Season

[Chacor]

As of today, 2.1 named storms behind long-term average.

[Chacor]

With the sudden unexpected declaration of TS Kulap, we are now 1.1 storm behind average.

[Typhoon10]

HKO summary for month of August.

Under the prolonged dominance of the sub-tropical ridge, Hong Kong experienced one of the hottest August since records began in 1884. The monthly mean temperature soared to 29.5 degrees, equaling the record set in 1990 and 1998 and was 1.1 degrees above normal. The month was sunnier than usual. The monthly total duration of bright sunshine was 242.0 hours, 52.3 hours higher than normal. The month was also dry with a total rainfall of 157.6 millimetres, only 35 percent of the normal figure and the accumulated rainfall since 1 January of 1092.3 millimetres suffered a deficit of 42 percent compared to the normal figure of 1873.7 millimetres for the same period.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like next threat after Roke could be around Taiwan / Bashi / northern Luzon region if ECMWF verifies. It's been spinning something up for a couple of days now and worth keeping an eye on!

[StormingB81]

After a couple of runs of tha tbeing on there..the storm has disappeared..hmm

[euro6208]

Now ECMWF has a large depression developing in the South China Sea. Let's wait and see...

[Chacor]

As of today, the WPAC is 1.2 behind the 1951-2010 average of 17.2.

[dexterlabio]

Oh you guys have already been talking about the euro. Yeah they've been showing something brewing in the coming weeks. I think I should wait until Thursday and if the models still gonna show the same thing, then that's it...

Just to show the last 3 runs from Euro. It's been consistent in showing something to develop in SCS and Philippine Sea.

[Typhoon Hunter]

And the trend continues and formation of Php sea TC at 120hrs now, getting closer! This one looks like smashing Luzon hard and then heading towards S China. Interrrrressttingggggggg....

[dexterlabio]

Doesn't look good, especially to those area hit by Nanmadol last month. As per this run (if you're gonna look at the map with yellow, green and blue color thing, uhh...what do you call that? ) it shows the system bombing after emerging in SCS, seems to be HK-bound. Well it's still kinda long-range but everytime the euro becomes consistent in showing something, it's just scary because they tend to happen eventually.

[dexterlabio]

Oh if ever this is gonna hit Luzon on the said date (for goodness' sake I hope this won't verify), it will be near the 2nd anniversary of Ketsana's onslaught, and Parma. Also Xangxane in 2006. I can't remember exactly but they existed between Sept 25-Oct1. (?)

[euro6208]

one thing i noticed is that the philippine sea is not developing much storms instead they want to form at a very high latitute! so now the waters down there are really warm and ripe for intensification... as we head into the remaining months of this year, i expect some really powerful typhoons.

during la nina years, storms can develop really close to land as the warm waters are further west so countries to philippines to japan will be at risk.

[phwxenthusiast]

models are in eerily good agreement for a possible cyclone formation this week in the Philippine Sea... most of them bring it toward Luzon too..

[Typhoon Hunter]

They are Pat. ECMWF look like a Hagupit mkII (from 2008).

GFS, UKMET and CMC also all developing this and bringing it in general direction of Luzon!

[dexterlabio]

I see this beginning to happen now, with 98W developing south of Philippine Sea. Now I'm gonna trust Euro that this won't deepen that much before it gets near. Though as of now I don't see any reason to be alarmed, part of me still thinking that this may act just like Roke which veered NE instead of proceeding towards Okinawa.

[bexar]

The next name on the list would be Nesat.

2005's Nesat was a Super Typhoon.

It's so uncanny this year that mostly the same names in 2005 became super typhoons again in 2011 - Songda, Nanmadol, Muifa, Ma-on etc... while most of those that were TS in 2005 remained a TS again in 2011.

Just sayin'.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Chacor]

For the record, none of the storms you mentioned besides Nesat existed in 2005. Those were all 2004 storms.

[dexterlabio]

Euro 00z run shows a nastier scenario, bringing it closer to the national capital.
Just asking, do we have a dry phase of MJO next week?

[euro6208]

the mjo is currently weak but is showing signs of strengthening as it moves to the east.

this is from cpc:

• There are signs that the MJO may be strengthening. Most dynamical model MJO
index forecasts indicate an eastward propagating MJO signal during the next two
weeks with the enhanced phase shifting across the Maritime continent to the western
Pacific by the end of the period.

• Based on recent observations and model MJO index forecasts, the MJO is forecast to
strengthen during the period.







currently conditions in the west pacific are favorable for development .If the forecast does happen, the wpac should be even more favorable for all storms to strengthen

[euro6208]

earlier this year, i forecast 2 category 5 landfalls somewhere in the west pacific. i'm starting to think 98W might be one of them. let's wait and watch...