Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

#141 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 31, 2011 2:27 pm

HPC Discussion:

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH RETROGRESSES...THIS WILL ALLOW
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY REPOSITION...WITH AXIS FORECAST
TO SHIFT WEST BETWEEN 85W-60W BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER SHEAR
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS TROUGH PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL VENT AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACROSS
VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IT IS TO ALSO VENT
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG MEANDERING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS TO REMAIN ALONG 78W/80W...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS FEATURE BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THROUGH TIME. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS AREA AND WILL
ISSUE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS REQUIRED.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

KWT · #142 Postby **KWT** » Tue May 31, 2011 2:46 pm

ECM also develops it and hangs it down near Cuba for a good several days...

Looks like near total model agreement now, starting to look like we may have something to wach in the next 5-7 days.

#143 Postby **tailgater** » Tue May 31, 2011 3:32 pm

It looks like the models all want to keep it down below Cuba for a long time. But i for one would be surpised if it devoloped and stayed down there past this weekend. Seems like a strong high would push it into C.A. or a front or weakness would lift it out North or NE this early in the season. But we shall see.

#144 Postby **GCANE** » Tue May 31, 2011 3:35 pm

Solar heating of the cirrus layer today seems to have helped to reduce shear.

A new over-shooting top has fired and I don't see any UL winds shearing off the tops of the Cu.

It maybe starting to develop some radial UL outflow.

#145 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue May 31, 2011 3:58 pm

12z Euro

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

#146 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue May 31, 2011 4:11 pm

Gotta be an invest soon

Hurricaneman · #147 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue May 31, 2011 4:17 pm

I believe this will be an invest by tomorrow afternoon, but shear might be a short term problem for it, but dont be suprised if sometime next week we might have the first named storm of the season, but dont expect anything stronger than a minimal tropical storm

#148 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 31, 2011 4:34 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Gotta be an invest soon

Maybe a floater is needed right now before the invest is up.

KWT · #149 Postby **KWT** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:03 pm

Given the convection down there and also the models forecasts, I'd be expecting an invest soon enough as well.

#150 Postby **tolakram** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:20 pm

Late afternoon poofation, but some interesting twists and turns, so to speak.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

#151 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:23 pm

Still firing deep convection along the NW band

KatDaddy · #152 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:23 pm

This will become our next Invest. It showing signs of rotation over the far SW Caribbean.

#153 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:24 pm

HPC Final Update:

ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE
RIDGE...A BROAD CONVECTIVE LOW CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF PANAMA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BULK OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE RETROGRADES AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO /UNLIKE THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS/ WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LOW CONSTRAINED TO THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC MAINTAINED
REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE. AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
A LARGE SYSTEM...ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

#154 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:33 pm

GFS doesn't have a clue. It has very low pressures across much of the Caribbean running from 1006 to 1007mb. It keeps developing different areas.
This run develops it around PR

The Ukie has been the most consistent.

[img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

#155 Postby **MGC** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:53 pm

That nasty shear should hold back development in the near term....if and when the shear lifts out there should be a window of opportunity for a TC to develope but it is going to take a while. If convection persists than this should be an invest soon......MGC

#156 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue May 31, 2011 5:54 pm

NHC experimental

Hylian Auree · #157 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Tue May 31, 2011 6:27 pm

The subtropical jet stream in the area does seem to be lifting. Shear should be less of a concern in a few days, but I'm dubious about what will happen until then.

#158 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue May 31, 2011 6:29 pm

Hylian Auree wrote:The subtropical jet stream in the area does seem to be lifting. Shear should be less of a concern in a few days, but I'm dubious about what will happen until then.

I agree, until shear decreases, nothing is likely to get going. Once the subtropical jet lifts out of the area, it may even provide some ventilation for the low pressure to get going. Certainly this is the area to watch this time of the year.

SETXPTNeches · #159 Postby **SETXPTNeches** » Tue May 31, 2011 7:01 pm

New to s2k but been reading for years...Ready to start tracking and would love some rain soon in SETX!!!! Very hot here!!! Willing to go thru a Tropical event to get the rain as long as I don't have to evacuate!!

#160 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue May 31, 2011 7:21 pm

Welcome to S2K!

Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Re: Area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean

Who is online