Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[cycloneye]

The big story that this wave will bring to the islands is this= That is because some of the Lesser Antille islands need it badly as a drought has been with them for months. Some squally weather may arrive,but let's see how much it falls in Antigua,Dominica,Guadeloupe,St Maarten among those that need it.

[IreneSurvivor47]

Yeah, I would say 10-20% at two though 20% is pretty generous. We'll see how this develops. Looks pretty good right now compared to yesterday.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... b_loop.gif

[IreneSurvivor47]

This is far, far into the future and is only spitball going around the forum, but if this goes up the east coast, the warm water goes up really far. This I no way official and not endorsed by any thing

[wxman57]

This is far, far into the future and is only spitball going around the forum, but if this goes up the east coast, the warm water goes up really far. This I no way official and not endorsed by any thing

Steering flow indicates a west track across the central to southern Caribbean then into Central America (then East Pac). Wind shear 20-25 kts over it now, increasing across the central Caribbean to 40-50 kts.

[IreneSurvivor47]

This is far, far into the future and is only spitball going around the forum, but if this goes up the east coast, the warm water goes up really far. This I no way official and not endorsed by any thing

Steering flow indicates a west track across the central to southern Caribbean then into Central America (then East Pac). Wind shear 20-25 kts over it now, increasing across the central Caribbean to 40-50 kts.

Any potential threat to US at all?

[IreneSurvivor47]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... up-1/68571
This takes the storm a little off the east coast.

[TheBurn]

P07L seems to be doing a good job of plowing the road, though drier air is trying to fill in a bit behind it.
Interesting feature NNE of PR... ULL finding way down to surface?

[NDG]

This is far, far into the future and is only spitball going around the forum, but if this goes up the east coast, the warm water goes up really far. This I no way official and not endorsed by any thing

Steering flow indicates a west track across the central to southern Caribbean then into Central America (then East Pac). Wind shear 20-25 kts over it now, increasing across the central Caribbean to 40-50 kts.

Any potential threat to US at all?

The euro has been persistent in bringing the moisture & vorticity of this tropical wave over Hispaniola through Cuba into the Bahamas and close to SE FL. It makes sense with the the troughiness across the eastern US to hang around over the next few days.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah even the GFS splits the vorticity and part goes into the bahamas. however it might try to organize here as long as convection becomes just a little more concentrated.

as the wave/low passed near or right over this bouy last night. just about 1010mb

[IreneSurvivor47]

Thank you NDG,that was informative

[Gustywind]

Twave continues to improve its structure as convection continues to expand everywhere, and pretty nicely.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N52W TO 8N56W E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES MOVING W AT 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 53W-59W.

[TheBurn]

18:45z VIS / IR (Day / Night)

[Gustywind]

Interresting fact to note: yellow alert has been activated this afternoon for Guadeloupe due to the arrival of the strong twave churning near Guadeloupe. A risk of strong showers and tstorms is highly possible given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. I will keep your informed as usual and as possible.

[IreneSurvivor47]

Is it possible this may be highlighted at 8pm?

[floridasun78]

it look like nhc want see if get more models support before add to outlook

[floridasun78]

Is it possible this may be highlighted at 8pm?

not thing on 8pm

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.


TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 21N56W TO
9N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR THE AXIS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
ALSO INDICATE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.
CURRENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
52W-57W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 57W-61W.

[cycloneye]

Here comes the rain that some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles chain need as the drought has been bad.

[cycloneye]

Big flareup just east of Guadelope/Dominica. These are two of the islands of the Eastern Caribbean that have been thru a big drought so this is a welcome thing.