2013 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

This is the area that Alyono mentioned.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has been resilient with two storms tracking really close to Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has been resilient with two storms tracking really close to Hawaii.

Have any other models have? Or is the GFS alone (i.e. Rosa 12)?

[cycloneye]

The EPAC has new Invest 93E.

[gatorcane]

EPAC continues to crank out storms. You would almost think an MJO wet-phase pulse is present for all this activity but it is not.

[Ntxw]

EPAC continues to crank out storms. You would almost think an MJO wet-phase pulse is present for all this activity but it is not.

Kelvin waves . They act kind of like a makeshift MJO, not a global scale of course.

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC continues to crank out storms. You would almost think an MJO wet-phase pulse is present for all this activity but it is not.

Kelvin waves . They act kind of like a makeshift MJO, not a global scale of course.

When will the MJO arrive in the EPAC?

[Yellow Evan]

Juliette and Ivo. I'm assuming the thing on the left is not Henriette.

[Ntxw]

When will the MJO arrive in the EPAC?

The MJO is currently extremely weak with no defined areas of convection. It is forecasted to remain that way for many more weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

Just a TD by Hawaii here.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC has Ivo (92E) and Kiko.

[Yellow Evan]

Juliette and Erin (in the BOC, though that belongs on another thread)



MX landfall for Kiko (assuming both 92E and 93E form)

[Yellow Evan]

Assuming 93E busts, Juliette could be a Jimena 09 or Juliette 01 redux.

[Yellow Evan]

Sounds like John 06.

[Ntxw]

The Euro has been hinting at something along the Mexican coast, any thoughts on that? Wonder if it's the same thing.

Side note: Isn't it weird a couple of CPAC features (about to cross the dateline) looks better than their counterparts over in the Atlantic ? I don't recall this many active systems (still below ACE though) effect the CPAC and western EPAC in a non-El Nino year.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: The Euro has been hinting at something along the Mexican coast, any thoughts on that? Wonder if it's the same thing.

Side note: Isn't it weird a couple of CPAC features (about to cross the dateline) looks better than their counterparts over in the Atlantic ? I don't recall this many active systems (still below ACE though) effect the CPAC and western EPAC in a non-El Nino year.

Yes, it is the same thing. It's gonna be fun to track. I am not a fan of the Euro though, it is terrible in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

First things first, Ivo forms far offshore



Major Hurricane Juliete! First of the season. Sounds like Paul 12



Near MX coast while Fernad and Gabrielle are having a blast in the ATL.



Two runs back, it shows a Miriam 12-like storm.



Two more runs back, GFS shows a major, a little like Ignacio 03 (which was the first storm I've ever tracked).



CFS shows Kikio, but it is SUPER long range.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS does not like Pewa.



GFS first hints Ivo.



Ivo in it's prime



Ivo and Juliette, hmm, interesting

.

Much weaker and much further west than in past runs. I noticed this with the first runs of Gil and Henriette so it's no shellshock.



But here comes Kiko. But this is a large tendency within the GFS to show a storm just after a storm weakened in the long-range. So, I am not sold on this.



Juliette hanging around near CPHC AOR! while Kiko hits Baja.



CMC in line with the GFS showing Ivo and Juliette, the latter being powerful, but both out at sea.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170550
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[somethingfunny]

I spy upper-level lows near 10°N/140°W and also just off the tip of Baja California. That seems unusual to me, but it's nice to remind the people freaking out about ULLs in the Gulf that they happen in other basins too.