Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[Hurricaneman]

The models are starting to latch on to this pouch, the Canadian being the most robust but not strong, the GFS has picked up on this wave so in essence this may need to be watched especially if Erin gets involved with this feature

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[BigA]

12Z NAVGEM develops this feature, as does the 12Z Canadian. The more reputable models, as of yet, do not.

[Gustywind]

2 PM Discussion.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AN
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO 10N61W AND MOVING WEST NEAR 5 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT N
OF 12N WHILE SOUTH OF THAT LATITUDE IT IS WITHIN A MOISTER
ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS REPORTED
RAINSHOWERS WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z NAVGEM run ends 180 hours from now. Look at what it this pouch becomes in the NW Bahamas:

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Here is how the 12Z NAVGEM run ends 180 hours from now. Look at what it this pouch becomes in the NW Bahamas:

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/2637/e7sk.png

Uh oh... Here comes Gabby

[floridasun78]

so we may see some thing with wave by leewards next few days?

[BigA]

Very rarely does something develop in the eastern Caribbean, so I don't expect anything in the next three days. That said, there is decent 850 mb vorticity associated with this feature, and it could find favorable conditions farther west, whether that is the Bahamas or the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.

[perk]

so we may see some thing with wave by leewards next few days?

The way this season has been going,i would not bet the farm on it.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE WAVE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N61W TO 10N62W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST SSMI ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[Gustywind]

By the way, Guadeloupe back off the yellow alert, back to green code.
Given our pro mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, this twave continues move out of the island but brang numerous nice showers. Rainfall reached 60 to 70 millimeters on the northern part of the island.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM ends with this pouch just offshore Southeastern Florida. At 144 hours saved image below:

[gatorcane]

There appears to be low-level vorticity associated with this pouch:

[colbroe]

Just an update it has been raining cats and dogs for the last two hours in Barbados ,lightning and thunder .

[Gustywind]

Just an update it has been raining cats and dogs for the last two hours in Barbados ,lightning and thunder .

Thanks for that report . Here is the reason Colbroe:


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 19 2013

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N67W TO 23N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACCORDING TO
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 10N-21N BETWEEN 60W-65W.
THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NE CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 61W-65W.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

Tropical Outlook: Wet in the Windward Islands
A trough will bring showers to the Windward Islands today, but development is not expected.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

[abajan]

We've been getting southwesterly winds for the last few hours:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

The winds are becoming kinda gusty too. This might be the system to watch.

[Gustywind]

We've been getting southwesterly winds for the last few hours:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

The winds are becoming kinda gusty too. This might be the system to watch.

Thanks Abajan . Be aware and continue to keep us informed.

[tropicwatch]

A little surprised they didn't mention this area in the 2pm TWO.

[wxman57]

Not mentioned because it's not likely going to develop. Limited moisture and no good rotation on the TPW loop (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html). Airmass in the Caribbean is still a bit too stable and shear is too high. We could well not see another named storm until September, though I'm not ready to make that bet.

[CrazyC83]

Is this one of the modelled EPAC storms?