Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

Invest tomorrow?

Not so fast as they first have to get a low pressure to track.

[Stormcenter]

Excerpt from NWS N.O., LA. discussion this afternoon.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013

.
.LONG TERM...
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE ATYPICAL MIDDLE OF THE WEEK HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES CARVES A WEAKNESS DOWN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT
ULTIMATELY BRINGS A SURFACE COOL FRONT TO THE GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE PATTERN TO THE WEST OVER THE PLAINS STATES
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ESTABLISH A CHANNEL OF VORTICITY LOBES
DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME. THIS OUT OF SEASON PATTERN
WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR EFFICIENT RAINS AND A FLOOD POTENTIAL
WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. THE GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BUT GETS INTERESTING FOR THE WEEKEND. IT IS THE ONLY
CONVENTIONAL MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN THE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES NEXT SATURDAY. WHILE NOT TOTALLY BUYING OFF WHOLE-
HOG...TELECONNECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW WILL
CREATE A VULNERABILITY FOR THE AREA SHOULD A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TAFB UNIT...WHO PREPARES THE
WIND GRIDS FOR THE OUTER GULF WATERS...IS IN CONSENSUS OF AT LEAST
INDICATING A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WIND FIELD TO SKIRT THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS NEXT SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE LIKEWISE FOR NOW
BUT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
INCIDENTLY...THAT WOULD BE THE ANNIVERSARY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF
1969...JUST SAYING.

[fci]

First use of the 5 day outlook in TWO for the Atlantic basin.
I like it.

[cycloneye]

For those members who may not know this,NHC is developing a graphic to highlight the five day systems.That is why you don't see a circle right now even if a future area was mentioned in 8 PM TWO.

[Javlin]

I thought this was the discussion being referenced

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013

[cycloneye]

I posted it on the page behind this one. It came out at 7 PM,way early.

[abajan]

This is the first Atlantic TWO I've seen since the implementation of the 5-day system, where the 2-day and 5-day outlooks differ. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

[southerngale]

I thought this was the discussion being referenced

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112308
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013

It is, but isn't showing up on the map yet.

[Rgv20]

12zHWRF Experimental Basin Scale Forecast for 126hrs.....Look at the BOC!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Here is the link: http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?projectName=BASIN

[floridasun78]

this cool by nhc doing this

[South Texas Storms]

What's the link for that HWRF Experimental forecast Rgv?

[Rgv20]

12zGFS/EnKF Ensemble Members thru 126hrs, 2 of them to the Northern GOM and 5 in the BOC..



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Javlin]

12zHWRF Experimental Basin Scale Forecast for 126hrs.....Look at the BOC!


Here is the link: http://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/hwrfxprojects/?projectName=BASIN

Lookingat the supposed cloud structure it could be NGOM region but this is conjecture ATTM!

[ROCK]

the 18Z NAM brings our friend into the meat of the Yucatan at 84hrs....just extraping it out, it looks like BOC bound.

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[CrazyC83]

NWS NOLA bringing up Camille? Not a smart idea. Those kind of comparisons set off the hype machine.

[Javlin]

NWS NOLA bringing up Camille? Not a smart idea. Those kind of comparisons set off the hype machine.

Well the NGOM gets punched alot this time of year from TX/LA to Panama/FL besides that alot and I say maybe 80-90% of JoeSmo's out there never read these.It is up to one's local News Network to leave that part out.

[gatorcane]

18Z FIM model 156 hours forecast below. Looks quite intense and ends up making landfall in Louisiana:

[jlauderdal]

NWS NOLA bringing up Camille? Not a smart idea. Those kind of comparisons set off the hype machine.

i thought that was a very strange comment in the disco...especially for a system not even developed

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[Pearl River]

I think they were bringing up Camille just because it's the 44th anniversary to the very weekend, jmo.

[ROCK]

FIM summary today

18Z is SW LA

12Z was Upper TX Coast

06Z was Upper TX coast

0Z was Upper TX coast