Possible development in the Caribbean

[gatorcane]

12z FIM continues with the W. Caribbean hurricane. Probably the strongest I have seen so far. So its the CMC, NAVGEM and FIM against the two top guns and the question is are they going to sink or swim. I am surprised by the consistency in the three models. I thought at least one would have dropped by now.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2013102812/244/wind_10m_f336.png

The FIM is developing something else, not system that is just southeast of the Windwards that the CMC and NAVGEM develop later this week in the Southwest Caribbean area

[blp]

00z GFS not a major change but the 850 vorticity is better defined and it now keeps the low all the way through until it is picked up by a front and goes over Florida in 216hrs. Let's see if the next runs strengthen it.

[Blown Away]

FIM consistently showing a hurricane in the Caribbean...


GEM/Canadian consistently showing a hurricane in the Caribbean...

GFS/Euro not so much...

[WeatherEmperor]

FIM consistently showing a hurricane in the Caribbean...


GEM/Canadian consistently showing a hurricane in the Caribbean...

GFS/Euro not so much...

What about the Navgem?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Blown Away]

What about the Navgem?

Nothing through 180 hours...

[Hammy]

When I see the FIM and NAVGEM showing something yet the Euro/GFS don't, all I can think is the system back in August that they were so bullish with that ended up doing nothing but giving us a short-lived naked swirl.

[WeatherEmperor]

Welcome back Storm2k

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Any Updates on this topic?

[Ntxw]

Any Updates on this topic?

There was and is still very little support from the two major globals of anything significant organizing. A lot was stirred by long range FIM. The MJO is currently in the Caribbean and gulf yet there is little activity. It's November not September, there's little evidence to support from the models. December is just around the corner, time to look for signals for 2014.

[hurricanes1234]

Any Updates on this topic?

There was and is still very little support from the two major globals of anything significant organizing. A lot was stirred by long range FIM. The MJO is currently in the Caribbean and gulf yet there is little activity. It's November not September, there's little evidence to support from the models. December is just around the corner, time to look for signals for 2014.

The shear map seems to be diagnosing over 30 knots of wind shear here, not to mention the subsidence in the western Caribbean. I strongly believe this will just be another model system. In addition to this, you are indeed correct, it's November and not September. Even in September, we couldn't even get proper storms going, so nothing makes me think we'll get anything in November, aside from one very weak system, if anything. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we end at Lorenzo, in fact, I will be surprised if we get another named system here. This season is virtually finished in my opinion. Yes, there is potential for something significant to form in November, but I'll put the chances at <3%. Here is a statistic: the month of September ONLY in 2010 had a higher ACE by over double than this ENTIRE season combined. One example of how pathetic this year has been. A huge relief for everyone, though.


THE PRECEDING WAS NOT OFFICIAL INFORMATION OF ANY KIND AND IS NOT MEANT TO BE USED AS SUCH!

[gatorcane]

While storm2k was down this past week, I watched the CMC (and to a lesser extent the NAVGEM) spin up phantom storm after phantom storm coming out of the Caribbean, some of them rather strong. The GFS nor ECMWF did this. Clearly the CMC's upgrade hasn't helped much and the NAVGEM is still much inferior to the GFS. Looks like the Caribbean system is not going to happen and yet again going against the GFS and ECMWF for predicting genesis proves to not be a good idea

[hurricanes1234]

While storm2k was down this past week, I watched the CMC (and to a lesser extent the NAVGEM) spin up phantom storm after phantom storm coming out of the Caribbean, some of them rather strong. The GFS nor ECMWF did this. Clearly the CMC's upgrade hasn't helped much and the NAVGEM is still much inferior to the GFS. Looks like the Caribbean system is not going to happen and yet again going against the GFS and ECMWF for predicting genesis proves to not be a good idea

As I mentioned, conditions, as usual, are rather terrible across much of the Caribbean. I don't expect anything from this.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is a look at the current shear for the sake of it. Way too much shear for anything to get going. Looks to be the end of the pathetic 2013 hurricane season IMO. (Thank god! )

Shear Tendency:


Wind Shear:

[hurricanes1234]

Can't wait for this season to end. Has to be the most deceiving season in quite some time. Predictions of up to 5 and 6 major hurricanes, yet, barely 2 hurricanes have materialised, both of which were moderate Category 1s. As some articles have said - this year is the hurricane season without hurricanes.

[TheStormExpert]

Can't wait for this season to end. Has to be the most deceiving season in quite some time. Predictions of up to 5 and 6 major hurricanes, yet, barely 2 hurricanes have materialised, both of which were moderate Category 1s. As some articles have said - this year is the hurricane season without hurricanes.

This season has made recent below average seasons like 2006 & 2009 look better.
2006 #'s: (10 N.S.) (5 H.) (2 M.H.)
2009 #'s: (9 N.S.) (3 H.) (2 M.H.)
2013 #'s: (12 N.S.) (2 H.) (0 M.H.)
There could always be one more storm but have a feeling the seasons over.

[Sanibel]

The models were creating a phantom storm.

[stephen23]

What is going on in carribean at the present moment. Looks like something is trying to get its act together. Appears to be really good convection and can see some spin. Has only looked this way over past couple of hours. Area below dr

[stephen23]

What is going on in carribean at the present moment. Looks like something is trying to get its act together. Appears to be really good convection and can see some spin. Has only looked this way over past couple of hours. Area below dr

[stephen23]

What is going on in carribean at the present moment. Looks like something is trying to get its act together. Appears to be really good convection and can see some spin. Has only looked this way over past couple of hours. Area below dr

[hurricanes1234]

What is going on in carribean at the present moment. Looks like something is trying to get its act together. Appears to be really good convection and can see some spin. Has only looked this way over past couple of hours. Area below dr

Wind shear is in excess of 30 knots here, coupled with strong subsidence (dry air). In my opinion, it would be extremely difficult to get something to form here. As of now, the most I see is a red-circled invest out of this, which might still be a bit too much.


The preceding was NOT official.