2014 hurricane season forecasts

[Alyono]

I'd be suspicious of the long range EC forecast for the Caribbean having higher than normal pressures. Probably wont play out that way due to the very high heat content. I suspect the EC only has SST and not heat content

[gigabite]

IMO the 1948 Atlantic Hurricane Season could be used as an possible analog season for this year. Just minus a few of the intense storms and hurricanes and overall track this seems possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Moon Path with May SST's

I am using 2013 as an analog. It has an early June tropical storm. The 1948 analog has late May tropical storm.

I am plotting the New Moon hugging the 27° C contour in late May as it crosses from the East Pacific into the Caribbean. This could accelerate evaporation. That has been my hypothesis.
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[Ntxw]

Still not much change in vertical instability. If we pretend the Nino will not happen, I still would guess this to be a slop season not unlike last year. Maybe some more named storms though but the -AMO configuration lately sure won't help in storm intensities. However the NW Atlantic (where the previous warmth was) is cooling and the eastern basin is warming, perhaps that will give us a positive AMO reading soon.

[tolakram]

Just glancing at the shear graphs it appears every zone is hovering around normal, so no el nino effect yet.

[windnrain]

Where do you get the shear graphs, especially in terms of normality?

[Hurricaneman]

These are the numbers to ENSO phase

Strong El Nino
avg 7\3\1

Moderate El Nino
avg 8.6\3.8\1.6

Weak El Nino
avg 11.3\7\3.5

Neutral
avg 12\6.8\2.6

Weak La Nina
avg 13.1\6.8\3.3

Moderate La Nina
avg 13\8\3.3

Strong La Nina
avg 12\7\3.4

so if we go by this being a high end moderate to low end strong El Nino we could have anywhere between 7to 9 named storms, 3 to 4 hurricanes and basically 1 to 2 hurricanes just like the NOAA forecast says in the other thread but as always other factors could come into play as we get into the hurricane season like vertical instability and Shear

[gigabite]

THDV: The average vertical instability parameter, defined as the vertical average temperature difference between the equivalent potential temperature of a parcel lifted from the surface to 200 hPa, and the saturation equivalent potential temperature of the environment.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... iption.asp
5-22-2014

graphs
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... enesis.asp

[tolakram]

That product is dead, stopped in 2013.

I missed the original question, so sorry for the delay.

Here is the Tropical Cyclone Formation page: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Scroll down for all the graphs.

LIVE graph

[gigabite]

Basis of Moon Path Hypothesis Activity 27 Conclusion........January 27, 2004
January’s new moon was on the 21st , the phase started on January 17, 2004 over the south Pacific and ended on January 26, 2004 over the mid Atlantic. On January 23, 2004 on the 18:00 GOES East Satellite a significant cloud bloom shows the Bow Shock of the lunar sub-point over South America that followed through to the 26th. The Naples rain gauge recorded 1.08 inches on January 19, 2004, also there was a 6.7 magnitude earthquake exactly 180 degrees from the lunar sub point at the time of the earthquake.

The red dots are the lunar sub point the blue dot is the sub point at the New Moon.

[Ntxw]

With the Atlantic hurricane season approaching lets hope for at least one good fish storm to track.

Meanwhile this still doesn't look great.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... t_THDV.gif

Last year I remember discussing about how the inactive (count) tornado season seemed to go in hand with the dead hurricane season. 2014's tornado season (count) is in the gutter and nearing record lows. Will the Atlantic season follow suit? Or will against all odds and mother nature pull another one on us like she did in 2013 in the opposite direction?

[gigabite]

This is an animation by day of the Passage of the New Moon in May 2014.
During the passage East Pacific Hurricane Amanda persisted.

[SFLcane]

With the Atlantic hurricane season approaching lets hope for at least one good fish storm to track.

Meanwhile this still doesn't look great.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... t_THDV.gif

Last year I remember discussing about how the inactive (count) tornado season seemed to go in hand with the dead hurricane season. 2014's tornado season (count) is in the gutter and nearing record lows. Will the Atlantic season follow suit? Or will against all odds and mother nature pull another one on us like she did in 2013 in the opposite direction?

outlooks have been horrendous last few yrs. Who knows what conditions will be present 2-3 months from now.

[Ntxw]

The AMO last month (latest reading) reversed back to slightly postive at +0.021 up from being negative. Lets see if this becomes more permanent.

Something interesting, there's 70kts+ of westerly shear in the Caribbean, is this normal in June?

[TheStormExpert]

That strong westerly shear across the MDR regions typical throughout El Niño seasons seems to already be establishing itself across those regions even before the anticipated El Niño has arrived! This could really put a damper on the season all together especially the chances of early season development prior to the El Niño. Chances that this season is quieter and less active than last year are increasing IMO.

[Ntxw]

It will continue for some time, maybe not quite as intense but will remain. I'm posting the GEM because frankly the GFS continuously tries to break it down and place very favorable conditions (thus the nonstop phantoms) which just has not verified at all and been horrendous.

Time sensitive link

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

It will be some time before we get a decent Atlantic interest, perhaps somewhere off the SE coast in the subtropics where it is less hostile if the MJO traverses eastward away from the Maritimes and WPAC, which would take a few weeks. Sinking air is dominant at the moment, may be July until it picks up if it does.

[NDG]

The AMO last month (latest reading) reversed back to slightly postive at +0.021 up from being negative. Lets see if this becomes more permanent.

Something interesting, there's 70kts+ of westerly shear in the Caribbean, is this normal in June?

http://i58.tinypic.com/9aod3o.gif

Not at all normal for June, there is usually shear this time of the year in the Caribbean but not that strong.
CFSv2 forecasts for continuing high shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic but interestingly it shows below average shear for most of the subtropical Atlantic and most of GOM for the rest of the season.

[Ntxw]

We'll have to watch waves that survive the ripping MDR. If they can move north off the SE Atlantic coast, they have a decent chance IMO where shear is below normal or normal, in other years they don't survive. That's what makes 2004 different from other modoki's in that category, waves managed to move northward and remain there enough (and of course bee-line to FL).

[TheStormExpert]

In 2004 the MDR had average/slightly above average instability throughout the peak months.

Currently to date in 2014 instability in the MDR is nowhere near 2004's levels. IMO the instability will continue to sag below normal for the remainder of the season.

Also several storms like Frances, and Ivan in 2004 managed to blowup in intensity will traversing the MDR.

[blp]

In 2004 the MDR had average/slightly above average instability throughout the peak months.
http://i59.tinypic.com/2i6ktva.jpg[/img]
Currently to date in 2014 instability in the MDR is nowhere near 2004's levels. IMO the instability will continue to sag below normal for the remainder of the season.
http://i59.tinypic.com/2v8l36c.jpg[/img]
Also several storms like Frances, and Ivan in 2004 managed to blowup in intensity will traversing the MDR.

That graphic about Instability for the Atlantic needs to be verified. When they changed the parameters for that region a few years ago (I believe they expanded the coverage area range for the coordinates for the region if I am not mistaken) they might have messed up the Normal curve. I know the instability is below normal but that graphic looks to be exaggerating the problem a bit.

As for the wind shear it is definitely above average in an El Nino year for so early in the season. Typically in El Nino you get the higher wind shear starting in July and pattern persists off and on later on in the season and that is why Oct and Nov months are usually non factors in an El Nino year. This is why June typically produces some early season development in El Nino years. This appears to not be the case this year as it looks like the Caribbean will be shut down till the end of the month. Not a good sign for those that want to see action since July is typically more brutal than June with a persistent TUTT taking over.

09 Season


06 Season


02 Season

[wxman57]

I believe the "normal" for the stability graphics was recalculated to include the current (new) region.