Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[gatorcane]

Saved image below. Convection has maintained for just about 24 hours now and the area that has persisted has blown up again which is interesting:

[abajan]

The convection with this continues to be very persistent. Should be interesting to see what happens during the overnight hours, especially around D-Max. It's traveling really fast though.

[cycloneye]

NHC director Knabb posted this on Twitter to answer the question about why this wave is not highlighted:

Potomac Weather ‏@PotomacWx · 6h
@NHCDirector Why isn't this area in the Central Atlantic not circled? Thunderstorms continue to persist pic.twitter.com/2S6fuMUFTs


Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector · 1m
Hi @PotomacWx. We only highlight in Tropical Weather Outlook systems with sufficient chance within 5 days to become tropical cyclone.

[somethingfunny]

Some folks might wish for the NHC to post ten 0% AOIs on every TWO

[CFLHurricane]

Some folks might wish for the NHC to post ten 0% AOIs on every TWO

That'd be quite nice, actually.

[Hurricaneman]

Who knows but if it retains convection it may be highlighted later tonight or tomorrow morning

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[abajan]

This reminds me a bit of a tropical wave last year that looked everything like a hurricane. (Was that last year?)

[Siker]

This reminds me a bit of a tropical wave last year that looked everything like a hurricane. (Was that last year?)

There was one tropical wave back in June of last year which seemed to be a definite tropical cyclone, it had a clearly closed circulation and heavy convection, but it poofed the next day so there wasn't much point in classifying it.

[floridasun78]

so look like could be add if look better in morning?

[Tropics Guy]

Looks like some persistent convection and possible circulation developing, IMO should be tagged an invest soon if it maintains itself. Will be interesting to see the morning visibles. Any model support for this yet?

TG

[meriland23]

If this does become a invest, seeing where it is now..if this happens to strengthen to TS or hurr down the road, will this still be expected to fish way way out or would it be potentially worrisome for landfall interaction?

[Hurricaneman]

If this does become a invest, seeing where it is now..if this happens to strengthen to TS or hurr down the road, will this still be expected to fish way way out or would it be potentially worrisome for landfall interaction?

Theres a good chance this becomes something down the road but its too early to tell if this is a landfall candidate or fish

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

This area will be lucky to even get mentioned in the NHC's TWO with the very unfavorable environment it will soon be heading into. 30-40kts. of shear should finish this off in an instant in a couple of days.

[cycloneye]

Umm,at least there is something interesting there that ASCAT caught.

[Yellow Evan]

If this does become a invest, seeing where it is now..if this happens to strengthen to TS or hurr down the road, will this still be expected to fish way way out or would it be potentially worrisome for landfall interaction?

Theres a good chance this becomes something down the road

Why do you think this has a good chance? It has shear to deal with.

[Hurricaneman]

It has the look if it can survive the shear zone is what I meant so my bad for not clarifying that

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[somethingfunny]

If this does become a invest, seeing where it is now..if this happens to strengthen to TS or hurr down the road, will this still be expected to fish way way out or would it be potentially worrisome for landfall interaction?

Theres a good chance this becomes something down the road

Why do you think this has a good chance? It has shear to deal with.

I think he was being intentionally vague. This road travels all the way to Vietnam after all so yes, I also think there is a good chance this wave will develop at some point down the road.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z GFS running now again, does not develop this at least in the 72 hours of the run I am seeing so far. In fact looking at the simulated IR satellite from the 00Z GFS, convection should wind down within the next 24 hours.

That said, it's impressive how long this convection has maintained though it does seem the cloud tops are warming some, even as we approach DMAX. Hard to tell if there is anything at the surface but that ASCAT pass was interesting.

GFS does ramp up the westerly shear in the next 2-3 days out there. No model that I can see develops this. Maybe some will on the 00Z runs.

[Frank2]

Nothing in the 2 a.m. TWO either - its toast ; )

[abajan]

Nothing in the 2 a.m. TWO either - its toast ; )

Yes, it certainly looks like toast this morning. Really had me fooled.
Now we see why the NHC wasn't too enthused about it.