2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

CFS shows below normal rain during hurricane season, which during years where it tends to overdue the expected decrease in non-TC rains off the West Coast of MX.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC shows a hurricane, but keeps it offshore.



GFS keeps it near Central America

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,here is why EPAC has not started off the gate.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 30m30 minutes ago
@webberweather @wxtrackercody agree- the lack of a cold tongue helps the ITCZ stay too far south. In July it doesn't matter but in May yes

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,here is why EPAC has not started off the gate.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 30m30 minutes ago
@webberweather @wxtrackercody agree- the lack of a cold tongue helps the ITCZ stay too far south. In July it doesn't matter but in May yes

C
Confirms my reasoning a couple pages back. Warm SST's keep the ITCZ south.

[Kingarabian]

Yellow Evan,here is why EPAC has not started off the gate.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 30m30 minutes ago
@webberweather @wxtrackercody agree- the lack of a cold tongue helps the ITCZ stay too far south. In July it doesn't matter but in May yes

C
Confirms my reasoning a couple pages back. Warm SST's keep the ITCZ south.

Warmer than average SST's.

So I guess during Nino years, May is usually slow? Or are SST's near the ITCZ not usually this warm despite an El-Nino?

Learn something new everyday!

[Yellow Evan]

Yellow Evan,here is why EPAC has not started off the gate.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 30m30 minutes ago
@webberweather @wxtrackercody agree- the lack of a cold tongue helps the ITCZ stay too far south. In July it doesn't matter but in May yes

C
Confirms my reasoning a couple pages back. Warm SST's keep the ITCZ south.

Warmer than average SST's.

So I guess during Nino years, May is usually slow? Or are SST's near the ITCZ not usually this warm despite an El-Nino?

Learn something new everyday!

In traditional and even some non-traditional Ninos, they usually are. Hurts in October/November as well.

[Yellow Evan]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 8m8 minutes ago Cambridge, MA

See indications that the first East Pacific tropical cyclone of the year could spawn the first week of June.

In addition, NASA shows Ela.





Also confirms my early start theory.

[cycloneye]

Now with Social Media we can know a lot what the pros are discussing.In this case NHC specialist Eric Blake,Dr Michael Ventrice and Dr Ryan Maue talk about the first possible EPAC development.


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 7m7 minutes ago
@MJVentrice @RyanMaue convection city in EPac. Will be watching area at 100w 5/28. Earlier farther west. Then your cpac adventure


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 6m6 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice yup.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 19m19 minutes ago  Cambridge, MA
@EricBlake12 @RyanMaue I stand corrected- liking the idea between 5/29-6/6. ECMwf Weeklies just came out & support central Pac TC idea Ryan!

[Yellow Evan]

Now with Social Media we can know a lot what the pros are discussing.In this case NHC specialists Eric Blake,Michael Ventrice and Dr Ryan Maue talk about the first possible EPAC development.


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 7m7 minutes ago
@MJVentrice @RyanMaue convection city in EPac. Will be watching area at 100w 5/28. Earlier farther west. Then your cpac adventure


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 6m6 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 @MJVentrice yup.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 19m19 minutes ago  Cambridge, MA
@EricBlake12 @RyanMaue I stand corrected- liking the idea between 5/29-6/6. ECMwf Weeklies just came out & support central Pac TC idea Ryan!

I've been following their convo a bit. I have my doubts about this, given that phantom CPAC storms in models are very common in approaching CCKW's and MJO pulses.

[Yellow Evan]

Last three GFS runs show two systems, one hurricane and a tropical storm off of Central America.

[cycloneye]

Area is highlighted.

[cycloneye]

Landfall in Cabo.

[Yellow Evan]

Doubt Andrea will make it that far. Too much shear and cold SST's in the way.

[cycloneye]

ECMWF joins GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC also blew Andres up into a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 6m6 minutes ago
@RyanMaue @CycloforumsPR might need a sector in the SW Epac and CPac if this El Niño really gets going. Low pressure city by day 10

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 51m51 minutes ago
When the EC Ens mean has a 2 SD low, even at day 10, I take notice-- big TC signal & makes sense intraseasonally pic.twitter.com/POihfPdXu3

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS sends this to Baja, and peaks it at 977 mbar.

[CaliforniaResident]

If we don't see a named storm in the EPAC by the end of this month, I'm going to recant my 33/22/11 season forecast and also my forecast for a Southern California landfall in early to mid October.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If we don't see a named storm in the EPAC by the end of this month, I'm going to recant my 33/22/11 season forecast and also my forecast for a Southern California landfall in early to mid October.

So you're saying the presence of a named storm this month will affect a California landfall by October?