2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[jconsor]

What do you mean by "Alma was most likely phantom storm"?

"1966 - Alma" NEVER Happened Either (Earliest Major Hurricane to impact the continental U.S., 2nd Earliest Hurricane on record to impact the continental U.S.)

Best track database has Alma striking Florida as a borderline Cat 1-2, not a major. It has Alma as a Cat 3 as it passed west of the Florida Peninsula. That said, this is most likely a phantom storm.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1966/ALMA/track.dat


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[psyclone]

It's noteworthy that we need to go back decades to find an "Alma"...meanwhile we can find phantom storms by the bucket load every year at this time...without fail.

[ronjon]

What do you mean by "Alma was most likely phantom storm"?

Think he was referring to the current GFS predictions of a storm in 10 days.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the German model ICON is picking up on a broad low at 168 hours in the Western Caribbean:

[wxman57]

What do you mean by "Alma was most likely phantom storm"?

Think he was referring to the current GFS predictions of a storm in 10 days.

Correct.

[xironman]

I think it is kind of nice that they kept the GFS's propensity for spring phantom storms in the new model. Gives everyone something to talk about.

[TheStormExpert]

So are we just going to completely ignore the GFS and new-GFS showing tropical development in the SW Caribbean even with the MJO coming out of phase 8 going into phases 1 and 2 which is quite favorable for this region?

[stormlover2013]

Navy, Icon model also showing little bit of something, I don't think we should ignore it

[TheStormExpert]

Navy, Icon model also showing little bit of something, I don't think we should ignore it

I agree, I think the GFS is just too quick maybe but who knows.

[stormlover2013]

now if nothing verifies then we can just make fun of the GFS but hard to ignore

[psyclone]

So are we just going to completely ignore the GFS and new-GFS showing tropical development in the SW Caribbean even with the MJO coming out of phase 8 going into phases 1 and 2 which is quite favorable for this region?

I wouldn't ignore it but it helps to maintain a healthy perspective. It's the weather equivalent of not quitting your job before the lotto numbers are drawn. It looks like the pattern is destined to usher in the florida rainy season regardless of development so that on its own is watch worthy IMO..

[Dean4Storms]

ECM EPS was also showing 500mb lower pressures in the western Carib. around the 20th.

[LarryWx]

There have been only 4 TCs on record to form in the W Caribbean since 1851 during 5/11-20 (so about one every 40 years...so not even close to impossible though rare) as per this map with 2 of the 4 hitting FL:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/may_11_20.png

One of the 4 was Alma of 1970, which became a cat 1 H in the W Caribbean and later hit FL but only as a TD:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The other FL hit was storm 1 of 1916, which hit FL as only a minimal TS:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Another of the 4 was TS #1 of 1933, which never got close to the US:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

The 4th was TS #2 of 1887, which affected Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas, but which missed the US:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

So, in summary, 1970, 1933, 1916, and 1887 with 1970 hitting FL as a TD and 1916 hitting FL as a minimal TS. This info tells me not to bet the farm against a W Caribbean genesis this mid May, but to bet a whole lot on there not being a H hit on the US from a potential mid May genesis. It is too early in the season to think of that as a reasonable possibility per this climo going back to 1851.

[StruThiO]

Nice post/analysis, Larry. I didn't know May systems in that area were so common (as common as 40 years can be )

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/994607920452161536

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Nice post/analysis, Larry. I didn't know May systems in that area were so common (as common as 40 years can be )

Thanks. Well, that one every 40 years is for only mid-May systems in the area as there were also 4 there (1 every 40 years again) during late May. I'm only analyzing mid-May since that's the period for potential genesis per models.

I don't think of one every 40 years as too low to consider that a genesis MAY actually happen with every GFS/FV3 run developing it there. However, I also wouldn't bet on it happening as the GFS in recent years has had cases where run after run for many days in a row had a W Caribbean genesis and nothing ended up forming. Also, I believe that the GFS/FV3 is way too strong even if there were to be a genesis. Run after run has had a cat 2 H, but there has been only 1 H form from a genesis there in mid May since 1851 and that was only a cat 1 for only 12 hours while still in the W Caribbean with a max of 80 mph!

[SFLcane]

12z GFS with Wilma part 2 in May..

[OuterBanker]

Hmm, west coast Fl then coast huger to NC, July 4 maybe, better chance Labor Day. Memorial Day probably not.
Fantasy, but interesting.
BTW, better not happen, heading to a week in the Pa mountains at same time.
Don't want to be here Memorial day week.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html

[AutoPenalti]

GFS telling to me to not watch the Han Solo movie on the 25th and also to not schedule any Memorial Day plans.

Good riddance.

[floridasun78]

their air show in miami doing long weekend we no wind or rain here