Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[Gustywind]

043
AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Sun Aug 26 2018

...DISCUSSION...
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stronger tropical wave will approach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles onTuesday, bringing fresh easterly winds and sea heights about 8
feet. The wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early on Wed, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the Lesser Antilles.

[Cpv17]

Despite models backing off some on development (for now), this wave needs close watching if it makes it into the Gulf or Bahamas given the untapped energy that awaits with the high SSTs.

But what about shear? That would prevent it from developing

[SoupBone]

Despite models backing off some on development (for now), this wave needs close watching if it makes it into the Gulf or Bahamas given the untapped energy that awaits with the high SSTs.

But what about shear? That would prevent it from developing

Shear is actually favorable in the Caribbean, not in front of it right now though.

[AJC3]

Despite models backing off some on development (for now), this wave needs close watching if it makes it into the Gulf or Bahamas given the untapped energy that awaits with the high SSTs.

But what about shear? That would prevent it from developing

Shear is actually favorable in the Caribbean, not in front of it right now though.

Yikes. That image you posted shows the exact opposite. Shear is downright prohibitive over just about the entirety of the Caribbean, with the exception of the northern rim, and across the Greater Antilles.

[SoupBone]

But what about shear? That would prevent it from developing

Shear is actually favorable in the Caribbean, not in front of it right now though.

Yikes. That image you posted shows the exact opposite. Shear is downright prohibitive over just about the entirety of the Caribbean, with the exception of the northern rim, and across the Greater Antilles.

I guess I should clarify, not the Caribbean Sea, the northern islands. My brain is always pre-set to the land masses, not the water feature. I'm looking at that 5-10 knot area covering Cuba, Puerto Rico, DR, and Haiti. Doh!

[InRRwetrust]

Regardless of conditions ahead then at least theirs "some" flaring energy off the guinea coast along & just south under the 10' latitude west out to 30' longtitude, if anything to go by in the last 7hrs anyway?
Something slightly more interesting to look at in the central atlantic for a change?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave that was tracked across the central Atlantic
during the past few days appears to have become more defined at
the surface and low-levels near 60W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The
700 mb model wind and streamline fields support a tropical wave
in this general area. Scatterometer data from last night
highlighted some evidence of a northeast to southeast shift in
wind direction across the wave axis. Scattered showers are within
60 nm east of the wave axis from 14N to 20N.

[jasons2k]

Caught this tidbit in the NWS Houston's overnight dicussion:

The extended guidance has been indicating a weakness sliding across
the southern Gulf with radically different levels of organization
Sunday through Wednesday next week. Keep in mind that often the
extended guidance waffles around spurious solutions - is it
possible yes is it something to get worried about not yet - but
aware of yes.

[SoupBone]

Caught this tidbit in the NWS Houston's overnight dicussion:

The extended guidance has been indicating a weakness sliding across
the southern Gulf with radically different levels of organization
Sunday through Wednesday next week. Keep in mind that often the
extended guidance waffles around spurious solutions - is it
possible yes is it something to get worried about not yet - but
aware of yes.

Interesting that it's at least being mentioned, though I guess they don't seem too concerned yet. Though, we've historically had some sneakers with systems just like this.

[jasons2k]

Caught this tidbit in the NWS Houston's overnight dicussion:

The extended guidance has been indicating a weakness sliding across
the southern Gulf with radically different levels of organization
Sunday through Wednesday next week. Keep in mind that often the
extended guidance waffles around spurious solutions - is it
possible yes is it something to get worried about not yet - but
aware of yes.

Interesting that it's at least being mentioned, though I guess they don't seem too concerned yet. Though, we've historically had some sneakers with systems just like this.

Katrina was an open wave that fell apart & was given virtually zero chance of development...until she reached the Bahamas.

[stormlover2013]

Loves bugs in southeast texas, Rita, Ike, Harvey all had love bugs 2-3 befoe storms hit.....I know its weird but never say never

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is a little bit more defined in Texas coast.

[gatorcane]

looks to develop this as it landfalls whereas previous runs didn’t have much. Let’s hope it is not a trend. The area looks to be some Harvey-impacted areas.

[SoupBone]

:uarrow: looks to develop this as it landfalls whereas previous runs didn’t have much. Let’s hope it is not a trend. The area looks to be some Harvey-impacted areas.

That path is right near the same landfall area as Harvey made, the Corpus Christi general area.

[stormlover2013]

yep just little north of corpus, still over a week away should be interesting. Rita type track

[wxGuy]

5th day in a row showing gulf coaster

[wxGuy]

With how the el nino is setting up this year, I'm using some analog years 04*05* an such, and how the gulf is doing lately, I'm almost positive the fuel is there and that we will see a cane in the Gulf in September

[floridasun78]

what wave you talking about one by near 30w or very very weak wave with none storm 45 w if you talking about one 45 w i dont see any thing very dry up wave i don't see any thing forming with this unless blow up when go north of Lesser Antilles not happen yet

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: looks to develop this as it landfalls whereas previous runs didn’t have much. Let’s hope it is not a trend. The area looks to be some Harvey-impacted areas.

Probably about 50-75 miles further north of where Harvey made landfall on this run of the Euro. Port O’Connor/Matagorda area.

[jasons2k]

Definitely more defined than previous runs. The NW Gulf has a history of storms intensifying near landfall on the Texas coast...Claudette, Humberto, and Harvey come to mind.