2019 EPAC season

[NotSparta]

Yeah I stand corrected, wasn't reading the increments correctly. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it looks like it starts falling late May/early June and stays below normal through June 20. That being said (I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm cherry picking data here lol), I think on the annual hurricane season indicators thread it was proven that while it's a good tool to have, the instability chart can be pretty misleading in some ways.

But I still think the lack of activity is tied directly to the strong suppressive state of the MJO. So far current MJO activity is behaving pretty similar to June 2016's MJO activity:
https://i.imgur.com/vBVjhGJ.png
In late June and July 2016 the MJO went strong into phase 1 which supports EPAC activity and that's what kicked off the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.

So in regards to this season, the Euro is adamant in weakening the MJO while the GFS and CFS continue to show the MJO going into the Pacific. So if the Euro solution verifies we probably have to wait till July to see a real storm and of course if the NCEP models verify then we'll likely see a system before the end of June.

Yeah the chart is terrible for the Atlantic but I'm not 100% sure about the EPAC.

Also, the signal being stronger despite similar MJO is a sign that the base state is less favorable. Would make sense since it looks like activity will be weighted more west

The suppressed phases in June 2016 and 2019 based on RMM are pretty identical if you compare. At the time being I would say this dead state of the EPAC is due intraseasonal variability and an active MJO vs the base state.
I mean 2016 was very active with a similar +PDO and +PMM configuration AND an emerging La Nina. There's still a very good chance that 2019 will be active.

Yes, if the instability is much lower this yr, while MJO is similar, wouldn't that argue a less favorable base state?

Anyway, yeah. Active season there still looks rather likely

[Kingarabian]

Yeah the chart is terrible for the Atlantic but I'm not 100% sure about the EPAC.

Also, the signal being stronger despite similar MJO is a sign that the base state is less favorable. Would make sense since it looks like activity will be weighted more west

The suppressed phases in June 2016 and 2019 based on RMM are pretty identical if you compare. At the time being I would say this dead state of the EPAC is due intraseasonal variability and an active MJO vs the base state.
I mean 2016 was very active with a similar +PDO and +PMM configuration AND an emerging La Nina. There's still a very good chance that 2019 will be active.

Yes, if the instability is much lower this yr, while MJO is similar, wouldn't that argue a less favorable base state?

Anyway, yeah. Active season there still looks rather likely

If you want to look at it that way and consider the instability chart solely, then yes it would appear the base state is less favorable. But I consider the base state to be compromised of SST configurations that are based on ENSO/PDO/PMM, air motion, and shear.

[NotSparta]

The suppressed phases in June 2016 and 2019 based on RMM are pretty identical if you compare. At the time being I would say this dead state of the EPAC is due intraseasonal variability and an active MJO vs the base state.
I mean 2016 was very active with a similar +PDO and +PMM configuration AND an emerging La Nina. There's still a very good chance that 2019 will be active.

Yes, if the instability is much lower this yr, while MJO is similar, wouldn't that argue a less favorable base state?

Anyway, yeah. Active season there still looks rather likely

If you want to look at it that way and consider the instability chart solely, then yes it would appear the base state is less favorable. But I consider the base state to be compromised of SST configurations that are based on ENSO/PDO/PMM, air motion, and shear.

That was worded badly. I meant less favorable base state as in more stable base state. Otherwise, it looks favorable

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah I stand corrected, wasn't reading the increments correctly. If I'm reading the chart correctly, it looks like it starts falling late May/early June and stays below normal through June 20. That being said (I'm sorry if it sounds like I'm cherry picking data here lol), I think on the annual hurricane season indicators thread it was proven that while it's a good tool to have, the instability chart can be pretty misleading in some ways.

But I still think the lack of activity is tied directly to the strong suppressive state of the MJO. So far current MJO activity is behaving pretty similar to June 2016's MJO activity:
https://i.imgur.com/vBVjhGJ.png
In late June and July 2016 the MJO went strong into phase 1 which supports EPAC activity and that's what kicked off the 2016 Pacific hurricane season.

So in regards to this season, the Euro is adamant in weakening the MJO while the GFS and CFS continue to show the MJO going into the Pacific. So if the Euro solution verifies we probably have to wait till July to see a real storm and of course if the NCEP models verify then we'll likely see a system before the end of June.

Yeah the chart is terrible for the Atlantic but I'm not 100% sure about the EPAC.

Also, the signal being stronger despite similar MJO is a sign that the base state is less favorable. Would make sense since it looks like activity will be weighted more west

The suppressed phases in June 2016 and 2019 based on RMM are pretty identical if you compare. At the time being I would say this dead state of the EPAC is due intraseasonal variability and an active MJO vs the base state.
I mean 2016 was very active with a similar +PDO and +PMM configuration AND an emerging La Nina. There's still a very good chance that 2019 will be active.

Basically this. Intraseasonal variability is responsible for most lulls in this basin, and this time it happens to occur in June while last year it occurred in July.

I will say the CCKW in a season with net more favorable conditions than this one could have spawned something in spite of the suppressed phase at least in theory but I guess it isn't much of a surprise given the time of year.

[NDG]

What has to be looked also is the SSTs off of Baja to the S of of it are much cooler, an area that we usually see early activity in the EPAC in years that the area is warmer than average.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1140408001976659968




 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1140408224094363649

[HurricaneEnzo]

Obviously the switch could still flip on in the near future but if this keeps up it might not bode well for an inactive Atlantic if you buy into the whole inactive EPAC means active Atlantic and vice versa hype. I dont necessarily buy into it but will be interesting to see how things play out.

[Kingarabian]

Models indicating that early next week well see the first named storm of the season.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro bringing in the timeframe and looks to be our first long tracker of the season:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1140937675567845376




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1140953563201507330

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has Longtracker!! Look where the remnants end up. Kingarabian

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has Longtracker!! Look where the remnants end up. Kingarabian

[url]https://i.imgur.com/kdgd2Np.png[url]

Yes, this system will give us a taste on how favorable conditions in the CPAC will be around the seasons peak.

In regards to this system, this a strong signal being picked up by the models and their ensembles that this will be the first storm of the season.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has Longtracker!! Look where the remnants end up. Kingarabian

[url]https://i.imgur.com/kdgd2Np.png[url]

Yes, this system will give us a taste on how favorable conditions in the CPAC will be around the seasons peak.

In regards to this system, this a strong signal being picked up by the models and their ensembles that this will be the first storm of the season.

I can see NHC begin to mention it tonight or on Wednesday.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS has a long lived system but one that isn't particularly strong.

12z ECMWF is weaker.

Strong chance at Alvin though I'm unsure at how strong it'll be.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has Longtracker!! Look where the remnants end up. Kingarabian

[url]https://i.imgur.com/kdgd2Np.png[url]

Yes, this system will give us a taste on how favorable conditions in the CPAC will be around the seasons peak.

In regards to this system, this a strong signal being picked up by the models and their ensembles that this will be the first storm of the season.

I can see NHC begin to mention it tonight or on Wednesday.

Probable. They could wait for a few more model runs before circling it. The Euro and GFS have had a bunch of ghost storms since May.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS has a long lived system but one that isn't particularly strong.

12z ECMWF is weaker.

Strong chance at Alvin though I'm unsure at how strong it'll be.

The intensities of early season long trackers are typically a crap shoot. You can easily get a major hurricane or a system that struggles to keep itself together.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS is further east than before.

0z ECMWF barely has anything.

[Kingarabian]

6z GFS is further east than before.

0z ECMWF barely has anything.

12z GFS barely shows any development in the medium range now, while the 12z Euro has 3 TC's to close off June:

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for the development
of this system while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Nancy Smar]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for the development
of this system while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila