Continuing GOM Watch

[GCANE]

Convection firing between MS Delta and Mobile Bay.
Light surface winds and dropping shear.

[facemane]

Convection firing between MS Delta and Mobile Bay.
Light surface winds and dropping shear.

Yep, it looks like the MS/ALA coast is in for a few days of heavy rain.

[GCANE]

The 700mb vort over the GA / SC Border looks to be dropping a trough into the area where the convection is firing off.

[GCANE]

[NDG]

The persistent mid and surface trough along the northern gulf has been very reluctant to leave, is why I think the Euro has the right idea that the energy coming out of the Caribbean will take a right hard turn from the southern GOM into the central gulf coast.
But do we need to have two different threads about the same potential system?

[GCANE]

Lots of moisture convergence along the coast.
North of the convection, winds out of the north with mid-level dry air but high low-level lapse rates.
South of the convection, winds out of the south over a broad area bringing with it unstable / humid air.

[GCANE]

The persistent mid and surface trough along the northern gulf has been very reluctant to leave, is why I think the Euro has the right idea that the energy coming out of the Caribbean will take a right hard turn from the southern GOM into the central gulf coast.
But do we need to have two different threads about the same potential system?

OK, since the title seems to focus on the possible development end of week, I'll change it.
I want to keep this thread open for anything that may popup this week.
New title:
"Continuing N GOM Watch"

[SoupBone]

The persistent mid and surface trough along the northern gulf has been very reluctant to leave, is why I think the Euro has the right idea that the energy coming out of the Caribbean will take a right hard turn from the southern GOM into the central gulf coast.
But do we need to have two different threads about the same potential system?

I don't understand, is this thread about the long running one "Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean"?

[GCANE]

The persistent mid and surface trough along the northern gulf has been very reluctant to leave, is why I think the Euro has the right idea that the energy coming out of the Caribbean will take a right hard turn from the southern GOM into the central gulf coast.
But do we need to have two different threads about the same potential system?

I don't understand, is this thread about the long running one "Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean"?

Right now we are watching the north GOM coast.
Convection keeps popping up.
I have mentioned that models are showing something end of week.
I really didn't allude it to the wave in the Carib.

[tropicwatch]

This is almost the same setup as last week that led to the low south of Panama City. Round two, yuck. About to be tired of all the rain. I have had 5.29" of rain today and more to come.

[wxman57]

Quite high surface pressure across the NE Gulf (1019-1020mb). Shear remains strong. Development chances remain low. Still looking for some rain in Houston.

[psyclone]

Thankfully the rain and onshore flow has shifted north of the waterlogged areas of west central Florida. Water temps here have taken a big hit on the rain and cloudy conditions and now reside on the low side of normal but should rebound quickly if a more normal August pattern can take hold..

[GCANE]

Another 850mb breakoff vort

[GCANE]

Looks good at 700mb

[GCANE]

Dry slot to the north starting to fill in with convection.
Expect this to take a chunk out of the shear and moisten the mid levels.
Seeing good UL divergence.

[NDG]

Another 850mb breakoff vort

https://i.imgur.com/cEEyxEv.png

The Euro does a good job in picking up on this latest vorticity, tries to develop it before moving inland over the MS gulf coast tomorrow night.
I think the persistent troughiness along the northern gulf is what may help something develop as the energy from the Caribbean system comes up this way.

[Aric Dunn]

Seeing low level rotation to the individual cells. Broad circ is developing. Though it's obvious close to the coast and wont have much time unless the ridge orientation is different as it builds in. Might get some sw motion. Before heading inland

[Stormcenter]

Sure looks like there is some twisting going south
of the Ms. Gulf coast....not the Chubby Checker kind.

[Agua]

Winds have switched to the SSE in Biloxi since about 1:30.

[GCANE]

High lapse rates and CAPE in the dry-slot air. Convection should continue to increase there.