Tropical Wave in the East-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 92L)

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I definitely agree with this. I've been thinking this *could* be the one that develops early enough to take full advantage of the insane OHC and SSTs in the Western Caribbean, assuming shear relaxes and dry air stays out of the way

If Gamma fails to become much which may be more likely looking at shear maps then this COULD become stronger than currently anticipated.

Yeah that's another reason why I'm really watching this one. As aspen pointed out earlier, Gamma is a rather broad system so it may take a bit to really get going, and it already doesn't have a lot of time before interaction with land, shear and, dry air. We'll see how it all plays out but for now I'm on the side that this becomes stronger than Gamma

Well there’s currently around 50-70kts. of shear awaiting Gamma in the Gulf and that certainly will put a damper on it. Someone said if Gamma fails to strengthen into much that this area would be stronger.

[ElectricStorm]

If Gamma fails to become much which may be more likely looking at shear maps then this COULD become stronger than currently anticipated.

Yeah that's another reason why I'm really watching this one. As aspen pointed out earlier, Gamma is a rather broad system so it may take a bit to really get going, and it already doesn't have a lot of time before interaction with land, shear and, dry air. We'll see how it all plays out but for now I'm on the side that this becomes stronger than Gamma

Well there’s currently around 50-70kts. of shear awaiting Gamma in the Gulf and that certainly will put a damper on it. Someone said if Gamma fails to strengthen into much that this area would be stronger.

There's also quite a bit of shear affecting this one for now. First thing we need to watch for is whether or not that shear let's up, if so, I think it can get pretty strong, but if it doesn't track into the lower shear then forget about it

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah that's another reason why I'm really watching this one. As aspen pointed out earlier, Gamma is a rather broad system so it may take a bit to really get going, and it already doesn't have a lot of time before interaction with land, shear and, dry air. We'll see how it all plays out but for now I'm on the side that this becomes stronger than Gamma

Well there’s currently around 50-70kts. of shear awaiting Gamma in the Gulf and that certainly will put a damper on it. Someone said if Gamma fails to strengthen into much that this area would be stronger.

There's also quite a bit of shear affecting this one for now. First thing we need to watch for is whether or not that shear let's up, if so, I think it can get pretty strong, but if it doesn't track into the lower shear then forget about it

Well shear is currently decreasing in the area going off the shear tendency map.

[ElectricStorm]

This should be designated 92L pretty soon I would think. The 92L's have been interesting this year, first Isaias, then Paulette... Pretty insane that she is still out there after we have made a complete rotation of invest numbers lol

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has a mid grade tropical storm hitting Jamaica at 72hrs

Edit: also does a fujiwara with Gamma, either the GFS is on to something or is on drugs but its probably the second one

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a low of some kind 50 to 75 miles north of Aruba

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the
ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and portions of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then
into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the
ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and portions of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then
into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Time for an invest...

[aspen]

Gamma has made me even more concerned about “future Delta”, because it looks like it’s trying to bomb out into a pinhole eye major. It’s giving me Wilma vibes — very compact core (recon has found a far tighter pressure gradient), a -85C to -90C CDO, and nearly the same position and timing. If Gamma had more time, it would’ve easily become a major...and it’s possible Delta will have more time within just as favorable conditions.

If Gamma is trying to bomb out with only 24-30 total hours over water, what could Delta do with potentially up to several days?

[stormchazer]

A tropical wave is producing widespread cloudiness, showers, and
thunderstorms over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, with
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds affecting portions of the
ABC Islands, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, and portions of the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then
into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Time for an invest...

No sign of a developing low yet, otherwise I believe the area may have already been tagged. Today might well be the day.

[ElectricStorm]

Gamma has made me even more concerned about “future Delta”, because it looks like it’s trying to bomb out into a pinhole eye major. It’s giving me Wilma vibes — very compact core (recon has found a far tighter pressure gradient), a -85C to -90C CDO, and nearly the same position and timing. If Gamma had more time, it would’ve easily become a major...and it’s possible Delta will have more time within just as favorable conditions.

If Gamma is trying to bomb out with only 24-30 total hours over water, what could Delta do with potentially up to several days?

I'm with you here. This one could end up being a big deal...

[Emmett_Brown]

Gamma has made me even more concerned about “future Delta”, because it looks like it’s trying to bomb out into a pinhole eye major. It’s giving me Wilma vibes — very compact core (recon has found a far tighter pressure gradient), a -85C to -90C CDO, and nearly the same position and timing. If Gamma had more time, it would’ve easily become a major...and it’s possible Delta will have more time within just as favorable conditions.

If Gamma is trying to bomb out with only 24-30 total hours over water, what could Delta do with potentially up to several days?

Yes, and add that to the fact that many models are still playing serious catch up with Gamma shows that they are ignoring the massive potential that we clearly see in the NW Caribbean. The only big negative factor for this wave would be if Gamma manages to stay big and more organized, then there wont be room for both. So a fuzzy future until we see what Gamma does

[cycloneye]

Invest 92L is up