Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[aspen]

It’s just crazy that this could end up being an AEW-based Caribbean Cruiser...in NOVEMBER. A genesis and track similar to the CMC, combined with the intensity of the GFS, could be the season’s 5th official major and potentially the highest ACE producer.

This system has a chance to get the Atlantic to the 152.5 hyperactive ACE threshold.

We’re already at 132.6 ACE. A couple more units from Zeta plus 15-20 from Eta (or Theta, if something else grabs the former) will get 2020 close to or slightly above that threshold.

[Nuno]

ICON develops a strengthening Eta, heads due West into CA.

Another model intensifying potential Eta. Run ends at 180 off CA not into. Para also went into CA but but moved offshore and redeveloped.

That run ends with 2 TCs in the Caribbean, and another one approaching the LA. Seems um...unlikely.

People said the same thing about Zeta

[weeniepatrol]

It’s just crazy that this could end up being an AEW-based Caribbean Cruiser...in NOVEMBER. A genesis and track similar to the CMC, combined with the intensity of the GFS, could be the season’s 5th official major and potentially the highest ACE producer.

This system has a chance to get the Atlantic to the 152.5 hyperactive ACE threshold.

We’re already at 132.6 ACE. A couple more units from Zeta plus 15-20 from Eta (or Theta, if something else grabs the former) will get 2020 close to or slightly above that threshold.

Per CSU we're actually higher at 137.6 ACE. Hyperactivity seems quite plausible, despite all the handwringing earlier in the year about low ACE

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS has a track very similar to the 1932 Cuba hurricane. Image if this becomes a Cat 5 as well.

Gets tugged NE quickly because it develops another tc near the Bahamas.

I think it’s safe to say that the GFS has a very east bias with Western Caribbean storms in the long-range

[SFLcane]

Oh Canada

https://i.postimg.cc/L4yfm1PW/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh120-240.gif

CMC gulf-bound?

Again...?

Not likely..there’s bound to be a trof to recurve this. Not many realize how rare such event would be but it’s possible we could see a conus impact.

[underthwx]

It’s just crazy that this could end up being an AEW-based Caribbean Cruiser...in NOVEMBER. A genesis and track similar to the CMC, combined with the intensity of the GFS, could be the season’s 5th official major and potentially the highest ACE producer.

Yes, if this does indeed evolve into a named system, in November, naturally begs the question, how many more systems are there on the horizon this season?.....Wow!

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS:

[cp79]

Trough will catch this one. They’re due to start coming in this weekend. Finally about to get to normal pattern which should kick this right.

[SFLcane]

12Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/lGUiXe3.png

that’s why we have to watch this one.

[Spacecoast]

12Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/lGUiXe3.png

It's amazing that every one of those members end up missing the main Fl Peninsula on that GFS run
One member does hit Key West, however.

[SFLcane]

This could be a big one!

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1320803959783784449

[AutoPenalti]

Right, so to the ones that said October-November weren't going to be quite as active...


Yikes.

[SFLcane]

[cp79]

Even the Euro is hinting at something, and they NEVER form a system until it actually forms. So yes, I’m buying that something is going to organize.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/lGUiXe3.png

Deja vu back to pre-Zeta.

[gatorcane]

GFS P long-range:

[SFLcane]

Not sure what will come of this but for now the only deterministic model that brings this past 80w down there is the cmc model. Last 1-2 days implying more of a Lenny type track. GEFS and Euro Ensembles paint a different story though

[aspen]

GFS P long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/yYwWznwY/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh156-360.gif

Wow, a major safely passing between Cuba and Hispaniola while intensifying into a Cat4. That’s a very weird and very special run.

And then it keeps on intensifying into the 930s while north of the GAs lol.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS P long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/yYwWznwY/gfsp-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh156-360.gif

Wow, a major safely passing between Cuba and Hispaniola while intensifying into a Cat4. That’s a very weird and very special run.

And then it keeps on intensifying into the 930s while north of the GAs lol.

That was not a safe passage between Cuba and Haiti. It wobbled through from my view. But just like the GFS, the GFS-P is likely too Far East.

[blp]

Let's all not forget pre Zeta GFS and Para for run after run where showing Zeta going through the Bahamas heading NE and Zeta ends up heading for Gulf coast. The GFS tends to overdevelop these systems as well as the weakness in the ridge. Considering its size I don't think it will spin up that quickly. I agree cyclogensis signal is very strong at the moment.