2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Iceresistance]

CPC now has a new and more clear graphic for NAO. Shell Mound, I added the new links to the first post list.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

I really like it already! It's MUCH clearer than previously.

[Shell Mound]

Latest seasonal forecast from ECMWF Seas 5 is out and it shows the potential for a slightly above average season.

https://i.imgur.com/TekTnTs.png

https://i.imgur.com/DSve0k3.png

https://i.imgur.com/AR9eAI0.png

The ECMWF has also switched from showing a +AMM for June to showing a -AMM for June.

Getting hyperactive seasons seems to have become more difficult over the past decade. Since 2010 only two years—2017 and 2020—have been hyperactive, 2020 only barely so. Most years since 2010 have seen few intense long-trackers vs. the period of 1995–2010. (Between 1995 and 2010 no fewer than eight hyperactive seasons occurred.) Even the recent stretch of above-average seasons has been largely characterised by slightly-above-average activity at best, 2017 and 2020 excepted. (2020, unlike 2017, also featured a dearth of intense long-trackers, aside from the occurrence of Teddy.) Given current indicators I do not expect the ongoing trend to change during ASO of 2022. I also surmise that the decline in the frequency of hyperactive seasons since 2010 also confirms the end of the +AMO.

[AlphaToOmega]

Latest seasonal forecast from ECMWF Seas 5 is out and it shows the potential for a slightly above average season.

https://i.imgur.com/TekTnTs.png

https://i.imgur.com/DSve0k3.png

https://i.imgur.com/AR9eAI0.png

The ECMWF has also switched from showing a +AMM for June to showing a -AMM for June.

Getting hyperactive seasons seems to have become more difficult over the past decade. Since 2010 only two years—2017 and 2020—have been hyperactive, 2020 only barely so. Most years since 2010 have seen few intense long-trackers vs. the period of 1995–2010. (Between 1995 and 2010 no fewer than eight hyperactive seasons occurred.) Even the recent stretch of above-average seasons has been largely characterised by slightly-above-average activity at best, 2017 and 2020 excepted. (2020, unlike 2017, also featured a dearth of intense long-trackers, aside from the occurrence of Teddy.) Given current indicators I do not expect the ongoing trend to change during ASO of 2022. I also surmise that the decline in the frequency of hyperactive seasons since 2010 also confirms the end of the +AMO.

If the AMM ends up being negative for ASO (which we still do not know for sure) and if the ENSO ends up being negative for ASO (which we also do not know for sure), we could have a season like 2000. 2000 was the last season to feature a -AMM and a -ENSO during ASO.

[Yellow Evan]

Latest seasonal forecast from ECMWF Seas 5 is out and it shows the potential for a slightly above average season.

https://i.imgur.com/TekTnTs.png

https://i.imgur.com/DSve0k3.png

https://i.imgur.com/AR9eAI0.png

The ECMWF has also switched from showing a +AMM for June to showing a -AMM for June.

Getting hyperactive seasons seems to have become more difficult over the past decade. Since 2010 only two years—2017 and 2020—have been hyperactive, 2020 only barely so. Most years since 2010 have seen few intense long-trackers vs. the period of 1995–2010. (Between 1995 and 2010 no fewer than eight hyperactive seasons occurred.) Even the recent stretch of above-average seasons has been largely characterised by slightly-above-average activity at best, 2017 and 2020 excepted. (2020, unlike 2017, also featured a dearth of intense long-trackers, aside from the occurrence of Teddy.) Given current indicators I do not expect the ongoing trend to change during ASO of 2022. I also surmise that the decline in the frequency of hyperactive seasons since 2010 also confirms the end of the +AMO.

The forces that hold up +AMO are a bit different than pre-2013 (more Africa dependent with weaker AMOC and less -NAO) but outside of late 2013 and late spring in 2015, 2018, and 2019, we haven’t had any sustained -AMO configuration (where the Canary Current is explicitly cold). If there was a true -AMO, most seasons would be at or below average, with virtually no hyperactive years.

[AlphaToOmega]

We know a few things already:

1. The AMO will be positive by ASO
2. The PDO will be negative by ASO

The AMO has been consistently positive since February 2019 and positive during ASO since 1997. There are also enough climate model guidance and historical trends to call a negative PDO this season. The PDO is important because a -PDO would be able to neutralize some of the effects of a +ENSO and vice-versa.

Here is what we do not know for sure:

1. AMM by ASO? (leaning positive)
2. ENSO by ASO? (leaning negative)
3. Dominant MJO phase by ASO? (leaning Phase III)
4. Atlantic Niño by ASO?
5. NAO by ASO?
6. MJO amplitude?

Model guidance typically leans towards a -AMM for ASO this time of year, but recent trends point to a +AMM during ASO this season; however, during this +AMO period, the seasons of 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018 all had -AMM during ASO; so while a -AMM for ASO is unlikely this year, it is still possible, which is why it cannot be definitively called. Per usual, ENSO guidance during this time of year is messy, but atmospheric patterns (i.e. easterly winds and strong MJO over Indian Ocean) favor -ENSO conditions by ASO; however, last-minute flips may happen à la 2017, which is why it also cannot be called. Also per usual, the dominant MJO phase for ASO is not certain; generally speaking, Phases I, II, and III favor a quantity-over-quality season (higher storm count, lower ACE per storm); Phases IV and V favor a quality-over-quantity season (lower storm count, higher ACE per storm); Phases VI, VII, and VIII favor an inactive season; because of the forecast -ENSO and the model guidance, Phase III seems likely, but it is not certain.

The Atlantic Niño would be important for ITCZ latitude. Should the Atlantic Niño be strongly positive, the ITCZ would be suppressed to the south, preventing Caribbean development; right now, the IMME models show a strong Atlantic Niño for ASO, but the NMME models show an Atlantic Niña for ASO, meaning there is no clear consensus as of now. Being this far from ASO, it is impossible to say whether or not the NAO would be positive or negative this season, something that would be critical for landfall risks. Speaking of things that are impossible to say, it is impossible to say what the MJO amplitude would be this season; even if the base state is ripe for hyperactivity (e.g. 2021), a bad MJO phase could inhibit a season from reaching hyperactivity; a high-amplitude MJO would intensify the lulls of activity, decreasing the possible windows of opportunity for development; low-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2020) reinforce base states; high-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2021) counteract base states; nobody can say what the MJO amplitude would be.

A below-average season is, while unlikely, certainly still possible right now. An example of a below-average season with +AMO and -PDO is 2006. An average season (e.g. 2000 and 2007) is possible. An above-average season (e.g. 2008 and 2012) is possible. A hyperactive season (e.g. 2020) is possible.

[Category5Kaiju]

We know a few things already:

1. The AMO will be positive by ASO
2. The PDO will be negative by ASO

The AMO has been consistently positive since February 2019 and positive during ASO since 1997. There are also enough climate model guidance and historical trends to call a negative PDO this season. The PDO is important because a -PDO would be able to neutralize some of the effects of a +ENSO and vice-versa.

Here is what we do not know for sure:

1. AMM by ASO? (leaning positive)
2. ENSO by ASO? (leaning negative)
3. Dominant MJO phase by ASO? (leaning Phase III)
4. Atlantic Niño by ASO?
5. NAO by ASO?
6. MJO amplitude?

Model guidance typically leans towards a -AMM for ASO this time of year, but recent trends point to a +AMM during ASO this season; however, during this +AMO period, the seasons of 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018 all had -AMM during ASO; so while a -AMM for ASO is unlikely this year, it is still possible, which is why it cannot be definitively called. Per usual, ENSO guidance during this time of year is messy, but atmospheric patterns (i.e. easterly winds and strong MJO over Indian Ocean) favor -ENSO conditions by ASO; however, last-minute flips may happen à la 2017, which is why it also cannot be called. Also per usual, the dominant MJO phase for ASO is not certain; generally speaking, Phases I, II, and III favor a quantity-over-quality season (higher storm count, lower ACE per storm); Phases IV and V favor a quality-over-quantity season (lower storm count, higher ACE per storm); Phases VI, VII, and VIII favor an inactive season; because of the forecast -ENSO and the model guidance, Phase III seems likely, but it is not certain.

The Atlantic Niño would be important for ITCZ latitude. Should the Atlantic Niño be strongly positive, the ITCZ would be suppressed to the south, preventing Caribbean development; right now, the IMME models show a strong Atlantic Niño for ASO, but the NMME models show an Atlantic Niña for ASO, meaning there is no clear consensus as of now. Being this far from ASO, it is impossible to say whether or not the NAO would be positive or negative this season, something that would be critical for landfall risks. Speaking of things that are impossible to say, it is impossible to say what the MJO amplitude would be this season; even if the base state is ripe for hyperactivity (e.g. 2021), a bad MJO phase could inhibit a season from reaching hyperactivity; a high-amplitude MJO would intensify the lulls of activity, decreasing the possible windows of opportunity for development; low-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2020) reinforce base states; high-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2021) counteract base states; nobody can say what the MJO amplitude would be.

A below-average season is, while unlikely, certainly still possible right now. An example of a below-average season with +AMO and -PDO is 2006. An average season (e.g. 2000 and 2007) is possible. An above-average season (e.g. 2008 and 2012) is possible. A hyperactive season (e.g. 2020) is possible.

Well just keep in mind that 2006 was below average mainly due to an El Nino

[SFLcane]

Latest seasonal forecast from ECMWF Seas 5 is out and it shows the potential for a slightly above average season.

https://i.imgur.com/TekTnTs.png

https://i.imgur.com/DSve0k3.png

https://i.imgur.com/AR9eAI0.png

The ECMWF has also switched from showing a +AMM for June to showing a -AMM for June.

The -AMM is cooler in the Atlantic.

[AlphaToOmega]

We know a few things already:

1. The AMO will be positive by ASO
2. The PDO will be negative by ASO

The AMO has been consistently positive since February 2019 and positive during ASO since 1997. There are also enough climate model guidance and historical trends to call a negative PDO this season. The PDO is important because a -PDO would be able to neutralize some of the effects of a +ENSO and vice-versa.

Here is what we do not know for sure:

1. AMM by ASO? (leaning positive)
2. ENSO by ASO? (leaning negative)
3. Dominant MJO phase by ASO? (leaning Phase III)
4. Atlantic Niño by ASO?
5. NAO by ASO?
6. MJO amplitude?

Model guidance typically leans towards a -AMM for ASO this time of year, but recent trends point to a +AMM during ASO this season; however, during this +AMO period, the seasons of 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018 all had -AMM during ASO; so while a -AMM for ASO is unlikely this year, it is still possible, which is why it cannot be definitively called. Per usual, ENSO guidance during this time of year is messy, but atmospheric patterns (i.e. easterly winds and strong MJO over Indian Ocean) favor -ENSO conditions by ASO; however, last-minute flips may happen à la 2017, which is why it also cannot be called. Also per usual, the dominant MJO phase for ASO is not certain; generally speaking, Phases I, II, and III favor a quantity-over-quality season (higher storm count, lower ACE per storm); Phases IV and V favor a quality-over-quantity season (lower storm count, higher ACE per storm); Phases VI, VII, and VIII favor an inactive season; because of the forecast -ENSO and the model guidance, Phase III seems likely, but it is not certain.

The Atlantic Niño would be important for ITCZ latitude. Should the Atlantic Niño be strongly positive, the ITCZ would be suppressed to the south, preventing Caribbean development; right now, the IMME models show a strong Atlantic Niño for ASO, but the NMME models show an Atlantic Niña for ASO, meaning there is no clear consensus as of now. Being this far from ASO, it is impossible to say whether or not the NAO would be positive or negative this season, something that would be critical for landfall risks. Speaking of things that are impossible to say, it is impossible to say what the MJO amplitude would be this season; even if the base state is ripe for hyperactivity (e.g. 2021), a bad MJO phase could inhibit a season from reaching hyperactivity; a high-amplitude MJO would intensify the lulls of activity, decreasing the possible windows of opportunity for development; low-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2020) reinforce base states; high-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2021) counteract base states; nobody can say what the MJO amplitude would be.

A below-average season is, while unlikely, certainly still possible right now. An example of a below-average season with +AMO and -PDO is 2006. An average season (e.g. 2000 and 2007) is possible. An above-average season (e.g. 2008 and 2012) is possible. A hyperactive season (e.g. 2020) is possible.

Well just keep in mind that 2006 was below average mainly due to an El Nino

2006 was below-average because of +ENSO, so if the 2022-2023 ends up being a -ENSO winter, a below-average season would be out of play. However, an El Niño is still in play, so a below-average season is still in play.

[Category5Kaiju]

We know a few things already:

1. The AMO will be positive by ASO
2. The PDO will be negative by ASO

The AMO has been consistently positive since February 2019 and positive during ASO since 1997. There are also enough climate model guidance and historical trends to call a negative PDO this season. The PDO is important because a -PDO would be able to neutralize some of the effects of a +ENSO and vice-versa.

Here is what we do not know for sure:

1. AMM by ASO? (leaning positive)
2. ENSO by ASO? (leaning negative)
3. Dominant MJO phase by ASO? (leaning Phase III)
4. Atlantic Niño by ASO?
5. NAO by ASO?
6. MJO amplitude?

Model guidance typically leans towards a -AMM for ASO this time of year, but recent trends point to a +AMM during ASO this season; however, during this +AMO period, the seasons of 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018 all had -AMM during ASO; so while a -AMM for ASO is unlikely this year, it is still possible, which is why it cannot be definitively called. Per usual, ENSO guidance during this time of year is messy, but atmospheric patterns (i.e. easterly winds and strong MJO over Indian Ocean) favor -ENSO conditions by ASO; however, last-minute flips may happen à la 2017, which is why it also cannot be called. Also per usual, the dominant MJO phase for ASO is not certain; generally speaking, Phases I, II, and III favor a quantity-over-quality season (higher storm count, lower ACE per storm); Phases IV and V favor a quality-over-quantity season (lower storm count, higher ACE per storm); Phases VI, VII, and VIII favor an inactive season; because of the forecast -ENSO and the model guidance, Phase III seems likely, but it is not certain.

The Atlantic Niño would be important for ITCZ latitude. Should the Atlantic Niño be strongly positive, the ITCZ would be suppressed to the south, preventing Caribbean development; right now, the IMME models show a strong Atlantic Niño for ASO, but the NMME models show an Atlantic Niña for ASO, meaning there is no clear consensus as of now. Being this far from ASO, it is impossible to say whether or not the NAO would be positive or negative this season, something that would be critical for landfall risks. Speaking of things that are impossible to say, it is impossible to say what the MJO amplitude would be this season; even if the base state is ripe for hyperactivity (e.g. 2021), a bad MJO phase could inhibit a season from reaching hyperactivity; a high-amplitude MJO would intensify the lulls of activity, decreasing the possible windows of opportunity for development; low-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2020) reinforce base states; high-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2021) counteract base states; nobody can say what the MJO amplitude would be.

A below-average season is, while unlikely, certainly still possible right now. An example of a below-average season with +AMO and -PDO is 2006. An average season (e.g. 2000 and 2007) is possible. An above-average season (e.g. 2008 and 2012) is possible. A hyperactive season (e.g. 2020) is possible.

Well just keep in mind that 2006 was below average mainly due to an El Nino

2006 was below-average because of +ENSO, so if the 2022-2023 ends up being a -ENSO winter, a below-average season would be out of play. However, an El Niño is still in play, so a below-average season is still in play.

Eh, the ENSO progression (it's discussed in more detail in the ENSO-specific thread) currently does not look too sunny for an El Nino; given what I have read on there and from credible social media posts from wx mets, the warm pool that was supposed to reach the surface of the equatorial Pacific seems to be quite weak and being ever so slightly chipped away by cold segments. Yes, we are not at the SPB yet and still several months away from hurricane season, but given the current evolution of things, I am honestly doubtful that an El Nino will suddenly appear at this point. It would be a Hail Mary if something like that were to happen, quite frankly.

[Kingarabian]

Historically In legit a triple La Nina event, during the third La Nina, the Atlantic hurricane season tends to be mild and average.

2006 and 2012 won't be good analogs here.

[AlphaToOmega]

Historically In legit a triple La Nina event, during the third La Nina, the Atlantic hurricane season tends to be mild and average.

2006 and 2012 won't be good analogs here.

The only third La Niña I could find during a +AMO was 2000. The only fourth "La Niña" (-ENSO) I could find during a +AMO was 2001. Generally speaking, both seasons were average. A sample of 2 is not enough to establish a trend, but if third-year La Niñas were milder than second or first-year La Niñas, it is interesting to think about why. Perhaps it is due to the sinking air in the Atlantic induced by an El Niño, reducing cloud cover over the Atlantic, thus warming it.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1500579220585603082

[cycloneye]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1500579220585603082?

Hi Adrian. That was posted by Rob Lightborn on page 7.

[SFLcane]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1500579220585603082?

Hi Adrian. That was posted by Rob Lightborn on page 7.

Oops!

No problem my apologies.

[Long John]

[Long John]

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/models/gfs/gfs_0N_hov_uanom_2022030612.png

seems we will continue to see easterlies over the enso region over the coming weeks

[mixedDanilo.E]

We know a few things already:

1. The AMO will be positive by ASO
2. The PDO will be negative by ASO

The AMO has been consistently positive since February 2019 and positive during ASO since 1997. There are also enough climate model guidance and historical trends to call a negative PDO this season. The PDO is important because a -PDO would be able to neutralize some of the effects of a +ENSO and vice-versa.

Here is what we do not know for sure:

1. AMM by ASO? (leaning positive)
2. ENSO by ASO? (leaning negative)
3. Dominant MJO phase by ASO? (leaning Phase III)
4. Atlantic Niño by ASO?
5. NAO by ASO?
6. MJO amplitude?

Model guidance typically leans towards a -AMM for ASO this time of year, but recent trends point to a +AMM during ASO this season; however, during this +AMO period, the seasons of 1997, 2000, 2002, and 2018 all had -AMM during ASO; so while a -AMM for ASO is unlikely this year, it is still possible, which is why it cannot be definitively called. Per usual, ENSO guidance during this time of year is messy, but atmospheric patterns (i.e. easterly winds and strong MJO over Indian Ocean) favor -ENSO conditions by ASO; however, last-minute flips may happen à la 2017, which is why it also cannot be called. Also per usual, the dominant MJO phase for ASO is not certain; generally speaking, Phases I, II, and III favor a quantity-over-quality season (higher storm count, lower ACE per storm); Phases IV and V favor a quality-over-quantity season (lower storm count, higher ACE per storm); Phases VI, VII, and VIII favor an inactive season; because of the forecast -ENSO and the model guidance, Phase III seems likely, but it is not certain.

The Atlantic Niño would be important for ITCZ latitude. Should the Atlantic Niño be strongly positive, the ITCZ would be suppressed to the south, preventing Caribbean development; right now, the IMME models show a strong Atlantic Niño for ASO, but the NMME models show an Atlantic Niña for ASO, meaning there is no clear consensus as of now. Being this far from ASO, it is impossible to say whether or not the NAO would be positive or negative this season, something that would be critical for landfall risks. Speaking of things that are impossible to say, it is impossible to say what the MJO amplitude would be this season; even if the base state is ripe for hyperactivity (e.g. 2021), a bad MJO phase could inhibit a season from reaching hyperactivity; a high-amplitude MJO would intensify the lulls of activity, decreasing the possible windows of opportunity for development; low-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2020) reinforce base states; high-amplitude MJOs (e.g. 2021) counteract base states; nobody can say what the MJO amplitude would be.

A below-average season is, while unlikely, certainly still possible right now. An example of a below-average season with +AMO and -PDO is 2006. An average season (e.g. 2000 and 2007) is possible. An above-average season (e.g. 2008 and 2012) is possible. A hyperactive season (e.g. 2020) is possible.

I’ll tell u tho imo - models have the MJO much more centered closer to phase 3-4-5 this year than 2020-2021. Which is interesting but we’ll see.

[cycloneye]

NMME model.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1500894320857071628




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1500900835454341122

[NotSparta]

NMME model.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1500894320857071628

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1500900835454341122

Yeah an active look verbatim with trend away from +ENSO and a signal for +AMM. Of course lots of time for trends to take place but if this verified it'd be interesting to see how much dry air the waves would have to deal with

[aspen]

NMME model.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1500894320857071628

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1500900835454341122

The MDR looks to have an “Atlantic Nina” instead of the NAtl Niño seen last year, so maybe we’ll end up with a Cape Verde season more comparable to 2019/20 than 2021.