Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[weeniepatrol]

TCgenesis underway IMO

[SouthFLTropics]

This is looking really good this morning. All systems are go for takeoff. I think the game is on people. The Euro operational and ensembles are concerning as are the GFS ensembles in a lesser way. I’m not buying the GFS operational idea of a sharp right turn just before Puerto Rico. I’ve seen the GFS underestimate ridging too many times. With that said, the longer term track and any impacts to CONUS are still out in fantasy range. The more immediate concern is for our friends in the islands.

[Nimbus]

That sound that you might hear this morning, is the 2022 Hurricane Season "bell" LOL. 10N & 35W is in fact what models have been lighting up with. That wave is consolidating nicely with what appears to be an impressive CDO having developed with beautiful outflow. This could potentially become a problem for some folks.... we'll see.

Didn't dry up at 35W like previous waves due to moisture from the ITCZ.
The TUTT looks like it has gone warm core now but apparently is forecast to return near 200 hours out.
Probably be my first and last post about this wave in this forum before Luis has to move the thread.

[cycloneye]

That sound that you might hear this morning, is the 2022 Hurricane Season "bell" LOL. 10N & 35W is in fact what models have been lighting up with. That wave is consolidating nicely with what appears to be an impressive CDO having developed with beautiful outflow. This could potentially become a problem for some folks.... we'll see.

Didn't dry up at 35W like previous waves due to moisture from the ITCZ.
The TUTT looks like it has gone warm core now but apparently is forecast to return near 200 hours out.
Probably be my first and last post about this wave in this forum before Luis has to move the thread.

Not move but lock because of invest.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1563124477617008640

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=10/30

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system through early next week while it moves westward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[skyline385]

The TUTT is still there, maybe thats why the operational Euro was relatively weaker

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1563130012835803136

[Tropics Guy]

Is this the area at approx 10 north & 36 west?, this area IMO already looks to be close to invest status, good persistant convection, vorticity increasing, SAL to the north, all looks good for development, at least for now.

[skyline385]

Recent loop, the SW blob wave axis seems to be rotating

Is this the area at approx 10 north & 36 west?, this area IMO already looks to be close to invest status, good persistant convection, vorticity increasing, SAL to the north, all looks good for development, at least for now.

Yep that's our AOI See below update from cycloneye

[cycloneye]

Recent loop, the SW blob wave axis seems to be rotating

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/69915035.[/url]

Is this the area at approx 10 north & 36 west?, this area IMO already looks to be close to invest status, good persistant convection, vorticity increasing, SAL to the north, all looks good for development, at least for now.

Yep that's our AOI

NHC still has the x well NE of there.

[BobHarlem]

Recent loop, the SW blob wave axis seems to be rotating

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/69915035.gif

Is this the area at approx 10 north & 36 west?, this area IMO already looks to be close to invest status, good persistant convection, vorticity increasing, SAL to the north, all looks good for development, at least for now.

Yep that's our AOI

I think this may be confusing folks, the NHC's mentioning the area just to the SW of CV, the MCS area out ahead of it is getting a life of its own now, but it's also what some of the models shown (like icon) where the interaction between the two is effectively causing problems for them. Although I think that area on the west winds up becoming Danielle, the area to the right gets absorbed or thrown off. Regardless interaction between those two areas seems complex. In the short term I don't think models know what day it is on it. So I think really it's just looking at real time satellite and vorticity charts at the moment, god knows what recon would find in this situation.

[skyline385]

Recent loop, the SW blob wave axis seems to be rotating

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/69915035.[/url]

Is this the area at approx 10 north & 36 west?, this area IMO already looks to be close to invest status, good persistant convection, vorticity increasing, SAL to the north, all looks good for development, at least for now.

Yep that's our AOI

NHC still has the x well NE of there.

https://i.imgur.com/c7skgX1.png

Didnt check the NHC location, thanks for the correction. I guess they are still waiting to see which of the two blobs comes out on top?

[cycloneye]

Looking better as time goes by. Around 10N-37W.

[jlauderdal]

Looking better as time goes by. Around 37W.

IR eye candy to settle everyone down. First real player of the season.

[Category5Kaiju]

So this guy does not seem to have succumbed to dry air and is already showing signs of organization and rotation.

Yup, here we go.

[AutoPenalti]

Will deal not one but THREE ULL’s followed by a PV streamer set to dip down towards the Atlantic.

Lots of obstacles ahead of it.

[USTropics]

Recent loop, the SW blob wave axis seems to be rotating

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/69915035.[/url]



Yep that's our AOI

NHC still has the x well NE of there.

https://i.imgur.com/c7skgX1.png

Didnt check the NHC location, thanks for the correction. I guess they are still waiting to see which of the two blobs comes out on top?

This is more of a mid-level complex due to the trade winds divergence associated with the monsoon trough. You have sharp east to west flow associated with the trades to the north (blue) and west to east flow abruptly to the south as you head towards the equator (pink):


This "turning" of the winds creates your spin (vorticity) that you can see on the analysis chart. It won't be competing with the wave axis, more so the wave axis will move through this area. In the process, it will incorporate the mid-level energy associated with this MLC as it wraps up further west near 40W. You can see this process already beginning:

[NDG]

This TW is legit, is in a low latitude away from the bone dry air in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, is getting hit by light easterly shear but is coming in from a moist environment.

[Stormybajan]

Seeing how this 2022 hurricane season has been so far...ill wait atleast 2 days to see if this is a serious area to watch or not. Too many times the euro has had an MDR system to follow on modelling and then it goes poof lol. If it DOES somehow manage to finally develop into Danielle then this might be a problem for the leeward islands (Guadeloupe and north of there). Interesting the NHC still has their X north east of the current convection but also has it pushing SW overtime...vorticity with the SW lobe definitely has increased but I dont think the NHC is ready to pull the trigger on an invest just yet....48 hours from now we should have a much clearer idea of this disturbance

[Iceresistance]

This TW is legit, is in a low latitude away from the bone dry air in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, is getting hit by light easterly shear but is coming in from a moist environment.

The Easterly Shear is getting weaker too. This could be the first legit CV player here.

It also appears that it may have a legit LLC forming.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/58295435.gif

The Northern and Western Outflow is also impressive for a TW.