Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[SFLcane]

Ridge looked weaker this run. I bet next run comes across the Florida peninsula.

[cycloneye]

Ridge looked weaker this run. I bet next run comes across the Florida peninsula.

The trough you mentioned earlier may be present.

[sma10]

Fwiw, 18z ICON agrees thru 120h

[StPeteMike]

Ridge looked weaker this run. I bet next run comes across the Florida peninsula.

The trough does nothing to the ridge which is interesting. I expect a more east landfall next run.

[skyline385]

It is moving ridiculously fast in the Gulf, think that maybe detrimental to its development

[SFLcane]

GEFS looks Meh… Modelcane? Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if it drops it next run considering it’s 2022.

[Nimbus]

It would almost be better if the SAL let up so these storms could spin up and recurve early.
These models that stimulate a compulsive interest in their audience with a 933 mb land falling hurricane can get irritating but probably reflects whatever variables they are focusing on now. How far off from random are they actually calling for a gulf storm at 10 days out?

[wxman57]

GFS has been developing spurious strong hurricanes all over the globe, every basin. Don't believe it if it is by itself in the prediction. It may be properly following a feature, but it way overdoes development everywhere.

[lsuhurricane]

GFS Ensembles are very potent and in a similar spot to the Euro Ensembles.

[SoupBone]

GFS has been developing spurious strong hurricanes all over the globe, every basin. Don't believe it if it is by itself in the prediction. It may be properly following a feature, but it way overdoes development everywhere.

I think it's trying to ruin your Labor Day plans.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS out to 144 hours

[lsuhurricane]

[SouthFLTropics]

Ridge looked weaker this run. I bet next run comes across the Florida peninsula.

The trough does nothing to the ridge which is interesting. I expect a more east landfall next run.

Considering it is only late August/early September I’d be more inclined to believe further west is more likely. While not unheard of, it would be unusual to get a strong trough this early. Of course, Charley would beg to differ. If recent history holds any value, I’d be concerned if I lived in western Louisiana. They’ve been the prime target in recent years.

[cycloneye]

East of The Windward Islands:
A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Even though this system
remains disorganized, environmental conditions could become more
conducive for development in a few days while it is forecast to move
across the Windward Islands and into the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SohCahToa]

GFS has been developing spurious strong hurricanes all over the globe, every basin. Don't believe it if it is by itself in the prediction. It may be properly following a feature, but it way overdoes development everywhere.

Hoping this turns out to be the case and this just flat out doesn’t develop. Have a 5 day trip planned for to Panama City for my boys 1st bday.

He was born a week after riding out Hurricane Ida, looking for a less eventful first week of August this year lol

[blp]

GEFS looks Meh… Modelcane? Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if it drops it next run considering it’s 2022.

If it wasn't for the ICON I would definitely say modelcane. What most likely is going is what has happened all year with the GFS with its implicit intensity bias on the Western Caribbean. We won't know for sure until other models jump on board how strong this will be.

[LarryWx]

Every one of the 8 cold 3rd year ENSO analog seasons had significant impact on the gulf coast of FL fwiw. Also, regarding the entire basin, this was by a good margin the hardest hit area overall. Just food for thought and fwiw to keep in mind throughout the season as opposed to just for this wave, specifically. Hopefully they won't get anything like this from this wave or any this year!

[tolakram]

SLIDER proxy visible https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=15333&y=8843&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[IcyTundra]

GFS is likely too strong imo. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing stays weak and crashes into Belize or the Yucatan.

[Clearcloudz]

GFS is likely too strong imo. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing stays weak and crashes into Belize or the Yucatan.

A lot of the ensembles show that possibility.