Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[zzzh]

I would ignore the GFS for genesis this year.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697688931108782436

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS So far... Slight S shift from 00Z

[WalterWhite]

Wow.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697688931108782436

I forget which model is more biased towards strong ridging: Is it the GFS or the ECMWF?

[captainbarbossa19]

12Z EPS So far... Slight S shift from 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/E1mZowm.png

Those locations are starting to remind me of a certain storm that formed 6 years ago around this time.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS So far... Slight S shift from 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/E1mZowm.png

Those locations are starting to remind me of a certain storm that formed 6 years ago around this time.

Yea, that one had the infamous WSW Dip - no sign of that here.

[IcyTundra]

Irma formed at 16.4 N this one should be a decent bit lower. No WSW dip expected.

[SconnieCane]

12Z EPS So far... Slight S shift from 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/E1mZowm.png

Those locations are starting to remind me of a certain storm that formed 6 years ago around this time.

Yea, that one had the infamous WSW Dip - no sign of that here.

It doesn't need the WSW dip if it's already at a lower latitude.

Would of course be foolish to call for such a high-impact outcome at this stage; it would be equally foolish to rule it out. Lots of interesting tracking ahead; seeing as it's already September 1st, those in hurricane-prone areas should have their supplies on hand and plans in place.

Kinda blows my mind, especially after Michael, Ian and now Idalia, how many people have moved to Florida and it doesn't seem to have occurred to them that hurricanes might be a hazard. I've been fascinated by Andrew from the first Weather Channel documentary I saw about it, probably about a year after it happened, from the age of 7.

[chris_fit]

Fantasy Range - Turning North/NE

[AutoPenalti]

Fantasy Range - Turning North/NE

https://i.imgur.com/23K6d0r.png

The recurve seems more likely. Just based off the lack of East coast ridging we've seen this year.

[captainbarbossa19]

Those locations are starting to remind me of a certain storm that formed 6 years ago around this time.

Yea, that one had the infamous WSW Dip - no sign of that here.

It doesn't need the WSW dip if it's already at a lower latitude.

Would of course be foolish to call for such a high-impact outcome at this stage; it would be equally foolish to rule it out. Lots of interesting tracking ahead; seeing as it's already September 1st, those in hurricane-prone areas should have their supplies on hand and plans in place.

Kinda blows my mind, especially after Michael, Ian and now Idalia, how many people have moved to Florida and it doesn't seem to have occurred to them that hurricanes might be a hazard. I've been fascinated by Andrew from the first Weather Channel documentary I saw about it, probably about a year after it happened, from the age of 7.

Found this on the Irma models thread. As we know, a lot changed by the time she was approaching the islands. This current system could go OTS at some point, but this image shows that models certainly cannot be trusted on a projected track so far out in time.

[SFLcane]

Yea, that one had the infamous WSW Dip - no sign of that here.

It doesn't need the WSW dip if it's already at a lower latitude.

Would of course be foolish to call for such a high-impact outcome at this stage; it would be equally foolish to rule it out. Lots of interesting tracking ahead; seeing as it's already September 1st, those in hurricane-prone areas should have their supplies on hand and plans in place.

Kinda blows my mind, especially after Michael, Ian and now Idalia, how many people have moved to Florida and it doesn't seem to have occurred to them that hurricanes might be a hazard. I've been fascinated by Andrew from the first Weather Channel documentary I saw about it, probably about a year after it happened, from the age of 7.

https://i.imgur.com/kYLQh8C.png

Found this on the Irma models thread. As we know, a lot changed by the time she was approaching the islands. This current system could go OTS at some point, but this image shows that models certainly cannot be trusted on a projected track so far out in time.

While true the pattern is much different right now you have a ridge out west and trof over the southeast. Unless that trof out west gets weaker there’s no path for such a storm to continue west. Islands though should watch closely

[OuterBanker]

The GFS is really wacko this year. 06 z had a monster Ga to NC, 12z doesn't even develop anywhere. After this season it needs to enter rehab. I have never seen it perform as badly as this year in the long term forecast.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/craigsetzer/status/1697682303558857211

[LarryWx]

From the 12Z UKMET hour 168:

Surface showing TC 300 miles E of Leewards (moving WNW at 15):

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/202 ... 1200z.html

--------------------------
H5: In addition to being a threat to the NE Caribbean, this doesn't yet look like anything close to a guarantee to not hit the CONUS although the best bet this far out is a miss based on 75%+ of E MDR systems doing just that:

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/202 ... 1200z.html

[Stratton23]

The SE coast needs to watch this, definitely not a 100% guarantee this will recurve

[SFLcane]

Did the 12z Eps slip west from 00z?

[zzzh]

Here it comes.

[IcyTundra]

Did the 12z Eps slip west from 00z?

Yes slightly west of 00Z

[AutoPenalti]

Did the 12z Eps slip west from 00z?

Slightly.