2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[SFLcane]

Seasonal forecast have come a long way and have improved greatly in recent years let alone 2006, 2013. I have great respect for Philp k and his work IF the Atlantic warming holds with a la nina by peak of hurricane season i have no doupt Philp's April forecast could be record high with good reason. As mentioned if its record busy who exactly will it be for Nemo or the Conus we shall see.

They have improved, yes, but that doesn't mean they are perfect. 2022 wasn't that long ago

Surely, but some of the years being thrown out here like 2013 and 2006 your talking 10 years ago lol in particular Philip k’s work has come a long way. Overall they have improved in particular Last year when everyone was bashing Colorado State he correctly called for a busy season despite El Niño present. Don’t have to be a scientist to see that 2024 has extreme potential if the Atlantic stays warm with La Niña by AS0. 5 majors hurricanes in April is on the table. With a very busy season the odds favor 1-2 getting through but in reality numbers don’t matter just takes 1 in your location.

[aspen]

Seasonal forecast have come a long way and have improved greatly in recent years let alone 2006, 2013. I have great respect for Philp k and his work IF the Atlantic warming holds with a la nina by peak of hurricane season i have no doupt Philp's April forecast could be record high with good reason. As mentioned if its record busy who exactly will it be for Nemo or the Conus we shall see.

They have improved, yes, but that doesn't mean they are perfect. 2022 wasn't that long ago

In hindsight, we really should’ve seen 2022’s bust far in advance. There were two key factors that were present before the season began. First was that it was a triple-dip La Niña, which have yielded less active Atlantic hurricane seasons compared to their first and second-year Nina predecessors. Second was the abnormal warmth near Atlantic Canada, which really went berserk in July-August but was present earlier in the year IIRC. That unusual SSTA configuration helped suppress the tropics until September.

We’ve probably had enough busts by this point to pick out any significant negative factors well in advance — rapid Nino development, a collapse of the THC, or another marine heatwave. However, it’s always possible something else pops up.

[WiscoWx02]

Seasonal forecast have come a long way and have improved greatly in recent years let alone 2006, 2013. I have great respect for Philp k and his work IF the Atlantic warming holds with a la nina by peak of hurricane season i have no doupt Philp's April forecast could be record high with good reason. As mentioned if its record busy who exactly will it be for Nemo or the Conus we shall see.

They have improved, yes, but that doesn't mean they are perfect. 2022 wasn't that long ago

In hindsight, we really should’ve seen 2022’s bust far in advance. There were two key factors that were present before the season began. First was that it was a triple-dip La Niña, which have yielded less active Atlantic hurricane seasons compared to their first and second-year Nina predecessors. Second was the abnormal warmth near Atlantic Canada, which really went berserk in July-August but was present earlier in the year IIRC. That unusual SSTA configuration helped suppress the tropics until September.

We’ve probably had enough busts by this point to pick out any significant negative factors well in advance — rapid Nino development, a collapse of the THC, or another marine heatwave. However, it’s always possible something else pops up.

I agree, you just never know. All this pre-pre season talk about how active of a season it may be would sure be interesting to look back on if something pops up between now and August and the season ends up being quiet. It's all just pure speculation at this point though, all we can do.
The big thing to note is while it does look like some increase in trades is expected in the coming week or so, it won't probably be around for long given the persistent -NAO pattern we have been in curtesy of El Niño. It would take a long period of amplified easterly trades across the tropical Atlantic to cool it down, even back to normal. Where we are right now sorta reminds me of later in the winter of 2020, where warm SST's were being talked about quite a bit by the time lockdowns began because what else could we all talk about or do?

[TheWisestofAll]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1749917061042602459

[cycloneye]

The question is if the +AMO will be around until ASO.

[NotSparta]

The question is if the +AMO will be around until ASO.

Seems highly likely. I feel like a better question is how +AMO it is. Does it somehow maintain at 2023 levels? Or does it fade a little to a more "normal" +AMO?

[TheWisestofAll]

The question is if the +AMO will be around until ASO.

Seems highly likely. I feel like a better question is how +AMO it is. Does it somehow maintain at 2023 levels? Or does it fade a little to a more "normal" +AMO?

I remember seeing somewhere that the MDR climatologically favored to be warmer following an El Nino, but I'm not sure how that works with what we got in 2023. I can barely imagine what an MDR warmer than that would even look like. No way it maintains thru to peak season, does it?

[Long John]

It doesn't need to be at 2023 levels to be hyperactive. 2004, 2017 or 2005 levels of warmth would be enough and we will likely be above those in ASO

[SFLcane]

Neutral conditions for ASO if that panned out would be pretty bad news. That Atlantic is already on fire those April forecast should be...

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1750260772507173001

[Ptarmigan]

A post-El Nino season is generally more active.

[al78]

Seasonal forecast have come a long way and have improved greatly in recent years let alone 2006, 2013. I have great respect for Philp k and his work IF the Atlantic warming holds with a la nina by peak of hurricane season i have no doupt Philp's April forecast could be record high with good reason. As mentioned if its record busy who exactly will it be for Nemo or the Conus we shall see.

They have improved, yes, but that doesn't mean they are perfect. 2022 wasn't that long ago

In hindsight, we really should’ve seen 2022’s bust far in advance. There were two key factors that were present before the season began. First was that it was a triple-dip La Niña, which have yielded less active Atlantic hurricane seasons compared to their first and second-year Nina predecessors. Second was the abnormal warmth near Atlantic Canada, which really went berserk in July-August but was present earlier in the year IIRC. That unusual SSTA configuration helped suppress the tropics until September.

We’ve probably had enough busts by this point to pick out any significant negative factors well in advance — rapid Nino development, a collapse of the THC, or another marine heatwave. However, it’s always possible something else pops up.

I'm not convinced about this. Hindsight is easy but as far as triple dip La Nina's are concerned, there have only been three others since 1950 and one of those was in the negative AMO period, which IMO is not enough samples to draw any meaningful conclusion. My understanding of the cause of the inactive August was a combination of a persistent TUTT, Saharan air outbreaks and interaction between the tropics and the mid-latitudes through Rossby wave breaking which further imparted hostile conditions over the MDR. I don't know where abnormal warmth near Canada fits into this or what physical mechanism would cause it to suppress activity (I'm not saying there isn't one, just that I am not aware of one). The reality is that there is always some intra-seasonal variability that is unpredictable which has the potential to make or break a season, for example, 2013 and persistent subsidence over the tropical Atlantic, so any seasonal forecast is going to come with some uncertainty based on these unpredictable factors that can act against the more predictable or lagged observed large scale climate fields such as SST, ENSO, the AMO and the NAO.

[AnnularCane]

5 majors hurricanes in April is on the table.

I assume you're talking predictions?

[cycloneye]

I assume you're talking predictions?

He is talking about the April 3 date when CSU will release their first forecast.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I assume you're talking predictions?

He is talking about the April 3 date when CSU will release their first forecast.

Will be worth seeing how bullish they'll be. 18-9-4 was the most aggressive forecast I can recall in recent memory for April back in (gasp) 2013. Given the probable ENSO state by late spring and into the summer + likely continuation of very warm SSTs, will they go even higher?

[cycloneye]

Here are the sst's anomalies as of January 29 from Coral Reef and OISST. The NAO is positive right now, but will go down to the line between positive and negative soon.

[weeniepatrol]

Ahh, who else fondly remembers the days of debating +++AMO’s end? Great times

[Hurricane2022]

Ahh, who else fondly remembers the days of debating +++AMO’s end? Great times

Really great times, it generated a lot of good discussions on Twitter and here. Little did we know that hell was just beginning...

.. I really miss those times

[Category5Kaiju]

Ahh, who else fondly remembers the days of debating +++AMO’s end? Great times

Really great times, it generated a lot of good discussions on Twitter and here. Little did we know that hell was just beginning...

.. I really miss those times

Yeah, the more and more I think about it, 2013-2015 was just a blip. We've just emerged from the most active moderate+ strength El Nino Atlantic season in recorded times, and that Nino is about to disappear.

[Ptarmigan]

Ahh, who else fondly remembers the days of debating +++AMO’s end? Great times

Really great times, it generated a lot of good discussions on Twitter and here. Little did we know that hell was just beginning...

.. I really miss those times

Yeah, the more and more I think about it, 2013-2015 was just a blip. We've just emerged from the most active moderate+ strength El Nino Atlantic season in recorded times, and that Nino is about to disappear.

Even in warm AMOs, there are cool periods. Vice versa during cool AMOs.

[SFLcane]

I assume you're talking predictions?

My predictions no but it could be in Phils outlook in April. 5 major hurricane + is certainly possible if everything lines up across the Atl.