Tropical Wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands (30/70)

[Cachondo23]

12z Euro ensembles shifted right overall, 8 members go over the islands, which is actually more than the 0z, but most members shifted further north than the 0z, middle of the road is generally pointed toward Bermuda.

https://i.postimg.cc/mrRczq8M/37139434.gif

Euro ensembles tracks that go through NE Caribbean look like Hugo 89’

[Pelicane]

GEFS is well north of the operational.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic
southwest of the Cabo Verde islands continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
remain conducive for gradual development of this system during
the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
late this week or this weekend. This system is expected to
move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[BobHarlem]

The 18z gfs operational goes over Bermuda, then hooks west toward the tip of Cape Cod giving New England a good scare, stalls then goes out to sea while scraping along Nova Scotia.



12z google ensemble runs shifted right, only two of them goes over the islands, and one of those two has the wave fall apart as it does.

[Weathertracker96]

I know the 18z euro doesn’t go out far but I saw it’s more south than the 12z. I don’t have a pivotal weather account but just wanted to pass along what I saw. Maybe someone can post the 18z euro run.
The islands may need to watch this.

[cycloneye]

I know the 18z euro doesn’t go out far but I saw it’s more south than the 12z. I don’t have a pivotal weather account but just wanted to pass along what I saw. Maybe someone can post the 18z euro run.
The islands may need to watch this.

More south and fairly strong. From where I am, I don't like it a bit.

[BobHarlem]

I know the 18z euro doesn’t go out far but I saw it’s more south than the 12z. I don’t have a pivotal weather account but just wanted to pass along what I saw. Maybe someone can post the 18z euro run.
The islands may need to watch this.

It's southwest at 144hours (as far as it goes out) 14.4N vs 16.4n at the 12z. aka 2 whole degrees south of the 12z.




The Euro AI doesn't develop this at all.

[Weathertracker96]

I know the 18z euro doesn’t go out far but I saw it’s more south than the 12z. I don’t have a pivotal weather account but just wanted to pass along what I saw. Maybe someone can post the 18z euro run.
The islands may need to watch this.

More south and fairly strong. From where I am, I don't like it a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/m6Xuond.jpeg

Hope it avoids land. I know recovering from these storms is a massive headache etc.

[IcyTundra]

I know the 18z euro doesn’t go out far but I saw it’s more south than the 12z. I don’t have a pivotal weather account but just wanted to pass along what I saw. Maybe someone can post the 18z euro run.
The islands may need to watch this.

It's southwest at 144hours (as far as it goes out) 14.4N vs 16.4n at the 12z. aka 2 whole degrees south of the 12z.


https://i.imgur.com/VHcCeNM.png

18Z GFS is at 17.4N at 144 hours. Most GEFS members are north of the OP GFS as well. My guess right now is that the islands are at more of a risk than the GEFS and GFS are suggesting but I have always been more of a Euro over the GFS guy.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I would like an Invest please…

[IcyTundra]

I would like an Invest please…

I thought they would designate it today maybe they are waiting for the 48 hour dev chances to increase

[AnnularCane]

Lorena wasn't declared an invest until she was 60/80. I hope they're not waiting for that.

[Category5Kaiju]

18z ECMWF is an eye-opener for sure.

It would need to suddenly slow down and make quite the NW jog for it to avoid the islands (like in Sam fashion), because that latitude/longitude combination isn't necessarily the best spot for a storm to be to avoid crashing into the Lesser Antilles in some fashion.

[msbee]

I know the 18z euro doesn’t go out far but I saw it’s more south than the 12z. I don’t have a pivotal weather account but just wanted to pass along what I saw. Maybe someone can post the 18z euro run.
The islands may need to watch this.

More south and fairly strong. From where I am, I don't like it a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/m6Xuond.jpeg

I’m not liking it either, Luis.

[cycloneye]

I know the 18z euro doesn’t go out far but I saw it’s more south than the 12z. I don’t have a pivotal weather account but just wanted to pass along what I saw. Maybe someone can post the 18z euro run.
The islands may need to watch this.

More south and fairly strong. From where I am, I don't like it a bit.

https://i.imgur.com/m6Xuond.jpeg

I’m not liking it either, Luis.

I know Barbara. We have to watch it.

[Ptarmigan]

I expect this to be tagged as an Invest soon.

[mitchell]

The simplistic way I see it, as long as there is a potential string of high pressures stretching from Central Canada to the north atlantic, then this far out there is no way to rule out the system getting stuck underneath one of them and being forced west.

[chaser1]

IDK guys, but I just can't see how NHC labels this broad and extremely disorganized pile of scattered convection as an Invest (now just watch them classify it at 11:00pm )
The primary reason I say that is simply where in the world would you claim a "center" be? I don't see any clear evidence of circulation; heck... I don't see a CDO or even a trackable concentration of convection. I know NHC is confident thus the "70%" chance for development in the 3-7 day range. But if I'm now-casting, I'd be less generous than to give this a 30% of developing into a T.D. by Thursday night (0Z Fri.).

[zzzh]

It's interesting that AI models are backing off from development.

[Teban54]

18z ECMWF is an eye-opener for sure.

It would need to suddenly slow down and make quite the NW jog for it to avoid the islands (like in Sam fashion), because that latitude/longitude combination isn't necessarily the best spot for a storm to be to avoid crashing into the Lesser Antilles in some fashion.

Last frame on 18z Euro, for reference: