If I were in western Cuba

[Ivanhater]

SHES RIGHT ON TRACK

[Raebie]

I see a mod poping in soon...

Really?

*They* started it!

[stormie_skies]

"I'm sure Emily gives a rats azz about the NHC's track and whether or not shes's on it."

That is one of the most ignorant statements I have seen, you obviously have missed the whole point. It has nothing to do with what Emily "thinks" of the NHC track, it has to do with the fact that she's gone south or on the track, and there is no reason to expect her to deviate from what she's done for the last week and a half.

Tropical systems deviate from what they have been doing or what we think they are going to do ALL THE TIME. Thats why the NHC re-evaluates their forecast track several times a day ... if hurricanes just started heading in one direction and stayed there, they could put out one forecast and be done with it....

If Emily went south of the forecast track when she was weaker than expected, why would it be so impossible for her to go north of the track when she is stronger than expected???

[Mello1]

"I'm sure Emily gives a rats azz about the NHC's track and whether or not shes's on it."

That is one of the most ignorant statements I have seen, you obviously have missed the whole point. It has nothing to do with what Emily "thinks" of the NHC track, it has to do with the fact that she's gone south or on the track, and there is no reason to expect her to deviate from what she's done for the last week and a half.

Ummm..... lighten up already. Lawd.... I think the point simply was that no one has any control over where the storm is going. No matter how much we learn about it...

I think some of you guys should go play Internet poker and come back in 12 hours. Really, it will be okay....

[millibar]

...calm DOWN, okay???

OK, these NC eyes (no bias here) see what could be an apparent interpretation of a more northerly movement (especially using the Vis Loop) due to the "stadium effect". As the sun sets, it casts a shadow on the western wall of the eye, giving the appearance of a change in movement.

Peace ,
Millibar

[pcolaguy]

"I'm sure Emily gives a rats azz about the NHC's track and whether or not shes's on it."

That is one of the most ignorant statements I have seen, you obviously have missed the whole point. It has nothing to do with what Emily "thinks" of the NHC track, it has to do with the fact that she's gone south or on the track, and there is no reason to expect her to deviate from what she's done for the last week and a half.

Tropical systems deviate from what they have been doing or what we think they are going to do ALL THE TIME. Thats why the NHC re-evaluates their forecast track several times a day ... if hurricanes just started heading in one direction and stayed there, they could put out one forecast and be done with it....

If Emily went south of the forecast track when she was weaker than expected, why would it be so impossible for her to go north of the track when she is stronger than expected???

Never said it was impossible, just highly unlikely.

[Galvestongirl]

Tropical systems deviate from what they have been doing or what we think they are going to do ALL THE TIME. Thats why the NHC re-evaluates their forecast track several times a day ... if hurricanes just started heading in one direction and stayed there, they could put out one forecast and be done with it....

If Emily went south of the forecast track when she was weaker than expected, why would it be so impossible for her to go north of the track when she is stronger than expected???[/quote]

I was wondering this also...when a storm gets stronger dont they tend to go more poleward?

[stormie_skies]

"I'm sure Emily gives a rats azz about the NHC's track and whether or not shes's on it."

That is one of the most ignorant statements I have seen, you obviously have missed the whole point. It has nothing to do with what Emily "thinks" of the NHC track, it has to do with the fact that she's gone south or on the track, and there is no reason to expect her to deviate from what she's done for the last week and a half.

Tropical systems deviate from what they have been doing or what we think they are going to do ALL THE TIME. Thats why the NHC re-evaluates their forecast track several times a day ... if hurricanes just started heading in one direction and stayed there, they could put out one forecast and be done with it....

If Emily went south of the forecast track when she was weaker than expected, why would it be so impossible for her to go north of the track when she is stronger than expected???

Never said it was impossible, just highly unlikely.

Well, it seems several people disagree.....sooooo....lets just agree to disagree, wait and see what recon comes back with....

[deltadog03]

Tropical systems deviate from what they have been doing or what we think they are going to do ALL THE TIME. Thats why the NHC re-evaluates their forecast track several times a day ... if hurricanes just started heading in one direction and stayed there, they could put out one forecast and be done with it....

If Emily went south of the forecast track when she was weaker than expected, why would it be so impossible for her to go north of the track when she is stronger than expected???

I was wondering this also...when a storm gets stronger dont they tend to go more poleward?[/quote]

yes, when they are stronger...they do..YES....wow, mods maybe lock this please..

[feederband]

MAYDAY!!

[Raebie]

Lock my most successful thread *ever*?

[feederband]

Lock my most successful thread *ever*?

[Lori]

If Emily hits Texas, Give "my" $500 to Storm2K.

[mike18xx]

how old are you people? im a meteorology student, and im sure it not taking a NORTH jog

I'm 43 and unless there is a significant jog back to the west the 12 hr forecast position from the NHC will be a bust. It's very obvious right now.

Agreed.

(I used to be a meteorology student once, and, to quote Tron's grammar-challenged Master Control Program, "I've gotten 2415 times smarter since then.")

[mvtrucking]

how old are you people? im a meteorology student, and im sure it not taking a NORTH jog

I'm 43 and unless there is a significant jog back to the west the 12 hr forecast position from the NHC will be a bust. It's very obvious right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

Run the loop, add the forecast positions, zoom it in, and if you need to draw a line on your monitor between the little red hurricane symbols. But like it or not she's north of the forecast track right now. Is this just a wobble?, time will tell.

Without a doubt IMO.

[mike18xx]

Is this just a wobble?, time will tell.

Without a doubt IMO.

I'd guess "Jamaican drag".

[feederband]

I'm starting to LEAN more of a yuca channel passing...

[pcolaguy]

And I quote myself from earlier in the topic:

If Emily hits Texas I will pay each poster on this board $500.

Heh, go back and look how everyone acted like I was an idiot. I bet they all feel smart right now. Just like when I said Galveston would not get one drop of rain from Cindy about 4 days before landfall, and everyone freaked out.