Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

[mike18xx]

Huh?

[Ixolib]

Yes the south west cap verde wave is organizing at 12N/27W.
You can see some banding feature.
Look-at this picture:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

And looking even further east, looks to me like there's at least six more blobs crossing the continent as we speak... Fuel for the CV season??

[Astro_man92]

What is weird is that 1933 had NO true long track cape verde system. Nothing formed east of 46 that season and it is still the most active season on record.

That's exactly why I believe that the 1933 hurricane season must likely had 2 or 3 more tropical cyclones than what are records. Furthermore, if in 1933 or any other season before the satellite era, formed near Africa and simply moved north. It will be most likely missed as a tropical cyclone because lack of information. It most have took a ship encounter or a landfall for a cyclone to noticed.

Also, not only 1933, there are many hurricane season before the satellite era that we don't see systems between 45 W and Africa.

I bet some of those reported hurricanes where duplicates.

what i mean is one hurricane being seen again as totally different hurricane

[WeatherEmperor]

What is weird is that 1933 had NO true long track cape verde system. Nothing formed east of 46 that season and it is still the most active season on record.

That's exactly why I believe that the 1933 hurricane season must likely had 2 or 3 more tropical cyclones than what are records. Furthermore, if in 1933 or any other season before the satellite era, formed near Africa and simply moved north. It will be most likely missed as a tropical cyclone because lack of information. It most have took a ship encounter or a landfall for a cyclone to noticed.

Also, not only 1933, there are many hurricane season before the satellite era that we don't see systems between 45 W and Africa.

I bet some of those reported hurricanes where duplicates.

what i mean is one hurricane being seen again as totally different hurricane

yeah. we can guess about this all day long but in the end, we will never truly know what happened in 1933. Lets just leave 1933 the way it is cause there is not much else we can do about it.

<RICKY>

[Astro_man92]

what about the system that just passed the windward islands will that develope it was looking pretty strong

[wxmann_91]

what about the system that just passed the windward islands will that develope it was looking pretty strong

Not until the western Caribbean IMO. Too much SAL and shear. Also it must gain latitude.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

I dont copy and paste the pic at link above because it is very big.It updates every 15 minutes.

[abajan]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

I dont copy and paste the pic at link above because it is very big.It updates every 15 minutes.

Thanks for the link, cycloneye. The wave further east sure seems to be developing!

[OURAGAN]

It's why I posted it because this picture is updated every fifteen minutes.

[bvigal]

I think this wave is significant. It has held together since coming off the coast, beyond where most have begun to show precipitation disappearing. The convection which is building is not in the ITZ, but further north, classic CV territory. Despite the dust/dry air, it manages to build some convection, which looks very symmetrical in last few sat frames.

[Ivanhater]

hmmm, at first i thought the northern part was the main part, what about the southern part, seems to have banding features as well

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember that wave that came off the African coast a week ago. It made 99L which had looked to had formed a LLC.(40kt winds on quickscat). Then its middle formed Frankie. Then its base went into the caribbean to move across the Yuctan to form Gert.

[Ixolib]

Remember that wave that came off the African coast a week ago. It made 99L which had looked to had formed a LLC.(40kt winds on quickscat). Then its middle formed Frankie. Then its base went into the caribbean to move across the Yuctan to form Gert.

So... Potentially, we could end up with two named systems per wave coming off the coast of Africa. And this evening, there's quite a bit more to the east of the CV system - all still over the continent. Interesting doesn't even begin to describe what may come.

[cycloneye]

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW MAY BE FORMING ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 12N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE
POSSIBLE CIRCULATION FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 25W-27W BUT IS
DISORGANIZED AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE WAVE IS PART OF THE
LARGER MORE ITCZ-RELATED CIRCULATION EXTENDING TO THE SW. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... OTHERWISE
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 24W-32W.

From 8:05 PM Discussion:

Agree with Blake who wrote the discussion that still it is not totally organized as there is a broad circulation there.But slowly it is getting there as the LLC forms and convection consolidates much better.It will be a slow proccess so we have plenty of time to watch it in the comming days.

[cycloneye]

W-CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE FROM GUYANA TO 20N52W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. SURFACE DATA INDICATES THE WAVE IS STRONGLY TILTED FROM
SW TO NE WITH THE MID-LEVEL PORTION OF THE WAVE LAGGING BEHIND
THE SURFACE REFLECTION. SHOWERS/TSTMS PUSHED THRU THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS TODAY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
NEAR MARGARITA ISLAND. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE
WILL FRACTURE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH ONE PORTION MOVING
WESTWARD THRU THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ANOTHER PART MOVING MORE
TO THE NW IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH ALONG 55W.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH MOIST SE FLOW LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Discussion of wave over and east of lesser antilles.

This one has plenty of dust to work with distint to the wave in east atlantic.

[Astro_man92]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

I dont copy and paste the pic at link above because it is very big.It updates every 15 minutes.

WOW

THAT IS A COOL LINK!!!!!

[Ola]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

I dont copy and paste the pic at link above because it is very big.It updates every 15 minutes.

WOW

THAT IS A COOL LINK!!!!!

BTW you can animate that image too

[WeatherEmperor]

that website is really pimp. beats the NHC's site any day.

<RICKY>

[wxmann_91]

Does anybody think the wave could slam into South America? It's at a pretty low latitude.

Let's hope it doesn't develop before hitting Grenada. They've had enough already.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The system at 13.5/27.5 is starting to get much better oreganized. A ball of deep convection has formed over the center. In which it has started to form some banding to the south. The quickscat I do have shows what might be a cirulatoin. But most of the eastern side is not showing. I give this a good chance at developing. Maybe moving west-northwestward.