MJO

[wxwatcher91]

Ladies and Gentlemen, Boys and Girls...hop on board the Active train and get rrready for a wild ride!!

I dont doubt that this statement is correct... however just to note that this statement has been made about 20 times in the past month by various people and we have gotten nothing... lets hope this time the statement is correct... I support you 100% Tampa Bay Hurricane

[boca]

Tampa Bay Hurricane I guess your a Bush Gardens rollercoaster type of person I like that wild ride phrase.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Watch but hope none hit land so nobody gets hurt...

MJO is getting more favorable BTW it's gonna get REEAAALLL CRAZY!!!

Epitome of chronic insanity will be the Atlantic

MJO very Favorable over Cape Verde Waves



YEEEE HAWWW!!!

[TampaFl]

Current status of MJO

BUMP

Robert

[Scorpion]

Apparently the MJO doesn't really matter as TD 10 is almost dead anyways.

[Jim Hughes]

Apparently the MJO doesn't really matter as TD 10 is almost dead anyways.

It is just one or many. Like I mentioned in a thread about a week ago or more. MJO was the catch phrase of the month. Maybe people should start considering what other variables are effecting the season.


Jim

[AussieMark]

Could it be Shear and SAL?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF

[cycloneye]

Could it be Shear and SAL?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF

Dry MJO,Negative NAO.

[LarryWx]

I recall the MJO NOT being a reliable indicator at all last year.
Of course, last year not being reliable could have been an "outlier" of sorts. Nevertheless, in my opinion, it is unproven statistically. I'd love to see a hard statistical study on MJO. I'm betting that one of the problems is that classifying wet or dry is subjective/inexact, sort of like the qualifications for a negative NAO.

[Jim Hughes]

Could it be Shear and SAL?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF

Dry MJO,Negative NAO.

I couldn't argue with your line of reasoning. Now what caused these unfavorable changes ?

I posted a research paper a while ago dealing with the influence of the solar wind electric field modulation of the NAO. By Boberg and Lundstedt.

All tropical systems this year have reacted to space weather changes but everyone seems to be avoiding this possible influence.

I started a post in the Talkin Tropics Forum, of a make believe horse race , regarding a match race between 2004 & 2005 and it gets 300 plus views within two hours but over in the Global Forum my posts get 20-30 views in three days time.

Where's the logic for me posting an extensive in depth correlation analysis over there? It's a waste of my time...In the mean time this forum loses a great opportunity to learn about an important factor in climate-atmospheric dynamics.


Jim

[cycloneye]

Still the Atlantic is not very favorable as the wet MJO has not completly invaded the basin.It is a matter of time when the favorable MJO will be completly in the Atlantic.

[Frank2]

Some interesting comments here - I agree that the tropics are much more complicated than just one or even two positive or negative factors, though at this time, the factors against development are still winning (not counting Irene).

Frank

[johngaltfla]

Still the Atlantic is not very favorable as the wet MJO has not completly invaded the basin.It is a matter of time when the favorable MJO will be completly in the Atlantic.

Ugh. 7-10 days I'll bet.

Right for a month of fun, games and no sleep.

I just don't want to go through a night of my neighbors crap that they didn't batten down bouncing off my house ever again. I can see where this is heading. Perfect water temps, excellent MJO coverage, and a parade of systems hitting 85-90 degree water for a month solid. Just my speculation, but I don't think it's too far from reality.

[TampaFl]

Current status of MJO. Look out, the tropics are ready to get very active over the next couple of weeks.

BUMP

Robert

[weatherwoman]

good day to everyone

[wxmann_91]

Well, with all the dry air around, it is good to assume that even if the wet MJO gets here we will have to wait a week for the wetness to completely douse Sal. And it is also interesting to see the thickness of the wet MJO, looks like once the eastern edge gets to the CV islands the western edge is already to the North American continent, and the dry MJO won't be far behind. So it probably won't be as active as everybody thinks. Just an observation here.

[johngaltfla]

I think we're about to see the beginning of the wild season...that map today is disturbing a it fills out over the Atlantic..

[TampaFl]

BUMP

[cycloneye]

More and more the Atlantic is turning more favorable as the wet phase of MJO arrives at the basin.But it is a slow proccess that goes on with this so it may not be entirely favorable as of yet.But in the next few weeks when the peak of the season arrives especially the second week of september it will be favorable for cyclogeneris.However other factors may cancel this MJO favorable such as an unexpected weak el nino,NAO staying negative and SOI tanking.Let's watch all of these factors and see if they will coincide with MJO being favorable making the rest of the season very active or on the contrary the rest of the season will be under what the experts (Dr Gray,NOAA and Tropical Storm Risk) predicted in their August outlooks.

[TampaFl]

Bump