TD#9

[WeatherEmperor]

Im not liking this at all

Neither do I. Fortunately its still days away so we can watch if anything were to change.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

00:00z Graphic.Shift more west of models.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

05/0000 UTC 12.9N 34.4W T1.5/1.5 09

[WindRunner]

Im not liking this at all

It makes it more interseting to track, though!

[johngaltfla]

Im not liking this at all

If you live anywhere that was affected by Frances or Ivan you wouldn't like this at all either.

[Scorpion]

Pretty odd that GFDL is initializing it NNW.

[lilbump3000]

[jkt21787]

Im not liking this at all

If you live anywhere that was affected by Frances or Ivan you wouldn't like this at all either.

Frances started very similar in early model runs, and we know what happened. People were calling it a fish too.

[WindRunner]

Pretty odd that GFDL is initializing it NNW.

and with the amount that it flattens the track, it could be well off to the north.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I answered my own question. they are seeing a weakness left from Harvey. What does not make sense to me is Harvey will accelerate the the NE and by the time TD 9 makes it to the area of weakness around 50 west I don't see it being there. I think the berumda high will intensify and push the system more westerly in the direction towards the islands possibly skimming the northern most. Will a trough or ULL pull it more north after that, WAY to early to say. A lot of time for things to change.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_1.html

The new quickscats show that there is some 40 knot winds.

If I remember right...Each one of those full lines is 10 knots and half lines is 5 knots. So theres 40 knot winds on the nortwest quad.

The color shows 25 to 30 knots but the 'lines" making a F shape show different.

[Scorpion]

What I think will occur is that the weakness will open a small hole for Irene in the short term, almost like Frances. Will turn NW for a few days, but then the ridge will build in stronger and force it west on a course towards FL. Then we will have to see whether or not the ridge remains strong, if it does FL is under the gun, if not it will be a Carolinas/EC storm.

[Brent]

The westward trend begins... I've got shades of Andrew, Frances, and Isabel here.

[clfenwi]

Pretty odd that GFDL is initializing it NNW.

and with the amount that it flattens the track, it could be well off to the north.

Actually, it was initialized with a course of 275, just north of west, or wnw course.

It is at the 18 hour mark or so that it has the storm on a NW heading.

Another thing worth noting is that it kills the system at 96 hours... never brings it stronger than weak-moderate tropical storm... that would have an effect on the headings for the latter part of its track forecast.

link: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05080423

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Last year should of given some people a hint. That hurricanes don't care if your in there path or not. I think we are going to see more hurricanes there is studies that say that between 1,000 to 3,000 ago there was periods of activety that could make it very unfavable for human life on the coast. I think we could be entering one right now!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

This does make me nervous for one reason. ANDREW. If I remember correctly he was said to be a fish and was also a slow developer. If the front forecast to be in the central US this time next week does not dig far enough south and misses TD 9 and then the high strengthens, WATCH OUT

[BensonTCwatcher]

Is it just me or is each model run picking up on a more NW component while the whole time the system moves west? It's still seeing the weakness which by the time it would reach will be gone. * See Dereks forecast. The remnants of Harvey in the mid lattitudes will acclerate and also at a much quicker rate than Irene. The ridge will be in place. It's atiming thing

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Im not liking this at all

If you live anywhere that was affected by Frances or Ivan you wouldn't like this at all either.

Frances started very similar in early model runs, and we know what happened. People were calling it a fish too.

Fuh-fuh-fuh-frances????!?!?!?? I have extra CHOCOLATE to help us all stay awake tracking this system.

[Ivanhater]

they are talking about it on nhcradio now, dt will be on later and tell why he thinks it will be a possible southeast/fl/gulf threat

[wxman57]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_1.html

The new quickscats show that there is some 40 knot winds.

If I remember right...Each one of those full lines is 10 knots and half lines is 5 knots. So theres 40 knot winds on the nortwest quad.

The color shows 25 to 30 knots but the 'lines" making a F shape show different.

That quickscat image is from 0822Z (look on the lower right of the image for the correct time). At that time, the center was around 12.3N/32W. Winds in that area are 15-25 kts. Now the black barbs well to the southwest of the center (120-150 nautical miles) are rain-contaminated, meaning there are too many squalls there for an accurate surface estimate, so those 40kt winds are likely well above the surface.