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cycloneye wrote:THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES
NOT RETURN THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.
The above from discussion of 5 PM Advisorie.What we have to watch in the next 6-12 hours is if convection wraps around the primary center and if that not occurs then poof.
wxman57 wrote:elysium wrote:The thing that a lot of people are not taking into consideration is that the NHC and the rest of the meteorlogical community are taking what will probably be their last weekend off for some time. No one wants to rock the boat and even suggest anything other than that there is no need to be overly concerned about Irene. The weekend is the worst possible time to try to aquire updated model guidance since really, we are not talking about weather machines but weathermen and women who control the data that is being processed. Yes, there is a skeleton crew on hand, but no one wants to put out information that might suspend his colleage's time off. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast on Monday if necessary.
The NWS is also almost non-existant on weekends unless there is something out there within a reasonable proximity to land.
Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture. What you will never see on this Sunday is a 5 day track that accounts for the possibility of an abrupt turn to the west or west-southwest on day 4 or 5. You may see this tomorrow or Tuesday, but never on this Sunday. You might hear mention, though, of a possible erratic course or of some of the models hinting at anti-cyclone.
One of the posters here presented his scenario for Irene in 3 days from now, showing how Irene would move up into the weakness, but in order for Irene to do so, it entailed that the weakness in the rige remain in a static, stationary position. We all know that the ridge weakness is moving out in tandem with Harvey which is accelerating northeastward. We also know that the subtropical ridge is filling in briskly. We know that the ridge will be reinforced from the northwest and that traditionally, ridges that build in this time of year are extremely formidable, while weaknesses often wane.
It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. The model data do not take the weekend off. We get the same data whether it's a weekend or a weekday.
I think its absurd to say the weekend forecasters aren't as good as the middle of the week forecasters. Weather doesn't take the weekend off..neither do these guys.WindRunner wrote:wxman57 wrote:elysium wrote:The thing that a lot of people are not taking into consideration is that the NHC and the rest of the meteorlogical community are taking what will probably be their last weekend off for some time. No one wants to rock the boat and even suggest anything other than that there is no need to be overly concerned about Irene. The weekend is the worst possible time to try to aquire updated model guidance since really, we are not talking about weather machines but weathermen and women who control the data that is being processed. Yes, there is a skeleton crew on hand, but no one wants to put out information that might suspend his colleage's time off. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast on Monday if necessary.
The NWS is also almost non-existant on weekends unless there is something out there within a reasonable proximity to land.
Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture. What you will never see on this Sunday is a 5 day track that accounts for the possibility of an abrupt turn to the west or west-southwest on day 4 or 5. You may see this tomorrow or Tuesday, but never on this Sunday. You might hear mention, though, of a possible erratic course or of some of the models hinting at anti-cyclone.
One of the posters here presented his scenario for Irene in 3 days from now, showing how Irene would move up into the weakness, but in order for Irene to do so, it entailed that the weakness in the rige remain in a static, stationary position. We all know that the ridge weakness is moving out in tandem with Harvey which is accelerating northeastward. We also know that the subtropical ridge is filling in briskly. We know that the ridge will be reinforced from the northwest and that traditionally, ridges that build in this time of year are extremely formidable, while weaknesses often wane.
It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. The model data do not take the weekend off. We get the same data whether it's a weekend or a weekday.
What elysium is saying is that the better forecasters are not there to collect the data as well, so the data initialized into the models is not of the same quality as it is during the week, and so the outputs are not of the same quality. Continuity (due to lack of better info) might also be a large part of why the forecast hasn't varied much. This track is not that well defined because the regular mets haven't seen it since the first run (became TD at 5pm on Friday - I'd be well on my way home by the time the TWO came out!). Just wait for some better runs to come out at 12Z tomorrow, and then take the models seriously.
WindRunner wrote:wxman57 wrote:elysium wrote:The thing that a lot of people are not taking into consideration is that the NHC and the rest of the meteorlogical community are taking what will probably be their last weekend off for some time. No one wants to rock the boat and even suggest anything other than that there is no need to be overly concerned about Irene. The weekend is the worst possible time to try to aquire updated model guidance since really, we are not talking about weather machines but weathermen and women who control the data that is being processed. Yes, there is a skeleton crew on hand, but no one wants to put out information that might suspend his colleage's time off. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast on Monday if necessary.
The NWS is also almost non-existant on weekends unless there is something out there within a reasonable proximity to land.
Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture. What you will never see on this Sunday is a 5 day track that accounts for the possibility of an abrupt turn to the west or west-southwest on day 4 or 5. You may see this tomorrow or Tuesday, but never on this Sunday. You might hear mention, though, of a possible erratic course or of some of the models hinting at anti-cyclone.
One of the posters here presented his scenario for Irene in 3 days from now, showing how Irene would move up into the weakness, but in order for Irene to do so, it entailed that the weakness in the rige remain in a static, stationary position. We all know that the ridge weakness is moving out in tandem with Harvey which is accelerating northeastward. We also know that the subtropical ridge is filling in briskly. We know that the ridge will be reinforced from the northwest and that traditionally, ridges that build in this time of year are extremely formidable, while weaknesses often wane.
It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. The model data do not take the weekend off. We get the same data whether it's a weekend or a weekday.
What elysium is saying is that the better forecasters are not there to collect the data as well, so the data initialized into the models is not of the same quality as it is during the week, and so the outputs are not of the same quality. Continuity (due to lack of better info) might also be a large part of why the forecast hasn't varied much. This track is not that well defined because the regular mets haven't seen it since the first run (became TD at 5pm on Friday - I'd be well on my way home by the time the TWO came out!). Just wait for some better runs to come out at 12Z tomorrow, and then take the models seriously.
elysium wrote:
Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture.
...There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS.
gkrangers wrote:I think its absurd to say the weekend forecasters aren't as good as the middle of the week forecasters. Weather doesn't take the weekend off..neither do these guys.WindRunner wrote:wxman57 wrote:elysium wrote:The thing that a lot of people are not taking into consideration is that the NHC and the rest of the meteorlogical community are taking what will probably be their last weekend off for some time. No one wants to rock the boat and even suggest anything other than that there is no need to be overly concerned about Irene. The weekend is the worst possible time to try to aquire updated model guidance since really, we are not talking about weather machines but weathermen and women who control the data that is being processed. Yes, there is a skeleton crew on hand, but no one wants to put out information that might suspend his colleage's time off. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast on Monday if necessary.
The NWS is also almost non-existant on weekends unless there is something out there within a reasonable proximity to land.
Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture. What you will never see on this Sunday is a 5 day track that accounts for the possibility of an abrupt turn to the west or west-southwest on day 4 or 5. You may see this tomorrow or Tuesday, but never on this Sunday. You might hear mention, though, of a possible erratic course or of some of the models hinting at anti-cyclone.
One of the posters here presented his scenario for Irene in 3 days from now, showing how Irene would move up into the weakness, but in order for Irene to do so, it entailed that the weakness in the rige remain in a static, stationary position. We all know that the ridge weakness is moving out in tandem with Harvey which is accelerating northeastward. We also know that the subtropical ridge is filling in briskly. We know that the ridge will be reinforced from the northwest and that traditionally, ridges that build in this time of year are extremely formidable, while weaknesses often wane.
It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. The model data do not take the weekend off. We get the same data whether it's a weekend or a weekday.
What elysium is saying is that the better forecasters are not there to collect the data as well, so the data initialized into the models is not of the same quality as it is during the week, and so the outputs are not of the same quality. Continuity (due to lack of better info) might also be a large part of why the forecast hasn't varied much. This track is not that well defined because the regular mets haven't seen it since the first run (became TD at 5pm on Friday - I'd be well on my way home by the time the TWO came out!). Just wait for some better runs to come out at 12Z tomorrow, and then take the models seriously.
cycloneye wrote:THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES
NOT RETURN THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.
The above from discussion of 5 PM Advisorie.What we have to watch in the next 6-12 hours is if convection wraps around the primary center and if that not occurs then poof.
clfenwi wrote:
What is suggested here is false
The people who are NWS/NHC forecasters work are shift workers, they are not M-F, 9-5 people. The people who work the day job are not forecasters, they are either researchers or higher level staff.
Forecasters do not collect data. Nearly all observations all automated. Upper level air data is about 95% of what it is during the week as it occurs 2x a day 7 days a week. The only exceptions are places like Eglin AFB, which are not NWS offices.
Again, there are no M-F 9-5 forecasters.
clfenwi wrote:WindRunner wrote:wxman57 wrote:elysium wrote:The thing that a lot of people are not taking into consideration is that the NHC and the rest of the meteorlogical community are taking what will probably be their last weekend off for some time. No one wants to rock the boat and even suggest anything other than that there is no need to be overly concerned about Irene. The weekend is the worst possible time to try to aquire updated model guidance since really, we are not talking about weather machines but weathermen and women who control the data that is being processed. Yes, there is a skeleton crew on hand, but no one wants to put out information that might suspend his colleage's time off. There will be plenty of time to adjust the forecast on Monday if necessary.
The NWS is also almost non-existant on weekends unless there is something out there within a reasonable proximity to land.
Irene may find the weakness and recurve. More likely, however, on Monday, we will begin seeing new guidance introduced that will give more creedence to the subtropical ridge as Harvey accelerates out of the picture. What you will never see on this Sunday is a 5 day track that accounts for the possibility of an abrupt turn to the west or west-southwest on day 4 or 5. You may see this tomorrow or Tuesday, but never on this Sunday. You might hear mention, though, of a possible erratic course or of some of the models hinting at anti-cyclone.
One of the posters here presented his scenario for Irene in 3 days from now, showing how Irene would move up into the weakness, but in order for Irene to do so, it entailed that the weakness in the rige remain in a static, stationary position. We all know that the ridge weakness is moving out in tandem with Harvey which is accelerating northeastward. We also know that the subtropical ridge is filling in briskly. We know that the ridge will be reinforced from the northwest and that traditionally, ridges that build in this time of year are extremely formidable, while weaknesses often wane.
It's a certainty that the scenario just outlined detailing a sharp turn to the west will gain serious credibility on Monday, and will likely be the official forecast on Tuesday. There is no way that Irene is going to recurve. By Wednesday we may even see forecasts presented that include within them the possibility of Irene heading W.S.W. for a short time. We might even be seeing the no recurvatue forecasts now if the entire crew was on hand, but it is not. Allow the full staff of the NHC to sit down, along with the NWS. Give them the opportunity to assimilate all pertinent data. If you do this before rushing to ill conceived judgments without all the facts, you might find, surprisingly, that not every hurricane turns to fish.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. The model data do not take the weekend off. We get the same data whether it's a weekend or a weekday.
What elysium is saying is that the better forecasters are not there to collect the data as well, so the data initialized into the models is not of the same quality as it is during the week, and so the outputs are not of the same quality. Continuity (due to lack of better info) might also be a large part of why the forecast hasn't varied much. This track is not that well defined because the regular mets haven't seen it since the first run (became TD at 5pm on Friday - I'd be well on my way home by the time the TWO came out!). Just wait for some better runs to come out at 12Z tomorrow, and then take the models seriously.
What is suggested here is false
The people who are NWS/NHC forecasters work are shift workers, they are not M-F, 9-5 people. The people who work the day job are not forecasters, they are either researchers or higher level staff.
Forecasters do not collect data. Nearly all observations all automated. Upper level air data is about 95% of what it is during the week as it occurs 2x a day 7 days a week. The only exceptions are places like Eglin AFB, which are not NWS offices.
Again, there are no M-F 9-5 forecasters.
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