west movement

[Mac]

Air force met... may i ask you something? why don't you want this to hit land?

I would like to officially nominate this post for "Silliest Post of the Day" award.

I think the term "silly" is being way to kind to this post....

Well, I was trying to maintain a civil tone while still getting my point across.

[ThunderMate]

I did not mean that as an insult as all of you think..i simply meant that even with facts why would you not want this to be fun tracking instead of just GOING OUT TO SEA. Sorry gosh!

[storms in NC]

Air force met... may i ask you something? why don't you want this to hit land?

Are you kidding me? I've already deleted one post from this thread. Keep it a civil discussion and show a little respect for the mets who offer their thoughts and expertise on here for free, taking time away from their jobs and lives.

You don't have to agree, but that is nothing but an insult above. He's posting fact, whether it agrees with those who want a landfall or not.

Very well put. We have no control to where a storm goes.

[Frank P]

AFM, your last post was absolutely terrific...

thanks

[vbhoutex]

Air force met... may i ask you something? why don't you want this to hit land?

Are you kidding me? I've already deleted one post from this thread. Keep it a civil discussion and show a little respect for the mets who offer their thoughts and expertise on here for free, taking time away from their jobs and lives.

You don't have to agree, but that is nothing but an insult above. He's posting fact, whether it agrees with those who want a landfall or not.

There have now been two posts deleted. I back SG 100%. The insults must stop now or staff will be forced to take more drastic actions.

[deltadog03]

i like the stuff he is providing to us...i just want to start measuring movement from the time when we got the center fix from recon..not a judgment call at 11am

[Mac]

I did not mean that as an insult as all of you think..i simply meant that even with facts why would you not want this to be fun tracking instead of just GOING OUT TO SEA. Sorry gosh!

Because the "fun" for us--and I will grant you that we all do enjoy tracking potentially threatening hurricanes--will amount to great loss and sadness for the people where this thing impacts land.

[swimaster20]

AFM, thanks for that post that should prove it is still moving pretty much NW (even though it is still technically considered WNW)

[Steve H.]

Agree AFM, need some more data points.

[weatherwoman]

please stop fussing and focus on the discussion, on wether or not you see a west movement, i only ask this question becasue i saw it and wanted to know if it was for real, lets get back to what we are here for, dont cut eachother down

[Air Force Met]

Air force met... may i ask you something? why don't you want this to hit land?

Why do you WANT it to hit land? That's a pretty sick question. Why would ANYONE want it to hit land except they are demented and really don't care about others or their property.

Go stand at a mirror and ask yourself why you don't want it to go out to sea. To ask someone why they don't want it to hit land implies that you do want it to. That's sad.

I am a pro-Met. I don't make forecasts or observations based on what I want. I make them according to the data I see. I don't pick out a model that agrees with me and thus go only with that model. I base my decisions on data. I look at sat loops. I look at climo. I don't wish cast...so to answer your question...I don't want anything...just to make the best forecast possible. Wanting something to happen implies you put emotion into your forecasting (in a bad way)...and that is no way to make a forecast. If you look at all the posts on this forum and people who say "it's gonna do this..." or "it will NOT do that..."...you will find that none of them are pro-mets. Why? Because this is what we do and we realize the complexity of the atmosphere...and that you can never say never in most things (yes...it will NOT snow here in Houston in August...at least not until the next ice age). I have never said it will recurve...just the climo shows it will and that you better have a good reason to forecast something that has never happened before. I have forecasted records...but I had good reasons for it. No emotion...just objectivity.

[Mac]

Air force met... may i ask you something? why don't you want this to hit land?

Why do you WANT it to hit land? That's a pretty sick question. Why would ANYONE want it to hit land except they are demented and really don't care about others or their property.

Go stand at a mirror and ask yourself why you don't want it to go out to sea. To ask someone why they don't want it to hit land implies that you do want it to. That's sad.

I am a pro-Met. I don't make forecasts or observations based on what I want. I make them according to the data I see. I don't pick out a model that agrees with me and thus go only with that model. I base my decisions on data. I look at sat loops. I look at climo. I don't wish cast...so to answer your question...I don't want anything...just to make the best forecast possible. Wanting something to happen implies you put emotion into your forecasting (in a bad way)...and that is no way to make a forecast. If you look at all the posts on this forum and people who say "it's gonna do this..." or "it will NOT do that..."...you will find that none of them are pro-mets. Why? Because this is what we do and we realize the complexity of the atmosphere...and that you can never say never in most things (yes...it will NOT snow here in Houston in August...at least not until the next ice age). I have never said it will recurve...just the climo shows it will and that you better have a good reason to forecast something that has never happened before. I have forecasted records...but I had good reasons for it. No emotion...just objectivity.

That's a lot of wasted key strokes for a post that really didn't warrant a reply from you.

AFM, I've been reading your forecasts for a couple of years now and you are, in my mind, one of the most reliable forecasters around. Put your energy into doing what you do best, because there are many of us around here that truly appreciate your insight and effort.

[Air Force Met]

I did not mean that as an insult as all of you think..i simply meant that even with facts why would you not want this to be fun tracking instead of just GOING OUT TO SEA. Sorry gosh!

Two serious questions for you:
1) How old are you? I ask that because that does make a difference sometimes and we do have teenages posting here from time to time.

2) How many hurricanes have you been through that damaged something you worked hard to buy...like a house or car?

[Agua]

Air force met... may i ask you something? why don't you want this to hit land?

omg

[Air Force Met]

i like the stuff he is providing to us...i just want to start measuring movement from the time when we got the center fix from recon..not a judgment call at 11am

And that is a good idea. I am not saying it is moving at 297...just that the diff between the positions is 297 and the thing is still on track...but a little slow.

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

Air force met... may i ask you something? why don't you want this to hit land?

Why do you WANT it to hit land? That's a pretty sick question. Why would ANYONE want it to hit land except they are demented and really don't care about others or their property.

Go stand at a mirror and ask yourself why you don't want it to go out to sea. To ask someone why they don't want it to hit land implies that you do want it to. That's sad.

I am a pro-Met. I don't make forecasts or observations based on what I want. I make them according to the data I see. I don't pick out a model that agrees with me and thus go only with that model. I base my decisions on data. I look at sat loops. I look at climo. I don't wish cast...so to answer your question...I don't want anything...just to make the best forecast possible. Wanting something to happen implies you put emotion into your forecasting (in a bad way)...and that is no way to make a forecast. If you look at all the posts on this forum and people who say "it's gonna do this..." or "it will NOT do that..."...you will find that none of them are pro-mets. Why? Because this is what we do and we realize the complexity of the atmosphere...and that you can never say never in most things (yes...it will NOT snow here in Houston in August...at least not until the next ice age). I have never said it will recurve...just the climo shows it will and that you better have a good reason to forecast something that has never happened before. I have forecasted records...but I had good reasons for it. No emotion...just objectivity.

[bmoreorless]

Great stuff, AFM, both the forecasting and the insight to your work.

Question -- what does the slowing mean for the forecast track? Does it make Irene more or less likely to recurve?

[weatherwoman]

from your pro. insite what do you think it is going to do? Do the people on the coast of North Carolina have anything to worry about or is it from what you know right now is it going to go out to sea? Just want to know cause i live in carteret co nc

[Ivanhater]

i like the stuff he is providing to us...i just want to start measuring movement from the time when we got the center fix from recon..not a judgment call at 11am

exactly

[KWT]

Hi AFM,great post there and it is all true,however just a quick question,why do mention teenagers like you do???
Just seems like your being a tad sterotypical to me,not all teenagers like a arguement like some would think.

I do agree with what your saying mind,just abit curious thats all!

(ps,I don't want a storm to hit anywhere,simply due to the horror they can cause,even strong tropical storms can be a problem.)