TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[dwg71]

From this point on I am only listening to the NHC

and of course EF Hutton...

[Stratosphere747]

AFM...

Is there even a distinct center yet? Still seems as if it is very broad and seems to still have a small centers popping up here and there when running a 30 loop run on the GHC site.

It also looks to be taking that more westward movement as that the NHC forecasted.

Scott

[Zadok]

and his thoughts would be just as reckless as they were before.

Well sitting here in a rental apartment in West palm Beach after going through Frances and Jeanne last year his "thoughts" don't seem all that reckless to me. I would like to hear them. As far as I know he never personally attacted anyone although he came under personal attack himself.

[Air Force Met]

AFM...

Is there even a distinct center yet? Still seems as if it is very broad and seems to still have a small centers popping up here and there when running a 30 loop run on the GHC site.

It also looks to be taking that more westward movement as that the NHC forecasted.

Scott

There is a distinct center because they have a vortex message...but it is elongated...especially in the mid-levels. YOu can see the elongated MLC by watching the long-range Miami loop. People must remember that the precip you see out on the edge of the radar is not at the sfc...but in the mid and upper levels...because of line-of-sight problems (round earth...straight beam). With the upper low movins SW of Kat...it's stretching the circulation E-W...which should (SHOULD) begin to move it more in that direction over the next 12 hours.

[FlSteel]

Thanks AFM for that explanation. That does clear things up for me.

[Sanibel]

You can see the imperfect center on radar. This should keep the intensity down.

[Air Force Met]

and his thoughts would be just as reckless as they were before.

Well sitting here in a rental apartment in West palm Beach after going through Frances and Jeanne last year his "thoughts" don't seem all that reckless to me. I would like to hear them. As far as I know he never personally attacted anyone although he came under personal attack himself.

Maybe we define reckless differently. Making a forecast with no data to back you up...including some very bad observations (garbage in...garbage out) over a couple-week period...and then never backing it up or debating an issue when people bring up your flawed data...only then to change your mind 180 degrees the other way...is what I define as reckless...and when you do that...you bring on personal attacks yourself.

Now...a big problem people have here (epsecially new people) is they think this board is like other boards (no names) where you can make off the wall predictions (like Great One...he whose name is not mentioned) without any accountability. This is not that type of board. This is a board for serious discussions (most of the time) about the tropics...not a place for wild speculation (which in his case was made as if it were FACT) without rebuttal. If that is the kind of board people want (where you can have any unbased opinion count as equally as anyone's elses and where you are never challenged or held accountable)...then this is not the place for them.

Nto all "opinions" are equal....and even though this is a free society where opinions should be heard...not every opinion MUST be heard. Nobody has the right to be heard...only the right to say it....but not the right to make people hear it. Not all opinions are equal...and frankly...a lot of opinions are worthless and not based on anything other than pure speculation and wishes. If that's the kind of place people want...then they need to look elsewhere...because that is mpt Storm2K....and this is the EXACT reason I am here and not on other boards...because by and large...these people are serious about the weather and want to get it right...rather than just make some wild guesses and say "oh well" when they blow it time after time.

[wxwatcher91]

can somebody explain what is going on with Katrina... it looks like her center (or what I think her center is) is moving wicked fast of toward the west with lots of convection trailing of to the east and south... she doesnt look that good...

what is going on?

[mahicks]

and his thoughts would be just as reckless as they were before.

Well sitting here in a rental apartment in West palm Beach after going through Frances and Jeanne last year his "thoughts" don't seem all that reckless to me. I would like to hear them. As far as I know he never personally attacted anyone although he came under personal attack himself.

Maybe we define reckless differently. Making a forecast with no data to back you up...including some very bad observations (garbage in...garbage out) over a couple-week period...and then never backing it up or debating an issue when people bring up your flawed data...only then to change your mind 180 degrees the other way...is what I define as reckless...and when you do that...you bring on personal attacks yourself.

Now...a big problem people have here (epsecially new people) is they think this board is like other boards (no names) where you can make off the wall predictions (like Great One...he whose name is not mentioned) without any accountability. This is not that type of board. This is a board for serious discussions (most of the time) about the tropics...not a place for wild speculation (which in his case was made as if it were FACT) without rebuttal. If that is the kind of board people want (where you can have any unbased opinion count as equally as anyone's elses and where you are never challenged or held accountable)...then this is not the place for them.

Nto all "opinions" are equal....and even though this is a free society where opinions should be heard...not every opinion MUST be heard. Nobody has the right to be heard...only the right to say it....but not the right to make people hear it. Not all opinions are equal...and frankly...a lot of opinions are worthless and not based on anything other than pure speculation and wishes. If that's the kind of place people want...then they need to look elsewhere...because that is mpt Storm2K....and this is the EXACT reason I am here and not on other boards...because by and large...these people are serious about the weather and want to get it right...rather than just make some wild guesses and say "oh well" when they blow it time after time.

great post AFM!

[FlSteel]

It almost looks like she has ingested some dry air into her center and that is preventing her from strengthening too much. TWC said that the press has dropped 3mb. So I guess she is beginning to strengthen some.

[Sanibel]

It has impacted the ridge and taken a structure shock. See if it snaps back together.


Anyone else see the heart-shaped "arrow" the storm is making? And where it "points"?

[Stormcenter]

Well at 5pm the NHC says Katrina is moving NW at 9mph.
What am I missing on satellite and radar. It sure looks like she's
moving w or wnw the last 6 hours. But hey if the NHC says it's moving
NW then it's moving NW.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/radar/loop/D ... kamx.shtml

[sweetpea]

It has impacted the ridge and taken a structure shock. See if it snaps back together.


Anyone else see the heart-shaped "arrow" the storm is making? And where it "points"?

link please?

[Rainband]

Well at 5pm the NHC says Katrina is moving NW at 9mph.
What am I missing on satellite and radar. It sure looks like she's
moving w or wnw the last 6 hours. But hey if the NHC says it's moving
NW then it's moving NW.

http://www.srh.weather.gov/radar/loop/D ... kamx.shtml

NHC says it's moving
NW then it's moving NW Exactly

[Agua]

It has impacted the ridge and taken a structure shock. See if it snaps back together.


Anyone else see the heart-shaped "arrow" the storm is making? And where it "points"?

Yup.

[JTD]

Regarding any mention that Katrina is now an open wave, please see this:
...KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...

[ROCK]

and his thoughts would be just as reckless as they were before.

Well sitting here in a rental apartment in West palm Beach after going through Frances and Jeanne last year his "thoughts" don't seem all that reckless to me. I would like to hear them. As far as I know he never personally attacted anyone although he came under personal attack himself.

Maybe we define reckless differently. Making a forecast with no data to back you up...including some very bad observations (garbage in...garbage out) over a couple-week period...and then never backing it up or debating an issue when people bring up your flawed data...only then to change your mind 180 degrees the other way...is what I define as reckless...and when you do that...you bring on personal attacks yourself.

Now...a big problem people have here (epsecially new people) is they think this board is like other boards (no names) where you can make off the wall predictions (like Great One...he whose name is not mentioned) without any accountability. This is not that type of board. This is a board for serious discussions (most of the time) about the tropics...not a place for wild speculation (which in his case was made as if it were FACT) without rebuttal. If that is the kind of board people want (where you can have any unbased opinion count as equally as anyone's elses and where you are never challenged or held accountable)...then this is not the place for them.

Nto all "opinions" are equal....and even though this is a free society where opinions should be heard...not every opinion MUST be heard. Nobody has the right to be heard...only the right to say it....but not the right to make people hear it. Not all opinions are equal...and frankly...a lot of opinions are worthless and not based on anything other than pure speculation and wishes. If that's the kind of place people want...then they need to look elsewhere...because that is mpt Storm2K....and this is the EXACT reason I am here and not on other boards...because by and large...these people are serious about the weather and want to get it right...rather than just make some wild guesses and say "oh well" when they blow it time after time.

great write up...I agree all the way up to the last paragraph where you totally lost me.....

[x-y-no]

It almost looks like she has ingested some dry air into her center and that is preventing her from strengthening too much. TWC said that the press has dropped 3mb. So I guess she is beginning to strengthen some.

Stewart mentions this in the discussion - says that's what's impeding rapid intensification.

WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A
NORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS
JUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH
LESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO
111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH
SSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY
AIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD
LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.

[Astro_man92]

Question: Right now if Katrina traveled over a populated area would it do much of anything???




EDIT: OH and another Question

Question: Since Katrina hasn't developed a structual eye wall (I think) will it continue to stengthen overland? and if you know what i'm talking about is it called a structual eye wall? I can't remember who said this but he/she was saying that if Katrina developed a stuctual eye wall or something like that over the GOM it would just bottom out and Intensifly very very rapidly because of the really warm water and the light or no sheer.

can some one tell me what I'm talking about or if I'm right and possibly awsner my questions. I'm feeling really dumb right now

[x-y-no]

Question: right now if Katrina traveled over a populated area would it do much of anything???

Not so much. It's a big rain event right now, that's all.

Things could change before Florida landfall, though.