East of Bahamas,East GOM Possible Developments Thread

[Scorpion]

No rain for us please. It just ruins the day and make it depressing.

[Deb321]

No rain for us please. It just ruins the day and make it depressing.

We have had quite a bit of rain here in St Lucie County lately. Especially last week. The last 3 days it has rained here off and on just enough to keep the ground wet. Last Tuesday we had torrential rain, gusty winds and even some hail. I think I heard that had something to do with sea breezes or something???

[StormFury]

Can we get back to the original topic? Instead of this talk about rain, how about talk about tropical development east of the Bahamas?Thanks

[gatorcane]

We have had quite a bit of rain here in St Lucie County lately. Especially last week. The last 3 days it has rained here off and on just enough to keep the ground wet. Last Tuesday we had torrential rain, gusty winds and even some hail. I think I heard that had something to do with sea breezes or something???

Here in S. Florida, a deep easterly tropical flow is bringing Atlantic showers in from time to time and throughout the nighttime hours. Lots of rain here in Boca Raton this whole summer.

[bvigal]

One difference between this and the two waves/later lows that became Katrina and Rita. When they came through here, there was a LOT of energy - strong gusty winds (what became Katrina I had 60mph gusts up here at 1,000 ft, it blew furniture across the porch, and down at water level they measured 55mph). Today we had little of no winds, even in the thunderstorms.

The wave/trough axis isnt quite over you yet from my estimation, you will likely get some weather later tonight through tommorow from this feature.


So is this a trough or a wave or a combo of both?

Well, according to quote I already posted, NHC definitely does not include it in waves, and definitely calls it a trough. Who knows? Maybe the 2am will call it a wave. It's beginning to extend even farther south. Look at the convection firing up east of the Windwards, along the same line!

We are at 64W and it is at 65, per NHC. But right now it's pouring hard, and sounds windy. I'm going out to see...

Edit: just rain, no wind - even my plastic chairs haven't budged.

[vaffie]

That low east of the Bahamas on IR Satellite loop really looks like it's fighting tooth and nail against very strong shear. I would not be surprised at all if it develops quickly when the shear is gone. It's forecast to reach the Central Gulf south of Louisiana--if Stan is still looping in the Bay of Campeche, I wonder if it could be pulled further west towards Texas... That would not be good. On a sidenote, did you know that the BAMM has the low in the Pacific pulled east across Mexico by Stan to Cozumel in a few days? Now that would be strange. If that happened would it develop and pull the Bahamas low somewhere unusual too like west. It's gonna be an interesting next 10 days in the tropics, that's for sure.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That low east of the Bahamas on IR Satellite loop really looks like it's fighting tooth and nail against very strong shear. I would not be surprised at all if it develops quickly when the shear is gone. It's forecast to reach the Central Gulf south of Louisiana--if Stan is still looping in the Bay of Campeche, I wonder if it could be pulled further west towards Texas... That would not be good. On a sidenote, did you know that the BAMM has the low in the Pacific pulled east across Mexico by Stan to Cozumel in a few days? Now that would be strange. If that happened would it develop and pull the Bahamas low somewhere unusual too like west. It's gonna be an interesting next 10 days in the tropics, that's for sure.

Nooo! Don't make it go west- make it go across FL to give me some
good rains.
BRING ON THE RAIN BABY it's been so dry in tampa bay
no rain since late august.

[EmeraldCoast1]

Seems models are usually too FAST and if this holds true with this "area of concern" , then none of us can predict what will happen by late week.

[THead]

Nooo! Don't make it go west- make it go across FL to give me some
good rains.
BRING ON THE RAIN BABY it's been so dry in tampa bay
no rain since late august.

That's amazing, no rain since august. We've been getting drenched here.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Nooo! Don't make it go west- make it go across FL to give me some
good rains.
BRING ON THE RAIN BABY it's been so dry in tampa bay
no rain since late august.

That's amazing, no rain since august. We've been getting drenched here.

Well we have had a few light showers that produced about 0.15 in. in
total at my location but all the heavy stuff has stayed in south FL.

Tampa Bay rain chances shoot up mid-week. Hopefully
this system will stay weak and not go too tropical. Hopefully
just rain and not much more.

[cycloneye]

657
ABNT20 KNHC 030249
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAN...LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


Same as the 5:30 PM outlook in other words nothing new.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

How powerful can a hybird system get? Category 1? Category 2?

[bvigal]

Here's that area east on Windwards, but along this trough... or is it a wave?

[THead]

Bvigal, that area definitely seems to be the "meat" of the trough tonight. Will be interested to see what the pros think.

[Brent]

That thing east of the Windwards sort of came out of nowhere...

[wxmann_91]

Keep in mind that shear across the Atlantic is already greater than progged, and that the anticyclone over Stan combined with Stan's outflow will shear the eastern GOM and western Atlantic to death, ain't nothing that can develop until Stan moves out of the way. It's somewhat like the situation with Rita and Phillipe.

[Recurve]

Keep in mind that shear across the Atlantic is already greater than progged, and that the anticyclone over Stan combined with Stan's outflow will shear the eastern GOM and western Atlantic to death, ain't nothing that can develop until Stan moves out of the way. It's somewhat like the situation with Rita and Phillipe.

Yeah, what he said.

If we get the low/trough from the Bahamas sitting over us, sucking up the tail of Stan and the wave, could be gusty and rainy in a few days -- perfect October weather.


*****
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
***********

[abajan]

:eek:

That thing east of the Windwards sort of came out of nowhere...

According to the TWD, it's just part of the ITCZ.

[Zadok]

It looks a little better this morning. Still a lot of shear though.

[Typhoon_Willie]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030930
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM STAN... LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
320 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY


Local met here in West Palm Beach mentions the possibility of development with this system.