TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Ivanhater]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR (AL242005) ON 20051016 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051016 0000 051016 1200 051017 0000 051017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 78.9W 17.5N 79.4W 17.4N 79.6W 17.0N 80.0W
BAMM 17.3N 78.9W 17.7N 79.7W 17.7N 80.2W 17.3N 80.6W
A98E 17.3N 78.9W 17.0N 79.2W 17.1N 79.9W 17.0N 80.6W
LBAR 17.3N 78.9W 17.8N 79.5W 18.5N 79.8W 19.4N 80.0W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051018 0000 051019 0000 051020 0000 051021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 80.6W 16.1N 82.2W 16.6N 83.5W 18.2N 83.7W
BAMM 16.8N 81.4W 15.7N 83.0W 15.6N 83.8W 17.2N 83.7W
A98E 16.8N 81.4W 16.7N 83.3W 16.6N 85.4W 16.4N 87.3W
LBAR 20.7N 80.0W 24.0N 78.6W 28.3N 73.8W 32.7N 66.1W
SHIP 53KTS 68KTS 77KTS 78KTS
DSHP 53KTS 68KTS 77KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 78.9W DIRCUR = 225DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 78.4W DIRM12 = 253DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 76.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Ivanhater you are right as the center is more south.

yay! i got one right, lol

[Stratosphere747]

Brent this in not Mitch.

I didn't say it was... I was just pointing out that Mitch was originally going to go north.

This does have similarites, but I doubt it goes into Central America like Mitch did.

Why do you doubt it would not go into C America? Synoptic reasoning’s?

Scott

[fasterdisaster]

What are the winds?

[markymark8]

Its bigger but looks more disorganized tonight near the core. Things can change fast though.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

wow - bam only takes it up to 78 kts - like the sound of that better than the others!

I think SHIPS is way slow with the intensification of this system. WV imagery shows excellent outflow and now that convection is firing around the center I see no reason Wilma (very soon) will not reach hurricane strength within 2 days at the outside. I am aware of no negative factors for intensification.

[fasterdisaster]

wow - bam only takes it up to 78 kts - like the sound of that better than the others!

I think SHIPS is way slow with the intensification of this system. WV imagery shows excellent outflow and now that convection is firing around the center I see no reason Wilma (very soon) will not reach hurricane strength within 2 days at the outside. I am aware of no negative factors for intensification.

Yes, it has good outflow and it is getting a little better organized. I think the reason it looks disorganized to some is because it has a broad circulation.

[no advance]

Yes it is getting better organized. The conch republic better watch out on this one. Backside attack.

[Brent]

Brent this in not Mitch.

I didn't say it was... I was just pointing out that Mitch was originally going to go north.

This does have similarites, but I doubt it goes into Central America like Mitch did.

Why do you doubt it would not go into C America? Synoptic reasoning’s?

Scott

Pretty much...

[Weatherfreak14]

How much is the threat of a flordia landfall? Can this cross flordia into the atlantic?

[markymark8]

With it having such a broad area of center circulation it might take longer for it to get organized and turn in to a Hurricane. You all see any signs yet of it wanting to tighten up in the core and thumderstorms wrap around it??? It seems to me it needs alot of filling in to do.

[Stratosphere747]

Brent this in not Mitch.

I didn't say it was... I was just pointing out that Mitch was originally going to go north.

This does have similarites, but I doubt it goes into Central America like Mitch did.

Why do you doubt it would not go into C America? Synoptic reasoning’s?

Scott

Pretty much...

LOL...Good explanation...

[Brent]

How much is the threat of a flordia landfall? Can this cross flordia into the atlantic?

Major threat. Most likely of any state in the U.S. mainland... and yes, if it does hit Florida it will almost certainly re-emerge into the Atlantic.

[krysof]

How much is the threat of a flordia landfall? Can this cross flordia into the atlantic?

Major threat. Most likely of any state in the U.S. mainland... and yes, if it does hit Florida it will almost certainly re-emerge into the Atlantic.

could it hit south florida and head NNE making another landfall in NC or further north, kind of like Charley

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

How much is the threat of a flordia landfall? Can this cross flordia into the atlantic?

Major threat. Most likely of any state in the U.S. mainland... and yes, if it does hit Florida it will almost certainly re-emerge into the Atlantic.

Yup...
Florida has to watch this very closely

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

How much is the threat of a flordia landfall? Can this cross flordia into the atlantic?

Major threat. Most likely of any state in the U.S. mainland... and yes, if it does hit Florida it will almost certainly re-emerge into the Atlantic.

could it hit south florida and head NNE making another landfall in NC or further north, kind of like Charley

Yes it could...that's why people on the atlantic side need to watch
this in case it reemerges over the atlantic and heads up
the eastern seaboard.

[Weatherfreak14]

Can I say surfs up for east coast then. LOL anyway I wonder if it makes landfall as a cat 3 in flordia and remerges in the atlantic how strong will it be?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Can I say surfs up for east coast then. LOL anyway I wonder if it makes landfall as a cat 3 in flordia and remerges in the atlantic how strong will it be?

If that were to happen, you could get some real big surf in 8-10 days

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There doe's not seem to be a central core. In the cirualtion is still broad...Convection has formed in bands away from the LLC. Very slow development is likely...But no more.

[Damar91]

Anyone see this?

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Caymans

The chairman of the Cayman Islands' National Hurricane Center, Donovan Ebanks, said authorities had been monitoring the weather for several days.

"Because of where it is, and the fact that it is projected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow and possibly a hurricane in a couple of days, we've decided to go ahead and issue a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch," he said.

link:http://wireservice.wired.com/wired/story.asp?section=Breaking&storyId=1102850&tw=wn_wire_story

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Strong convection on north side