90L Invest SW Caribbean

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tampaflwx
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#141 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:36 pm

n o o d l z wrote:Do you think they'll upgrade if it turns annular in the next 24 hours? :roflmao: :roflmao:


That's something I probably wouldn't have said/included rofl smilies with. :roll:
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mtm4319
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#142 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:36 pm

Over eight hours ago, I mentioned the possibility of a TD today with this one. Look on page 5 a few posts down. 8-)
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n o o d l z
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#143 Postby n o o d l z » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:41 pm

tampaflwx wrote:
n o o d l z wrote:Do you think they'll upgrade if it turns annular in the next 24 hours? :roflmao: :roflmao:


That's something I probably wouldn't have said/included rofl smilies with. :roll:


:roll: I'm just saying, do they really have to wait for recon to get out there? This isn't very far off shore and could make landfall anytime soon, why wait for recon reports to come in?
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tampaflwx
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#144 Postby tampaflwx » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:43 pm

n o o d l z wrote:
tampaflwx wrote:
n o o d l z wrote:Do you think they'll upgrade if it turns annular in the next 24 hours? :roflmao: :roflmao:


That's something I probably wouldn't have said/included rofl smilies with. :roll:


:roll: I'm just saying, do they really have to wait for recon to get out there? This isn't very far off shore and could make landfall anytime soon, why wait for recon reports to come in?


maybe they like surprises?
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curtadams
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#145 Postby curtadams » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:43 pm

It's not yet a "NHC standard" depression. They like to see LLC, ULC, and convection co-localized, and running for a little while together. Right now there's a distinct LLC at 10N 81W, but the convection peak is around 13N 80W and the ULC is indistinct. So there are still competing centers.
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Derek Ortt

#146 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:58 pm

dont think it is quite yet a TD, but should be soon

could be a cane for nicaragua
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#147 Postby Anonymous » Wed Oct 26, 2005 7:27 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:dont think it is quite yet a TD, but should be soon

could be a cane for nicaragua


You think it will deepen that much? I think maybe weak TS.
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fasterdisaster
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#148 Postby fasterdisaster » Wed Oct 26, 2005 7:35 pm

How fast is it moving?
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cycloneye
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#149 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 7:39 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20051027 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 0000 051027 1200 051028 0000 051028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 81.6W 11.9N 82.7W 12.6N 83.7W 13.3N 85.0W
BAMM 11.0N 81.6W 11.8N 82.6W 12.4N 83.6W 12.9N 84.6W
A98E 11.0N 81.6W 11.4N 82.7W 11.8N 84.0W 12.4N 85.4W
LBAR 11.0N 81.6W 12.1N 82.5W 13.5N 83.3W 15.5N 84.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 0000 051030 0000 051031 0000 051101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 86.3W 14.0N 89.2W 13.7N 93.2W 13.6N 97.6W
BAMM 13.2N 85.9W 12.8N 89.1W 11.8N 93.8W 11.3N 98.7W
A98E 12.9N 87.3W 14.7N 91.0W 15.6N 95.0W 16.4N 98.2W
LBAR 17.6N 84.9W 21.7N 84.1W 25.7N 79.9W 30.8N 70.6W
SHIP 59KTS 60KTS 50KTS 41KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

00:00z Models.Moving at 6 kts at 290 degrees.The winds are now at 30kts.
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Duffy
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#150 Postby Duffy » Wed Oct 26, 2005 7:51 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:dont think it is quite yet a TD, but should be soon

could be a cane for nicaragua


You think it will deepen that much? I think maybe weak TS.


Im suprised Floydbuster, you're usually pretty bullish/aggressive with your forecasting
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#151 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 7:59 pm

Image

Graphic of the 00:00z Models.All models including GFDL go to EPAC except the LBAR.
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HurricaneQueen
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#152 Postby HurricaneQueen » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:08 pm

Please stop referring this to another Wilma!!!! We've had ENOUGH already. :roll: :cry: Many still w/o electricity and water and some severe damages to beach condos. That's just in Naples. It's even worse south of here and on the East Coast from what I hear.

Lynn
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Thunder44
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#153 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:09 pm

0z Models have come out again. TD 26 is coming tonight

181
WHXX01 KWBC 270105
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX (AL262005) ON 20051027 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051027 0000 051027 1200 051028 0000 051028 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 81.6W 11.9N 82.7W 12.6N 83.7W 13.3N 85.0W
BAMM 11.0N 81.6W 11.8N 82.6W 12.4N 83.6W 12.9N 84.6W
A98E 11.0N 81.6W 11.4N 82.7W 11.8N 84.0W 12.4N 85.4W
LBAR 11.0N 81.6W 12.1N 82.5W 13.5N 83.3W 15.5N 84.3W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051029 0000 051030 0000 051031 0000 051101 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 86.3W 14.0N 89.2W 13.7N 93.2W 13.6N 97.6W
BAMM 13.2N 85.9W 12.8N 89.1W 11.8N 93.8W 11.3N 98.7W
A98E 12.9N 87.3W 14.7N 91.0W 15.6N 95.0W 16.4N 98.2W
LBAR 17.6N 84.9W 21.7N 84.1W 25.7N 79.9W 30.8N 70.6W
SHIP 59KTS 60KTS 50KTS 41KTS
DSHP 29KTS 29KTS 19KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 81.6W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 79.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#154 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 26, 2005 8:10 pm

THanks Thunder for that and now I will lock this thread.
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