Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

[superfly]

Weird, this is Vince territory, it's in 23C waters and has 25kt shear over it.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051202 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051202 1200 051203 0000 051203 1200 051204 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.3N 48.8W 34.7N 45.3W 36.2N 42.8W 37.8N 41.2W
BAMM 33.3N 48.8W 34.7N 46.7W 35.6N 45.0W 36.3N 43.2W
A98E 33.3N 48.8W 34.8N 46.3W 35.9N 43.4W 37.2N 40.3W
LBAR 33.3N 48.8W 34.9N 46.2W 36.2N 44.0W 37.3N 42.0W
SHIP 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 60KTS 56KTS 52KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051204 1200 051205 1200 051206 1200 051207 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.0N 39.7W 47.3N 34.2W 54.9N 28.4W 59.5N 36.3W
BAMM 37.2N 40.8W 40.0N 35.0W 41.1N 28.4W 38.3N 21.6W
A98E 39.1N 37.5W 41.5N 31.2W 43.2N 22.4W 39.2N 6.0W
LBAR 38.3N 39.8W 40.9N 34.5W 45.4N 28.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 38KTS 28KTS 20KTS
DSHP 46KTS 38KTS 28KTS 20KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.3N LONCUR = 48.8W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 31.9N LONM12 = 50.6W DIRM12 = 51DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 30.9N LONM24 = 52.0W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 350NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 90NM


The 12:00z Models increases the winds for a third time to 60 kts but not quite to hurricane status.

[HurryKane]

IT'S A CANE!

361
WTNT44 KNHC 021414
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER
...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 01/0920Z
NESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 01/0920Z
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS
IS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE
SEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN
NOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL
THREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
HOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN
TAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND
NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120
HOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

SHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A
SST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING
ALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A
LARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS
SUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INITIAL 02/1500Z 33.7N 48.2W 65 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 34.6N 46.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 35.8N 45.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0000Z 37.0N 43.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.3N 40.7W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1200Z 40.8N 36.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 43.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z 44.5N 29.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

[flhurricaneguy]

is this it or do you think there is more to come in december?

[P.K.]

14th hurricane of the season then.

[cjrciadt]

is this it or do you think there is more to come in december?

Just look here at the models
The NOGAPS develops another low in Vince territory.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cjrciadt]

I thought it's chance would be over now, but she looks like a cane.

[Air Force Met]

I thought it's chance would be over now, but she looks like a cane.

It is a cane now... Hurricane Epsilon.

[cjrciadt]

A Cat2 with 970mb pressure is the MPI for this area

[cjrciadt]

[cycloneye]

The record for more hurricanes in a season expands to 14 now.One word to describe this season is incredible.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I say Epsilon makes Cane Status...

Done deal....

[bombarderoazul]

Hurricane #14!!

Imagine if this storm had moved into warmer waters.

[HURAKAN]

The record for more hurricanes in a season expands to 14 now.One word to describe this season is incredible.

Cindy will probably expand even further the record to 15.

[HURAKAN]

In just one season,

5 Greek Names

2 Greek Hurricanes

1 Major Greek Hurricane

Delta should also be upgraded to hurricane. but that's just my opinion!

[Jim Hughes]

Epsilon's strengthening should not surprise anyone if you have been monitoring space weather activity. We have seen a considerable increase during the prior 36 hours. Especially the last 12 hours.

I wrote about the importance of some energetic particle levels in my AMO discussion. These levels have been reached.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=78570

Certain levels during the past 48 hours have not been seen since around the times of Katrina and Rita.

I will post something later on about what has exactly occurred along with some links.


Jim Hughes

[SkeetoBite]

The record for more hurricanes in a season expands to 14 now.One word to describe this season is incredible.

The sad part is that this could be broken at some point in the near future.

Incredible indeed.

[CajunMama]

The record for more hurricanes in a season expands to 14 now.One word to describe this season is incredible.

The sad part is that this could be broken at some point in the near future.

Incredible indeed.

Let's hope it's not broken for a long long long long time!

[cycloneye]

02/1745 UTC 34.0N 48.1W T4.0/4.0 EPSILON -- Atlantic Ocean


Epsilon continues to be a hurricane this afternoon according to sat estimates.

[cjrciadt]

Still 65knts